Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Same Game Parlay: Can Samaje Perine Step Up for Broncos on MNF?
The Denver Broncos are heading to Buffalo for a Monday Night Football battle. Can backup RB Samaje Perine excel as a pass catcher and rack up receiving yards on MNF? Ben Rajavuori breaks it down with his prop picks in the Broncos vs. Bills Same Game Parlay.
Ben Rajavuori - November 13, 2023, 4:58 PM EST
5 minDenver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Same Game Parlay: Can Samaje Perine Step Up for Broncos on MNF?
The Bills have lost two of their last three games to drop to 5-4 on the season. After being highly regarded as a top-level team in the AFC, the Bills are one loss away and dropping to .500, which would lower their playoff stock immensely. The AFC East is still wide open with the Dolphins sitting at 6-3, but the Bills need to win their easier home games to stay in contention, like their game tonight against the Broncos. They are 7.5-point favorites and should take care of business. I have a three-leg same-game parlay built around the hope we see a lot of defense tonight.
Broncos vs. Bills Date, Time, And Where To Watch
- Date: Monday, November 13, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where To Watch: ABC/ESPN
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Same Game Parlay
Leg One: Bills/Broncos Under 47.5
Monday Night Football is 10-1 to the under in 2023, and prime time unders alone have been hitting at 60% through 10 weeks, which is insane. Although it's not smart to bet solely off trends, a 10-1 trend in this scenario is something to think about.
The Broncos have found themselves on a sneaky two-game win streak to improve to 3-5 after beating the Chiefs and Packers. In the last two games, the Broncos have found success by prolonging possessions and keeping their defense off the field as much as possible, which has led to lower-scoring games. The Broncos have gone under in three straight games, and this game has a higher total than all three of those ones.
The Bills have gone under the total in four of their last five games, as their offense has been up and down. The hardest part for the Bills has been keeping the ball. They rank 23rd with 1.6 giveaways per game, and Josh Allen has nine picks on the season, which is tied for second-most behind Jordan Love and Mac Jones. The Bills are efficient in the red zone, but with their turnover issues and issues in the run game, they don't get there as often. Given that the Bronco's defense has shown improvements as the season progresses, I'll back Monday unders to be 11-1 after tonight.
Leg Two: Samaje Perine Over 13.5 Receiving Yards
Samaje Perine has played in all eight Denver games and has passed 13.5 receiving yards in every game, going 8-0 to the over. In a lot of those games he has had under 20, so it has come close, but he has still passed the number every week.
This total is as low as it is because the Broncos have a three-headed rushing attack, with starter Javonte Williams getting most of the carries, rookie Jaleel McLaughlin getting more action, and Samaje Perine splitting time with Jaleel behind Javonte. While Javonte gets most of the snaps, he is not as good of a receiving back as Perine.
Perine is the best receiving back on the Broncos and is fourth on the team with 231 receiving yards, which leads the running backs. He only has one more carry on the ground this season (27) than he has targets through the air (26). That speaks volumes about how Denver utilizes him, which makes this line make no sense. Perine is averaging 28.9 receiving yards per game, and while he will play fewer snaps than Williams when he is out there, he is getting targeted in the air. Look for Perine to move to 9-0 on hitting 14+ receiving yards this season.
Leg Three: Javonte Williams Under 16.5 Receiving Yards
While we're on the trend of the under on the total for the game, how about an under on a prop. If Perine is going to go over, I'll take my chances that means Williams goes under. Williams is the main running back for this team, there's no question about that. He got 27 carries last week in the win against the Chiefs. But he's not the primary receiving back, in fact, I'd argue he's closer to the third-string receiving back with McLaughlin in the mix.
McLaughlin and Perine combined for five targets last week to Williams' three. Williams usually tops out around there, and his targets are usually emergency check-downs rather than down-the-field targets. Therefore, he usually gets less yardage on his receptions. Williams has only four fewer targets than Perine, but he has 153 fewer yards, averaging just 4.6 yards per completion to Perine's 10.5. Williams has only passed 16.5 receiving yards in one game this season, and he got a 17-yard completion to do it. Given that Williams is fighting with Perine and McLaughlin for targets in the air, his being the highest line at 16.5 makes no sense. Sure, he plays a lot more snaps, but he is their attacker on the ground, not through the air. I'll back Williams to go under 16.5 receiving yards for the 7th time in his 8th full game.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Same Game Parlay (+500) (Bet $100 to Collect $600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Leg One: Bills/Broncos Under 47.5 @ -115
- Leg Two: Samaje Perine Over 13.5 Receiving Yards @ -115
- Leg Three: Javonte Williams Under 16.5 Receiving Yards @ -125
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