New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Same Game Parlay: Can Jaylen Warren Ball Out on TNF?
The Pittsburgh Steelers host the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. Can Jaylen Warren ball out on TNF? Ben Rajavuori shares his New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers same game parlay.
Ben Rajavuori - December 7, 2023, 4:30 PM EST
5 minNew England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Same Game Parlay: Can Jaylen Warren Ball Out on TNF?
The Pittsburgh Steelers host the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football on Prime Video tonight in our primetime early game this week. No, it's not a good game by any means, but damn it, we will bet it because the end of the regular season is sneaking up on us, and we have to get all we can out of it. This parlay is over at FanDuel with the best odds.. Let's get into it.
Patriots vs. Steelers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: December 7, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Where to Watch: Prime Video
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Same Game Parlay
Leg 1: Steelers -2.5 Alternate Spread
The Steelers enter this game with a 7-5 record, and despite having some of the worst offensive metrics in the NFL, they hold the first wild card spot if the playoffs started today. They are tied for second in the AFC North with the Cleveland Browns, who they hold the tiebreaker over.
The Patriots are 2-10, and at this point, it looks like they are purposely tanking for Caleb Williams after watching the game against the New York Giants two weeks ago. They are playing uninspired football, and they have benched Mac Wilson for Bailey Zappe. They are also down key pieces in their offense with the absence of Rhamondre Stevenson and Demario Douglas. DeVante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster are also both questionable. This offense is going nowhere, and as bad as the Steelers are on offense, the Steelers may finally have an edge on offense in this game, which is something they have not been able to say all year.
The Patriots defense is good, but that didn't matter last week, as the offense failed to score one point in a 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. They have failed to top seven points in three straight games. They are on an impressively bad offensive run, and the Steelers just have the better offense and are at home. If they can't win this game by 3+ points, that is truly just sad.
Leg 2: Jaylen Warren Anytime Touchdown
This leg is exactly why I recommend heading to FanDuel for this parlay. Not only is Jaylen Warren listed at one fewer receiving yard for just -110, but his touchdown odds are much higher at FanDuel. He is +165 to score over at DraftKings and +200 at FanDuel at the time of writing this.
Najee Harris is banged up with a knee injury, but he is "expected to play" tonight. Not a great look when you consider Jaylen Warren has already been gunning after the starting position out of the backfield. Jaylen Warren has one fewer touchdown on the season than Najee Harris (3), but he has scored a touchdown in three of his last six games now. He has 5.9 yards per carry compared to 4.2 yards per carry from Najee. Considering the injury to Najee and the increased usage of Warren, I like him to get in the end zone tonight at 2/1 odds.
Leg 3: Jaylen Warren Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
This is basically a Jaylen Warren parlay. It's not unwarranted, though. The kid is GOOD. He has a certain explosiveness that reminds me of Pacheco on the Chiefs, but he relies on lateral movement more than just putting his head down and crushing anyone in his path like Pacheco. He's certainly more explosive than Najee Harris from what we have seen so far.
It's his second season with the Steelers, and he has done very well with the increased usage he has seen this year. He has just 60 fewer rushing yards than Najee Harris, with 57 fewer carries. It's easy to see why the Steelers have been using him more, but I specifically like his receiving yards in this matchup against the Patriots tonight.
The Patriots' defense stops the run very well. In fact, they are first in yards per rush allowed at just 3.2 yards per carry. They are third in overall rushing yards allowed per game at 88.7. The Steelers may not have much success on the ground in this game, making Trubisky throw a bit more than they might want.
Warren has been a good receiving back, even though his passing usage has gone down in the last few games. He still is averaging 20.3 receiving yards per game, and I expect the Steelers to use him to get Trubisky some high completion percentage passing looks and get the passing game working with some screens and check downs. Warren should easily hit 20+ here.
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Same Game Parlay (+502) (Bet $100 to collect $602) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Leg 1: Steelers -2.5 Alternate Spread @ -215
- Leg 2: Jaylen Warren Anytime Touchdown @ +200
- Leg 3: Jaylen Warren Over 16.5 Receiving Yards @ -110
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