Week 14 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 14 of the NFL Season?
Week 14 in the NFL awaits. Which games should you target this week? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season.
Matt MacKay - December 6, 2023, 11:59 AM EST
7 minWeek 14 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 14 of the NFL Season?
We're back with the latest edition of NFL picks, this time, focusing on a Week 14 slate that will feature 30 teams in action. This gives us tons of betting market lines to sift through to identify winners to keep growing our bankroll.
Last week, six teams were on Bye in Week 13, giving oddsmakers fewer games to analyze when creating odds across various sportsbook betting markets. We still managed to go 2-2 with our four NFL picks, breaking even despite starting 0-1 due to Dallas only winning by six points, failing to cover as -9-point favorites ATS against Seattle. Denver had a chance to mount a late comeback in Houston but couldn't extend their five-game winning streak to six on the road, which also cost us the Broncos' moneyline at +152 odds.
Winners are a lot more exciting to recap. Granted, the under 41 total points cashed in Pittsburgh vs. Arizona, but it was the Cardinals who showed up and won 24-10 over a Steelers offense that regressed significantly from its 400-yard outing against Cincinnati in Week 12. The game of the week was included and cashed for us, although it wasn't competitive. San Francisco hung 42 points on the road against Philadelphia to win 42-19, easily cashing over 46.5 total points.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back to give us his four Week 14 NFL picks to wager ahead of another premium slate that features a Cowboys vs. Eagles rematch in prime time, Kansas City hosting Buffalo, and the red-hot Los Angeles Rams traveling to Baltimore. Best of luck if tailing, let's go 4-0 in Week 14!
WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
We're all depraved for betting on Thursday Night Football in Week 14 between the 7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers and 2-10 New England Patriots. However, there's value to obtain in this matchup, so it deserves to be analyzed.
New England managed to lose 6-0 at home against the Chargers in Week 13, relying on its defense to keep it competitive, but failing to cover against the spread as +5.5-point underdogs. Bailey Zappe has proven to be no better than Mac Jones, who is currently benched. Now, New England's top two skilled players, Demario Douglas and Rhamondre Stevenson, are trending towards not playing due to injuries. T.J. Watt and the rest of Pittsburgh's defense should make minced meat of the anemic New England offense, which is worse than Carolina's despite winning more games.
Every bettor will be on the point total under in this lackluster matchup, but oddsmakers have set it to 30.5 total points. This is too low to bite. Instead, let's key in on Mitch Trubisky, who has proven to be a solid backup quarterback for the Steelers when called upon. New England's defense is playing well, holding the Colts, Giants, and Chargers under 10 total points in three straight weeks. However, the Steelers have covered the spread after a loss in seven straight games, entering this matchup as six-point favorites at home.
It sounds unlikely, but winning wagers typically pan out this way. Let's invest a unit on the Steelers to cover -6 ATS at -110 odds, mainly due to New England's inability to score points. The Patriots are 2-10 ATS, while the Steelers are 7-5 ATS, failing to cover as home favorites against Arizona. Mike Tomlin won't let this happen again and will rely on an improved Steelers' pass defense to force turnovers and hold the Patriots' offense to seven or fewer points for the fourth consecutive game.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS
One of the more fun matchups getting overshadowed by other marquee games is Indianapolis vs. Cincinnati. The Colts have won four games in a row entering this road game against a Bengals team that just went into Jacksonville and won an overtime prime time game 34-31. This shows us that it's truly a week-to-week league.
The Bengals' defense has been bleeding points and yard to opponents all season, so Indianapolis shouldn't have any issues moving the football downfield with Gardner Minshew under center. Head coach Shane Steichen's offensive play-calling background is useful for this particular team, which is playing without star running back Jonathan Taylor but maintains a quality offensive line unit with nice perimeter weapons.
