Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Justin Herbert Give Chargers a Spark?
One of the more intriguing matchups on the Week 9 slate is the Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets game on Monday night. Can Justin Herbert give the Chargers a spark on MNF? Matt MacKay provides his prediction and pick for the Chargers vs. Jets game.
Matt MacKay - November 3, 2023, 10:24 AM EDT
7 minLos Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Justin Herbert Give Chargers a Spark?
One of the more intriguing matchups on the Week 9 slate is saved for last, as the 3-4 Los Angeles Chargers travel across the country to face the 4-3 New York Jets.
Yes, that's right, the Jets are above .500 with Zach Wilson under center. It's been a mixture of complimentary football on offense and a top-five defense that has contained opposing offenses with consistent success. Quinnen Williams and the rest of the Jets' defensive line are ranked first in pressure rate (29.2%), first in hurry rate (13.7%) and seventh in quarterback knock down rate (11.0%) this season.
Justin Herbert has had a lot of time to pick apart defenses behind a good Chargers offensive line, also relying on his mobility and size to extend plays outside of the pocket. He'll definitely be challenged on the road in prime time against a Jets defense allowing 129 total points, ranked fourth-fewest in the league, with 4.8 yards per play, tied third-lowest amongst all defensive units.
This is a stark contrast compared to Los Angeles' defense, which has allowed a scoring possession on 39.5 percent of opponent's drives, 11th-most in the league. The Jets sit at 31.4 percent, which is eighth-fewest. Getting Austin Ekeler back helps quite a bit, but even the Chargers' RB1 won't be enough to solely counter the relentless pressure and air-tight coverage deployed by the Jets.
Oddsmakers are giving the Jets +3.5 ATS, making them sizable home underdogs. The point total line is set at 40.5, with -115 odds on the under, which makes a lot of sense based on New York's defense. NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his latest prediction and pick between the Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets.
Chargers vs. Jets Date, Time, And Where To Watch
- Date: Monday, November 6, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ABC + ESPN
Chargers vs. Jets Odds
- Spread: Chargers -3.5 (-104), Jets +3.5 (-118)
- Total Odds: Under 40.5 (-115), Over 40.5 (-105)
- Moneyline Odds: Chargers (-176), Jets (+148)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets Injury Report
Chargers
Probable: TE Gerald Everett (Quadricep)
Questionable: LB Eric Kendricks (Ribs), WR Josh Palmer (Knee)
Out: WR Mike Williams (Knee), S Raheem Layne (Knee), S J.T. Woods (Illness), C Corey Linsley (Illness)
Jets
Questionable: OT Duane Brown (Shoulder), C Joe Tippmann (Quadricep), WR Randall Cobb (Shoulder)
Out: DL Al Woods (Achilles), OL Wes Schweitzer (Calf), C Connor McGovern (Knee), G Alijah Vera-Tucker (Achilles), QB Aaron Rodgers (Achilles), RB Israel Abanikanda (Thigh)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets Prediction
The Chargers have won four consecutive head-to-head matchups against the Jets dating back to 2012. However, Los Angeles has looked pedestrian against good defenses this season, scoring 17 points against other top-tier units like Kansas City and Dallas.
Zach Wilson has been playing better, but he's bailed out by second-year running back Breece Hall, who has emerged as the motor that powers the Jets' offense. The Jets haven't thrown for over 200 yards since Week 4, which was in fact the only time Wilson eclipsed 200 yards this season. The rushing attack is crucial, but its' been bottled up by the Eagles and Giants in each of New York's last two games played, leading to tight wins at the very end of the game.
The Chargers' run defense is good in terms of yards per attempt (3.8) but they bleed touchdowns, surrendering eight rushing touchdowns this season, which is the sixth-most in the league. However, their pass defense is even worse and injuries should keep it vulnerable against Wilson on Monday Night Football. The Chargers have allowed 7.2 net yards per pass attempt, which is the most in the league, resulting in 12 receiving touchdowns and over 2,000 passing yards.
Asking the Chargers to cover -3.5 ATS is a lot, especially since the key number of three is in play for the Jets. Losing by a field goal is highly likely considering the strength of New York's defense, combined with the big chunk plays the Chargers' defense has been susceptible to this season. Oddsmakers appear to have overvalued the Chargers after a 30-13 win at home over the Bears, which shouldn't move the needle this much.
The injury to Mike Williams has made the Chargers' passing attack a bit more predictable and less deep, while its rushing attack has been struggling, recording under 60 rushing yards in two of its past three games, including in a plus-matchup against Chicago with Ekeler in the backfield. While it's tempting to consider the under in this game since we're dealing with the Jets' defense, oddsmakers have the point total line already down to 40.5, which is dangerous territory for betting unders, as we could wind up with a 21-20 or 24-17 outcome.
Let's stake two units on the Jets to cover +3.5 at home against a Chargers' offense that is one-dimensional, playing without support from its defense, which is a liability against the run, setting up a monster night for Hall out of the backfield.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets Pick
- Pick: New York Jets +3.5 (-118) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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NFL Odds
