Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Javonte Williams, Broncos Control Tempo on SNF?
The Denver Broncos will look to build on their recent momentum when they visit the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. Can Javonte Williams and the Broncos control the pace of play through the ground game and keep this low scoring? Matt MacKay breaks down this Monday Night Football clash with his Broncos vs. Bills prediction.
Matt MacKay - November 10, 2023, 10:40 AM EST
5 minDenver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Javonte Williams, Broncos Control Tempo on SNF?
The last game on the NFL Week 10 slate features the Buffalo Bills hosting the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.
It's been a tough season for both teams, for different reasons. Buffalo has been dominant in the past few years, but their overtime loss to Kansas City in the AFC Divisional Round in 2021 has been the peak of their success during this run. Josh Allen is making bad decisions, forcing balls into tight windows, and committing turnovers virtually every week. The Bills' run game is stale and their offense is back to being one-dimensional, while its defense is missing key components like linebacker Matt Milano. Perhaps the worst aspect of Buffalo's defense is their inability to force turnovers, only recording one turnover in its last four games played.
Denver had a nightmare start to 2023, going 0-3, losing one possession games at the end of their matchups against Las Vegas and Washington at home before getting blown out 70-20 against Miami. Then, the momentum began to change in the Broncos' favor. A 31-28 comeback on the road against Chicago sparked this fortuitous shift, but it was followed up with two more losses to the Jets and Chiefs. A low-scoring win over Green Bay at home gave the Broncos enough confidence to host Kansas City for the second time in a three-week stretch, resulting in a 24-9 outright win. This ended the Broncos' 16-game losing skid to the Chiefs, going into their Week 9 Bye with a lot of positive momentum to build on.
Now, Russell Wilson and first-year head coach Sean Payton will travel across the country for a prime time matchup against a reeling Buffalo Bills team. NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his latest prediction and pick for Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills.
Broncos vs. Bills Date, Time, And Where To Watch
- Date: Monday, November 13, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where To Watch: ABC/ESPN
Broncos vs. Bills Odds
- Spread: Broncos +7 (-105), Bills -7 (-115)
- Total Odds: Under 46.5 (-105), Over 46.5 (-115)
- Moneyline Odds: Broncos (+280), Bills (-350)
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Injury Report
Broncos
Questionable: N/A
Out: WR Brandon Johnson (Hamstring), TE Greg Dulcich (Hamstring), CB K'Waun Williams (Ankle)
Bills
Questionable: S Jordan Poyer (Shin), S Micah Hyde (Neck), DE Leonard Floyd (Illness), CB Christian Benford (Hamstring), QB Josh Allen (Shoulder), S Damar Hamlin (Illness), LB A.J. Klein (Back)
Out: CB Kaiir Elam (Ankle), TE Dawson Knox (Wrist), RB Damien Harris (Neck), DT DaQuan Jones (Pectoral), LB Matt Milano (Leg), CB Tre' White (Achilles), RB Nyheim Hines (Knee)
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction
The line opened at +7.5 Denver, but now, it's moved down to +7. The Broncos are 3-5 but could easily be 5-3 if not for some bad breaks and self-inflicted wounds during the first few weeks of the season. If both of these teams had five wins, we'd likely see this number at +3.5 or +4.5. Instead, we're getting the Broncos at +7, making them a touchdown underdog against a Bills team that hasn't covered the spread in five consecutive games.
The Broncos have settled into a rhythm offensively, funneling their plays through the backfield, led by Javonte Williams, who looks better each week. Denver has logged between 115 - 153 rushing yards in four consecutive games, while its passing attack has recorded at least one passing touchdown in every game this season. Wilson's numbers may be down across the board, but he's fresh off of throwing three touchdowns against Kansas City, which is undoubtedly a much better defense than Buffalo.
The Bills have given up over 260 passing yards in two of their past three games, including against Mac Jones and the Patriots, while the run defense has tightened up. If the Broncos want to win this game outright, Wilson will need to handle more passing volume to target Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy downfield. It helps when the Bills' secondary is as injured and depleted as its current state. Then, factor in Josh Allen's shoulder injury. He won't have a cake matchup against the Broncos.
Quietly, Denver's defense has stepped up its level of play, while getting healthier. The Broncos have given up under 212 passing yards in three of their past four games, while forcing nine turnovers during this stretch. We all know how interception-prone Allen has been in 2023, so expect more turnovers to hamper the Bills' offense on Monday night. Denver's ability to throw the football will determine the outcome of this game.
46.5 total points is a lot to ask for between these two teams. The under has cashed in each of Denver's last nine November games played, while the Broncos have played games with 46 or fewer points in three straight outings. Comparatively, the Bills have only gone over 46.5 total points once in their last five games. Let's take advantage of this mispriced line total and bet under 46.5 total points in this matchup between Denver and Buffalo on Monday Night Football.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Pick
- Pick: Under 46.5 (-105) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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