2023 NFL MVP Race: Jalen Hurts Extends Lead After Comeback Victory Over Bills
2023 NFL MVP Race: Jalen Hurts Extends Lead After Comeback Victory Over Bills
Week 12 in the NFL gave us plenty to watch during the long holiday weekend, including a head-to-head matchup between two MVP candidates, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. This game didn't disappoint, as Hurts and Allen accounted for nine total touchdowns, with Philadelphia winning 37-34 in thrilling fashion during overtime.
After falling into a 14-0 deficit, Patrick Mahomes rallied the Kansas City Chiefs to a 31-17 comeback on the road against the Raiders, finishing with 298 passing yards and two touchdowns. Mahomes is currently up in value from +460 a week ago after losing to the Eagles, sitting at +350 alone in second place behind Hurts, who has created a nice cushion in first-place at +150 odds.
Dak Prescott continued to showcase his arm in a favorable matchup against the Commanders in a dominant 45-10 win, throwing for over 330 yards and four touchdowns to climb from +1500 to +600 in the latest MVP odds. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens went on the road and won 20-10 against the Chargers, logging 177 passing yards and one touchdown to rookie wideout Zay Flowers in an otherwise ugly contest. This pedestrian effort from Jackson has moved his NFL MVP odds down from +420 to +600 to join Prescott, although on a downward trajectory.
The final two MVP candidates are also trending in opposite directions. Tua Tagovailoa threw two interceptions during a 34-13 road win over the Jets on Black Friday, dropping down from +500 to +800 due to logging just 243 yards and one touchdown. Brock Purdy, however, is back to being red hot on the field. The 49ers have won three consecutive games out of their Bye, distancing themselves from their three-game losing skid against the Browns, Vikings, and Bengals. Purdy's completed over 70 percent of his pass attempts in five straight games, recording seven touchdowns and one interception during this winning streak.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is here to provide his latest analysis on how to wager current 2023 NFL MVP odds as the regular season begins to heat up in the final few weeks.
2023 NFL MVP ODDS
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | +150 | 40% |
| Patrick Mahomes | +350 | 22.22% |
| Dak Prescott | +600 | 14.29% |
| Lamar Jackson | +600 | 14.29% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +800 | 11.11% |
| Brock Purdy | +1400 | 6.67% |
NFL MVP RACE INTO WEEK 13
JALEN HURTS (+150) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
Philadelphia's latest win over Buffalo was led by their franchise quarterback, Jalen Hurts, who logged five total touchdowns, including a walk-off 12-yard touchdown to win late in overtime. Now the Eagles are 10-1, with the next best record at 8-3, preparing to host the 49ers for an NFC Championship rematch in Week 13.
If Hurts wins as a home underdog against the recharged 49ers and fellow MVP candidate Brock Purdy, his number will flip into minus odds. However, a loss gives us more value to wager, likely in the +300 range. +150 is short but could quickly drop with another win against San Francisco. If Hurts lose, he gets another chance to improve his MVP stock during a Week 14 road trip to Dallas against another MVP candidate, Dak Prescott. Here, both strategies are ideal, but I'll lean toward buying +150 while it's still available in betting markets.
PATRICK MAHOMES (+350) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
Patrick Mahomes hasn't had a spectacular output compared to his MVP-winning 2022 season, but the Chiefs continue to win games on the back of their defense. We've seen Mahomes use his mobility more often this year, but he's also managed to log at least two touchdown passes in three straight contests.
He completed 79 percent of his attempts for 298 yards and two touchdowns against a good Raiders pass defense in Week 12, accomplishing this feat in a 14-0 deficit on the road against a divisional opponent. This is why Mahomes' odds shot up from +460 to +350. Next up is another road game against an improved Green Bay defense. Mahomes is still a must-bet due to the value we're getting at +350 odds, especially with a favorable rest of season schedule.
DAK PRESCOTT (+600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
After getting questioned following a horrible outing against San Francisco in prime time back in Week 5, Dak Prescott has silenced his critics by playing some of the best football of his career. Prescott has thrown for at least three touchdowns in four of his past five games, including on Thanksgiving Day against Washington's porous secondary. The biggest improvement is the lack of turnovers, recording only one interception across his last four games played. Prescott is distributing the ball effectively in an increasingly pass-centric offense, throwing over 300 yards in four of his past five contests.
Prescott and the high-flying Cowboys offense host Seattle on a short week in Week 13, before another marquee divisional matchup against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in Week 14. Prescott's odds already shortened from +1500 to +600 with his strong outing against Washington, so if he beats Philadelphia in two weeks, while going 2-0 in the next two games, Prescott could wind up an MVP favorite. Although it's cut in half from a week ago, bet +600 while it's still available before a plus-matchup against the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.
LAMAR JACKSON (+600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
Baltimore is winning games but Lamar Jackson's production hasn't been nearly as dazzling as some of the other MVP favorites through Week 12. Jackson's mobility remains a piece of his game, but he isn't scoring rushing touchdowns like he did earlier this season and during his 2019 NFL MVP campaign. Jackson completed 61 percent or fewer of his pass attempts in three straight games, throwing four touchdowns and two interceptions during this three-game stretch.
A Week 13 Bye gives Jackson and the Ravens time to rest before hosting the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14. Jackson could exploit a Rams run defense allowing 11 rushing touchdowns and 4.2 yards per attempt, but their pass defense is good, ranking 16th in net yards allowed per pass attempt, with the second-fewest passing touchdowns surrendered (11) across the league. Jackson's a hold at +600 for now entering the Bye, but he does face the Jaguars, 49ers, Dolphins, and Steelers to close out the regular season, providing some high-quality opponents to improve his MVP stock if the Ravens win those games.
TUA TAGOVAILOA (+800) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
Watching Tua Tagovailoa this season has been reminiscent of 2022, minus the injuries. Miami's QB1 has played well in spots, recording at least three touchdown passes in four of 11 games this season. However, Tagovailoa has begun to commit more turnovers lately, throwing one interception or more in four of his past five games, while fumbling in four straight outings.
Tagovailoa's rapport with Tyreek Hill keeps him elevated in the MVP odds race for now. Plus, he did draw a tough Jets pass defense on the road in Week 12 to skew his numbers a bit. The signature win for Miami is still missing from Tagovailoa's resumé though, but he'll get tested in the final three weeks of the regular season, facing Dallas, Baltimore, and Buffalo. Upcoming games against Washington, Tennessee, and the New York Jets will give Tagovailoa a chance to pad his stats and seize wins. +800 isn't bad value to acquire, especially if the Dolphins win down the stretch. Let's not invest too much here, but +800 is still a good number to lay on Tagovailoa's NFL MVP odds.
BROCK PURDY (+1400) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
The "Mr. Irrelevant" nick name is really the only reason we're getting such a long number with Brock Purdy. The 49ers quarterback has been electric this season, coming off of an elbow injury sustained against the Eagles early in the NFC Championship game last postseason. Purdy has played well even during games when San Francisco lost, but now, he's logged over a 70 percent completion rate in three straight games.
Purdy benefits from the personnel surrounding him but he's still showcasing his accuracy and decision-making abilities within Kyle Shanahan's West Coast offense. Now, with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams back in the lineup, Purdy has all of the 49ers' weapons at his disposal, plus a souped-up defense that recently added edge rusher Chase Young. San Francisco is favored to win on the road against Philadelphia in Week 13, which would propel Purdy's MVP odds from +1400 to +500 or greater, leaving us with minimal value. Invest accordingly right now on Purdy, who draws a favorable rest of season schedule after a rematch against the Eagles this week.
NFL Odds
Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.