Cincinnati has allowed 248 or more passing yards in seven consecutive games, while the run defense has also been porous, allowing four of their past six opponents to go over 113 total rushing yards. The Colts are one of the best teams when it comes to cashing overs this season, going 8-4, while the Bengals are 6-6.
41.5 total points is way too low in this matchup, so we need to hammer over 41.5 total points with a couple of units staked on this line. The Colts are allowing 125 or more rushing yards in six consecutive contests and Joe Mixon just had a strong outing against a tougher Jacksonville run defense in Week 13, so there's plenty of incentive to wager over 41.5 total points in this AFC matchup.
BUFFALO BILLS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
While we've been waiting on Buffalo and Kansas City to rematch, their teams have cooled off from the championship-caliber rosters we watched play an epic AFC Divisional matchup in 2021.
Josh Allen and the Bills are well-rested coming out of their Week 13 Bye, while the Chiefs are back from a 27-19 road loss to Green Bay. Kansas City's defense has stepped up to help out a sputtering Chiefs offense, which funnels its passing attack through Travis Kelce and rookie wideout Rashee Rice. Isiah Pacheco is likely the biggest asset Kansas City has to rely on, especially facing Buffalo's porous run defense. Yet, the Bills have been tough to throw on, meaning we could see a low-scoring contest at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Both Kansas City and Buffalo have vulnerable run defenses right now, so expect Pacheco, James Cook, and Josh Allen to all have strong production. Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice may encounter more resistance through the air, leading to a lower scoring game than anticipated. Oddsmakers currently have the point total line set to 48.5.
The Bills just played their best game of the season, despite losing in overtime 37-34 to Philadelphia in Week 12. Allen doesn't fare well as an underdog following a loss, losing four games in a row ATS in this context, while Mahomes and the Chiefs have won 11 consecutive matchups after a loss. We're getting -142 moneyline odds on the Chiefs, which is safer than risking -114 odds at -2.5 ATS, but Kansas City is 7-5 ATS this season, with most losses coming on the road.
Let's stake a unit on Kansas City -2.5 ATS to win by a field goal or more to regain a foothold atop the AFC playoff seeding.
DALLAS COWBOYS VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
We get to wrap up Sunday's slate with a rematch between Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts, giving us a highly entertaining matchup on Sunday night in prime time.
We last saw Prescott play well on the road against the Eagles, but a few miscues kept the Cowboys from pulling off the divisional upset. Now, Dallas is playing with much more confidence, throwing for over 300 passing yards and three to four touchdowns in several of their recent wins. Philadelphia's pass defense is playing poorly right now, so expect Prescott, who is the current NFL MVP betting favorite, to put on a clinic at home in front of Cowboys fans.
Dallas has won 14 consecutive home games, while each of the past six matchups between the Cowboys and Eagles has gone over the point total line. Oddsmakers are currently giving the Eagles +3.5 ATS at -122 odds, while the point total line is set to 51.5, by far the highest on the Week 14 slate. The Eagles have failed to cover the spread as road underdogs against divisional opponents, and Hurts just beat Prescott for the first time head-to-head in Week 9.
A win over Philadelphia would give Dallas the divisional lead due to tiebreakers, positioning them for the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, depending on how San Francisco fares down the stretch. It's a big stage for two MVP candidate to showcase their talent, so expect a lot of production from both teams in this outing.
If the spread was -2.5 Dallas, I'd be willing to invest, as its through a key number. -3.5 makes this line suspect though, despite sitting at even odds. -178 moneyline is too much juice to lay with the Cowboys, which leaves us with the point total line. We've already seen movement down from 52.5 to 51.5, but each defense has weaknesses that the other offense can exploit. Based on the ideal, dry conditions indoors, plus playing on a fast artificial surface, combined with two explosive offenses, staking a couple of units on over 51.5 total points is the best bet to make in this NFC East battle.
WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots: Steelers -6 (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210)
- Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Over 41.5 (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210)
- Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs -2.5 (-114) (Bet $114 to collect $214)
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Over 51.5 (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210)
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