Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prop Pick: Will Joe Mixon Make Impact on Monday Night Football?
The Cincinnati Bengals will be fighting an uphill battle against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football. Will Joe Mixon see limited touches as a result of playing from behind? Krabs provides his top prop pick for MNF between Bengals and Jaguars.
Krabs - December 4, 2023, 4:13 PM EST
5 minCincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prop Pick: Will Joe Mixon Make Impact on Monday Night Football?
The Bengals versus the Jaguars might not seem like the most exciting game on paper, but it is the first Monday Night Football game in Jacksonville since 2011. There’s a lot of pressure on Trevor Lawrence and the Jags to perform well in primetime under the lights, and with the spread up to JAX -10, it seems like oddsmakers are expecting a blowout. Instead of betting a side or total, I’m targeting a particular player on MNF…
Bengals vs. Jaguars Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: December 4, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
I’ve been going back and forth on the spread all day, so instead of forcing a play on a side, I’ve got my eyes on a Joe Mixon prop. The Bengals’ star running back will have his hands full against the third best rush defense in the NFL in opponent rushing yards per game. This stout Jags defense held Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce to less than 33 rushing yards last week. The week before that, they held Derrick Henry to 3.5 YPC on only 10 attempts.
The Jaguars have been playing great football of late, winning and covering four of their last five games against solid opponents. They’ve gotten out to early leads and done a great job of holding onto them. I don’t see a world where the Jags don’t go up early in this contest against Jake Browning. If the Jags get out to an early lead, the Bengals are going to have to make a comeback through the air, not on the ground against one of the best rush defenses in the league.
Joe Mixon’s rushing attempts got bumped down from 14.5 to 13.5. This isn’t particularly surprising, considering the large spread and projected game-script. We’ve seen Mixon clear this number of attempts in 66.7% of his last nine games, making his projected attempts relatively low this week. I’m willing to bet it’s that low and getting bumped down for a reason…
Not only will Mixon struggle to find success against this underrated defensive line, but with the Bengals likely trailing for the majority of this game, he won’t have the opportunity to log his desired amount of carries. We’ve also seen his receiving yards prop get bumped up, along with a couple of the Bengals receivers. It’s clear that the Bengals game-script will unfortunately be filled with plenty of Browning pass attempts in an attempt to make a comeback.
We saw the Bengals give up on the run game early last week against the Steelers when they couldn’t find success. I don’t see tonight going any differently. Expect the Bengals to be crawling back into this game through the air with their elite receiving core, not Joe Mixon tonight. Fade his rushing attempts, and I’ll meet you at the cash counter.
Pick: Joe Mixon u13.5 Rush Attempts (-106) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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NFL Odds
