Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Can Derrick Henry Go Off on TNF?
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans kick off Week 9 of the NFL on Thursday night. Can Derrick Henry go off on TNF? Read on to see Ben Rajavuori's Thursday Night Football same game parlay.
Ben Rajavuori - November 2, 2023, 4:43 PM EDT
9 minThursday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Can Derrick Henry Go Off on TNF?
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans kick off Week 9 of the NFL on Thursday night on Prime Video. The Titans are coming off a win over the Falcons with their new quarterback, Will Levis, under center. On the other side, The Steelers dropped to 4-3 after a 20-10 loss to the Jaguars. Although tonight might not be a barn-burner featuring two teams, there are young quarterbacks and young players on both sides who are trying to bring their teams to the playoffs. Also, there is money to be made, which is even more important. I have a +575 same-game parlay over at DraftKings that will bring home the bacon tonight.
Titans vs. Steelers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: November 2, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Where to Watch: PRIME VIDEO
Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay
Leg 1: Steelers
Will Levis started in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill last week and threw for four touchdowns, 238 yards, and no picks against the Falcons in a 28-23 win. Levis looked good, but that was his first start ever, and it was against a pretty weak defense. The Steelers are a much stiffer test, especially on a short week. Last week, Levis had the bye week to prepare for the Falcons. Now, he's on three days' notice to travel into Pittsburgh, up against a tough defense. The Titans are 3-4 on the season, but they are 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road (0-1 in neutral site playing Baltimore in London).
Mike Tomlin is also an excellent coach, and he has a 15-1 record in the Steeler's last 16 games against rookie quarterbacks. Tomlin is good at making them uncomfortable in the pocket, and it helps when you have T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith on the edges. The Falcons didn't bring much pressure on Levis last week, but the Steelers will feast on the Titans offensive line, who is also down a starting offensive lineman. Kenny Pickett is back after leaving with an injury last game, which is good, considering how bad Trubisky looked in relief. The Steelers can win this game with their defense, and the Pickett/Johnson connection has looked great since Johnson has returned. I think the Steelers take this one at home.
Leg 2: Derrick Henry O1.5 Receptions
Derrick Henry has hit 2+ receptions in every full game he has played this season except one. He only played 38% of snaps against the Browns in Week 3, but the only other game he didn't get 2+ receptions in was against the Bengals. Henry is a menace on the ground, but he is a good receiver as well, and he will be an easy target for Levis, who may not have much time in the pocket tonight.
Levis looked Henry's and Spears' way a lot last game, with the running back duo combining for seven of Levis' 19 completions. Henry had 4 receptions last week, and against a pass-rush dup like Watt and Highsmith, Levis will have to complete a lot of short throws tonight. This has the feel of a very big game for Henry and Spears, but Spears' line is higher and I think he plays fewer snaps than Henry anyway, so the better value is with Henry.
Leg 3: Derrick Henry O73.5 Rushing Yards
Well, this is basically a Derrick Henry parlay at this point, but I don't mind it. The way to attack this Steeler's defense is on the ground. Yes, the secondary has had issues, and Minkah Fitzpatrick is out, but any time a quarterback drops back against them, T.J. Watt or Alex Highsmith will be there before they can even take a breath. However, while the pass rush is excellent, the rushing defense is porous. In fact, the Steelers are giving up the second-most rushing yards to running backs with 131 per game this season.
Derrick Henry is averaging 75 rushing yards per game this season and is on pace for another 1,500 rushing yards season once again. The Steelers have struggled to contain "average" running backs, so what will they do against one of the best? Henry is a typical workhorse who can easily get 20+ carries, even on a short week. With little prep time on a Thursday night game and a rookie QB making his second start ever, I expect the workload for Henry and Spears to be heavy. The Steelers are 28th in the league allowing 30 rush attempts per game. At that average, Henry should get around 20 and Spears 10, or something like that. Henry would need just 3.7 YPC to pass 73.5 yards on 20 attempts, which feels very doable against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL.
Thursday Night Football Same-Game Parlay (+575) (Bet $100 to collect $675) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Leg 1: Steelers -3 @ -108
- Leg 2: Derrick Henry O1.5 Receptions @ -150
- Leg 3: Derrick Henry O73.5 Rushing Yards @ -115
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