Week 18 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 18 of the NFL Season?
The final week of the 2023 NFL regular season is upon us. NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season. Don't miss out on these NFL picks.
Matt MacKay - January 4, 2024, 2:01 PM EST
10 minWeek 18 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 18 of the NFL Season?
The final week of the 2023 NFL regular season is upon us, which means this is our last fully packed slate until 2024. Yes, the NFL playoffs start with the Wild Card round next weekend, which will be spectacular, but we're going to be much more limited with the number of matchups to target and wager in various betting markets. Let's make the most of Week 18 and build our bankroll to go into the NFL playoffs with momentum.
In Week 17, our picks went 2-2, which is where we've been stuck at for a few editions of this article. We got hooked on the point total over in the Green Bay vs. Minnesota matchup, as the Vikings' woeful offensive performance kept us from cashing over 43.5 total points in a 33-10 rout by Green Bay. The other miss came on Saturday night when Dallas hosted Detroit, allowing the Lions to mount a potential game-winning drive that wound up falling short due to a series of botched two-point conversion attempts. Until the final drive, Dallas -4.5 looked obtainable.
Our hits were both on point total overs, taking over 37.5 in the Chicago vs. Atlanta matchup that saw the Bears rout the Falcons 37-17 at home. The other point total that cashed came in the Ravens vs. Dolphins matchup, as Baltimore throttled Miami 56-19, easily cashing over 46.5 total points to finish .500 with our Week 17 NFL picks. Overall, not a bad outcome, but certainly would've liked to go 3-1 or 4-0.
In Week 18, handicapping NFL games can be a bit more difficult than normal due to contract incentives, playoff berths clinched, and of course, injuries. We're up for the challenge though, especially with 14 games scheduled for Sunday, plus a de facto playoff game between AFC South opponents Houston and Indianapolis in prime time on Saturday night.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay returns with four more NFL picks to wager during Week 18. Let's start 2024 off with a winning week in the NFL and cash these tickets!
WEEK 18 NFL PICKS
HOUSTON TEXANS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Two teams with zero expectations in the offseason are now set to square off in a play-in game for an AFC Wild Card berth in Week 18. The Houston Texans will travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to play the Indianapolis Colts, as Texans' rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud will be featured in the first prime time game of his NFL career.
When these teams last met in Week 2, Indianapolis still had rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, who scored two rushing touchdowns early before exiting with a concussion. The Colts have since turned to Gardner Minshew under center due to Richardson's season-ending shoulder surgery, and with the return of Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis has managed to average 23.6 points per game, ranked 10th most in the NFL.
Houston isn't far behind, averaging 22.1 points per game, but Stroud was also absent for a couple of games recently due to being placed in the league's concussion protocol. The Texans' defense is the unsung hero, as Houston ranks second-best in yards per rush attempt (3.3) despite surrendering 18 rushing touchdowns. Opponents have been held under 20 points in three of their previous five games. The Colts may encounter trouble if Taylor cannot get going against the stout Houston run defense, forcing Minshew into obvious passing situations, where he's been largely inconsistent.
Houston is a -1.5-point favorite on the road, but Indianapolis hasn't lost a home game since Week 8 against New Orleans. Still, the Texans have won each of their last seven road games against divisional opponents, while the Colts have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games at home following a win at Lucas Oil Stadium. It's going to be a sweat, but let's stake a unit on Stroud and the Texans to pull out the win in Indianapolis on Saturday night to clinch an AFC Wild Card berth.
ATLANTA FALCONS VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Another matchup with massive playoff implications is set to go down in the NFC South when the New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon.
The last time these teams met, the Falcons pulled off the win in the fourth quarter, scoring 10 points in crunch time to pull away with a 24-15 win at home. The Saints look marginally better as of late, especially with their unexpected dominance against Tampa Bay on the road in Week 17, pulling off a 23-13 upset against the red-hot Buccaneers. New Orleans has quietly won three of its last four games, while the Falcons continue to play quarterback carousel between Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder.
Atlanta relies on establishing the run to be successful on offense, while its defense is their strength. Both of these run defenses are very talented, ranking atop the league in fewest rushing touchdowns allowed. The edge clearly goes to the Saints, who have seen wideout Chris Olave and quarterback Derek Carr develop rapport down the stretch.
The play in this game is to target the point total, specifically, the under. Oddsmakers are setting the current point total line to 42.5, with -118 odds on the under. Each of New Orleans' last 10 divisional games have gone under the point total line, plus, Atlanta's offense is far from efficient. The Saints have gone under 42.5 in three of their previous four games, while Atlanta has gone under this mark in four of their last six. Let's stake a unit on under 42.5 total points in what projects to be a slug fest, with the winner potentially taking the NFC South division crown, while also keeping their playoff hopes alive.
CHICAGO BEARS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS
Jordan Love's resurgent second half of the 2023 season has completely flipped the narrative on his arm talent, which was under scrutiny, paired with poor decision-making, in several of the Packers' early contests.
Now, we've seen Green Bay morph into a pass-centric offense, even with RB1 Aaron Jones healthy and back in the lineup. The wide receiving corps is young but filled with talent, notably, rookie wideout Jayden Reed, who has set records with Love, recording a two-touchdown outing against Minnesota on the road in Week 17.
Chicago has also been a pleasant surprise, winning four of their last five games, as Justin Fields has improved his chances of remaining QB1 entering 2024, or at the very least, going to another team in need of competent quarterback play. The Packers' defense has been their weakness, so this could be a tight game, but Chicago hasn't won against Green Bay in nine consecutive matchups.
Yes, this dominance will end at some point, but the Bears' weak pass defense is a dream matchup for Love, who previously lit them up in Week 1 on the road. Now, with the playoffs in front of them, expect the Packers' offense to continue humming, forcing the Bears to play catch-up. This takes us to the point total line, set to an even 45, with -110 in either direction. Let's wager a unit on over 45 total points, as Green Bay is 10-6 on the over this season, going over 45 total points in five of their last six games played.
BUFFALO BILLS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS
The final game on the Week 18 slate will be for the AFC East division crown, as Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday Night Football.
After struggling with their offensive play-calling mid-season, losing games against inferior opponents, firing former OC Ken Dorsey and shifting to new OC Joe Brady has reignited the Bills' run game. So much so, in fact, that players like Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid have fallen by the wayside, as the focal point of the offense lies in Allen and James Cook as ball carriers.
Buffalo's talent along both sides of the line of scrimmage is a slight edge over Miami's, as the Dolphins have lost multiple key components in their offensive and defensive line units due to injury. Miami likes to run the ball to set up downfield passes to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, so they could experience success against a Bills' run defense allowing 4.5 YPC and 13 rushing touchdowns this season.
We're jumping into the NFL player props market for this game though, targeting Josh Allen's anytime touchdown scorer odds at -125. Allen is two rushing touchdowns away from breaking Buffalos's single-season rushing touchdown record, and he's recorded at least one rushing touchdown in five consecutive games. He's only gone four games without a rushing touchdown this season, with two of these occurring in Week 1 and Week 2, so Allen is a multi-unit lock for returning to the end zone as a ball carrier against a depleted Miami defensive front in Week 18.
WEEK 18 NFL PICKS
- Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts: Texans Moneyline (-118) (Bet $118 to collect $218)
- Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints: Under 42.5 (-118) (Bet $118 to collect $218)
- Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers: Over 45 (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210)
- Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins: Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (-125) (Bet $125 to collect $225)
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