Week 13 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 13 of the NFL Season?
Week 13 in the NFL awaits. Which games should you target this week? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season.
Matt MacKay - November 29, 2023, 10:32 AM EST
9 minWeek 13 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 13 of the NFL Season?
Week 13 in the NFL awaits, meaning we've got more picks to wager coming out of the long holiday weekend. Our Week 12 NFL picks went 2-2 during Week 12, improving from an 0-4 run in Week 11.
Houston was unable to cover +2 at home against Jacksonville, as the Texans' late 58-yard field goal attempt to force overtime doinked off the crossbar. That was the first bad beat of the slate. Then, we got bold, investing a unit on Philadelphia -5.5 ATS, despite being -3 ATS on the main betting line. As it turns out, the Eagles pushed as three-point favorites behind Jalen Hurts' five touchdowns, including a walk-off rushing touchdown late in overtime.
The other two NFL picks cashed, as Pittsburgh logged over 400 yards of offense in a 16-10 road win over Cincinnati. Kenny Pickett threw for a season-high 278 passing yards, despite not throwing a touchdown, while Najee Harris churned out nearly 100 rushing yards and the Steelers' lone touchdown against a porous Bengals run defense, resulting in the Steelers' -125 moneyline odds cashing. During the late afternoon window, Arizona was routed by the Los Angeles Rams 37-14, easily cashing over 44.5 total points at -110 odds behind Kyren Williams' two-touchdown outing in his first game back off of I.R.
Week 13 has some great matchups in store but six teams are on Bye, limiting the amount of action we can get at sportsbooks. NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share four of his best NFL picks to bet on during a Week 13 slate that includes an NFC Championship game rematch between Philadelphia and San Francisco, along with Dallas vs. Seattle on Thursday Night Football, Denver vs. Houston, and Kansas City vs. Green Bay on Sunday Night Football.
WEEK 13 NFL PICKS
DALLAS COWBOYS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Thursday Night Football kicks off with two teams above .500, as the Seattle Seahawks travel to face the red-hot Dallas Cowboys.
Dak Prescott has been putting on a passing clinic, scorching teams for three to four touchdowns in four of his past five games. In fact, Prescott has thrown for four touchdowns in each of his last three home games. Now, he'll face a Seattle defense that performs well against the pass, ranked 22nd in net yards per pass attempt (5.8) this season. The Seahawks have been stout against the pass, but much more vulnerable against opposing running backs, surrendering 169 total rushing yards or more in two of their past four games.
We may see Tony Pollard have his best game of the season, while Prescott's mobility has also been leveraged when necessary in plus-matchups. Seattle's offense, conversely, is trending downward with Geno Smith. The Seahawks have scored more than 16 points only once in their past four games, while failing to reach 300 total yards of offense two consecutive games against the Rams and 49ers.
Oddsmakers are giving the Seahawks +9 ATS on the road, but this doesn't feel like enough. Dallas brings their A-game at home, so in a prime time matchup against a sputtering offense, combined with a strong Cowboys offense and stout defense, let's invest a unit and lay -9 with Dallas on Thursday night. After all, the Cowboys are 8-3 ATS this season, while the Seahawks are 5-5-1 ATS.
ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Arizona's season is once again filled with low expectations, despite an improved quarterback under center with Kyler Murray back on the field. Pittsburgh's managed to reach a 7-4 record, vying for an AFC playoff berth playing complimentary football and establishing its rushing attack with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
The Cardinals' run defense is atrocious. Arizona has allowed more than 111 rushing yards in seven consecutive games, so expect a heavy dose of Harris and Warren to move the chains on Sunday. Kenny Pickett has logged pedestrian numbers this season, but he just recorded a season-high 278 passing yards against the Bengals in Week 12. Pickett hasn't thrown a touchdown across the last three games, but he's thrown a touchdown pass in four different home games.
