Washington Commanders vs New England Patriots Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can the Patriots Right the Ship?
Washington Commanders vs New England Patriots Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can the Patriots Right the Ship?
We've got a matchup of sub-.500 NFL teams in an interconference matchup between the Washington Commanders and New England Patriots in Week 9.
Somehow, some way, the Commanders have more wins than New England. Sam Howell and the Washington offense just logged 388 passing yards and four touchdowns in a 38-31 losing effort against the Eagles in Week 8. The lack of rushing attack has made the Commanders offense one-dimensional, and now, they've traded away edge rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Head coach Ron Rivera is increasingly looking incompetent, while Sam Howell has been sacked a league-high 41 times this season.
New England's 2-6 season has been tumultuous as well, but they've shown signs of improvement lately. Their biggest win of the year came in Week 7 against Buffalo, mounting a comeback late to beat Josh Allen and the Bills 29-25 at home in Foxboro. Now, the Patriots return home in preparation for a matchup that they should dominate along the line of scrimmage. With their next three games against the Commanders, Colts, and Giants, there's still plenty of time to right the ship in New England.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his latest prediction and pick for this early afternoon matchup between the Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots.
Commanders vs. Patriots Date, Time, And Where To Watch
- Date: Sunday, November 5, 2023
- Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Commanders vs. Patriots Odds
- Spread: Commanders +3 (-110), Patriots -3 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 41 (-110), Over 41 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Commanders (+138), Patriots (-164)
Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots Injury Report
Commanders
Probable: TE Logan Thomas (Heel)
Questionable: C Ricky Stromberg (Knee), CB Christian Holmes (Hamstring), WR Curtis Samuel (Toe), S Percy Butler (Calf)
Out: G Saahdiq Charles (Calf), LB Cody Barton (Ankle), S Jeremy Reaves (Knee)
Patriots
Questionable: DL Davin Godchaux (Illness), DL Deatrich Wise Jr. (Shoulder), DB Jonathan Jones (Knee), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (Hamstring), DL Christian Barmore (Knee), TE Pharaoh Brown (Back), OL Trent Brown (Ankle), LB Josh Uche (Foot), WR Davante Parker (Concussion)
Out: WR Kendrick Bourne (Knee), OL Riley Reiff (Knee), WR Kayshon Boutte (Hamstring), LB Matt Judon (Bicep), CB Christian Gonzalez (Shoulder),
Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots Prediction
New England is dealing with a rash of injuries to both sides of the line of scrimmage, but it's also a defensive unit that ranks second-best in rushing yards allowed per attempt (3.3 yards) this season. The Commanders have shown the ability to move the football through the air with Sam Howell, which is New England's defensive weakness, so expect a heavy dose of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas.
Washington's defense has been nightmarishly bad. The Commanders are allowing 6.9 net yards per pass attempt, ranked third-most in the league, while also allowing the most receiving touchdowns (18) this season. This correlates with their inability to hold opponents from scoring on drives, allowing 46.1 percent of drives to end with a score, ranked second-most in the league behind only the Denver Broncos.
New England has not established its rushing attack yet, registering under 100 total rushing yards in all but one game this season. Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliot should be able to thrive a bit more against Washington on Sunday, as they allowed six consecutive opponents to log at least 104 rushing yards before ending this streak in Week 8 against Philadelphia. Turnovers have been the Achilles heel for the Patriots offense this season, recording nine turnovers in their last five games. The loss of wideout Kendrick Bourne also puts a damper on an offense already struggling to produce points consistently.
Trends identify the point total under as a good play in this matchup at under 41 total points. However, with two bad pass defenses and Washington's ability to move the ball through the air, this isn't the spot for us to make money. The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in five straight games after playing a divisional opponent, while the Patriots have won 18 of their last 19 home games in November.
The Patriots have won by at least three points in both of their wins this season, while Washington has lost all five of their games by three or more points as well. It's obviously risky with a volatile offense, but they should perform better against a defense missing two of its previous top edge rushers, so let's lay -3 with the Patriots at home in a plus-matchup.
Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots Pick
- Pick: Patriots -3 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.