Arizona's pass defense isn't much better lately, surrendering 229 - 308 passing yards in back-to-back contests against the Texans and Rams. Pickett and the Steelers' offense shouldn't have any issues, while the Cardinals' offense is run-centric and has to deal with T.J. Watt and the rest of Pittsburgh's defense disrupting at the line of scrimmage.
Eight of Pittsburgh's last nine games have gone under the point total line. Arizona has scored 16 or fewer points in every road game this season, including with Murray. Meanwhile, the Steelers' methodical, clock-chewing style of offense will easily cash under 41.5 total points, presenting a healthy investment to wager on Sunday's early afternoon slate.
DENVER BRONCOS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS
One of the bigger games in Week 13, as we all predicted during this past offseason, features Denver on the road against Houston.
The Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winning five consecutive games, mostly against teams with a winning record. Head coach Sean Payton has Russell Wilson methodically moving the ball with a blend of RPO and play action, allowing Wilson to use his mobility to extend plays with his arm and as a ball carrier.
Houston's also made remarkable strides under first-year head coach Demeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who is in the mix for NFL MVP despite being so young in his career. The Texans' pass rush is solid, but their pass defense has remained porous, allowing Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville to log between 250 and 364 passing yards in the past three games played.
Denver's defense has made the biggest improvements, holding opponents to 22 points or less during each of their victories on this five-game winning streak. The Broncos have forced at least three turnovers in four consecutive games as well, while their pass defense has tightened up, allowing less than 215 passing yards since their win streak began in Week 8.
We have to pounce on Denver's plus moneyline odds at +152. Houston's a good football team and Stroud will challenge the Broncos' secondary, but they are rolling on both sides of the line of scrimmage, while Houston has won all three of their games post-Bye in the last few minutes of each contest. Denver's built to travel, plus Wilson and Payton's experience in the league makes them a reliable asset to invest in on the road against Houston in Week 13.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The marquee matchup in Week 13 once again includes Philadelphia, who will host the San Francisco 49ers, giving us an NFC Championship game rematch at Lincoln Financial Field during Sunday's late afternoon slate.
Jalen Hurts' five total touchdowns against the Bills in Week 12, plus a road win over the Chiefs in Week 11, have moved him into the outright MVP betting favorite. The Eagles' offense is balanced and has weapons all throughout its personnel, ranging from A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, to D'Andre Swift and Hurts' mobility as a ball carrier. Plus, Philadelphia's offensive line is stalwart, going up against a revamped 49ers defensive line that now features Nick Bosa and Chase Young on the edge.
The 49ers have their own MVP candidate in Brock Purdy, who has been lighting opposing defenses up since coming out of a Week 9 Bye. San Francisco lost three straight games before the Bye, however, Purdy's been dynamic as a passer, benefitting from Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Of course, Christian McCaffery and George Kittle as safety valves are a bonus.
The 49ers suffered several key injuries during the NFC Championship game a year ago, allowing the Eagles to dominate en route to the Super Bowl. Expect the 49ers to be motivated and fully prepared early to execute an aggressive game plan against a porous Philadelphia secondary. Brandon Aiyuk, Kittle, and Samuel should all play massive roles to move the ball for the 49ers, as the Eagles' run defense is difficult to run on.
It's hard to pick a winner here, despite Philadelphia holding a league-best 10-1 record. However, we saw points scored in bunches against Buffalo, and now, the 49ers' potent offense will collide with the Eagles balanced attack. Over 46.5 is an easy pick to wager, as good offense tends to beat good defense. Each team has vulnerabilities on defense, mainly in the secondary, so expect plenty of touchdowns to cash this point total of over 46.5 at -115 odds.
WEEK 13 NFL PICKS
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks: Cowboys -9 (-105) (Bet $105 to collect $205)
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 41.5 (-112) (Bet $112 to collect $212)
- Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans: Broncos ML (+152) (Bet $100 to collect $252)
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Over 46.5 (-115) (Bet $115 to collect $215)
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