Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Prop Pick: Can C.J. Stroud Air It Out?
The 9-7 Houston Texans travel to face the 9-7 Colts for a playoff spot on Saturday. Can C.J. Stroud air it out? Ben Rajavuori answers.
Ben Rajavuori - January 6, 2024, 11:30 AM EST
7 minHouston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Prop Pick: Can C.J. Stroud Air It Out?
It's a classic "win-and-in" in Indianapolis tomorrow night, as the 9-7 Houston Texans travel to face the 9-7 Colts for a playoff spot. Gardner Minshew has done all he can this year and has served as a serviceable backup behind the injured Anthony Richardson, bringing the Colts to the verge of a playoff berth. Meanwhile, CJ Stroud has looked like the most impressive rookie in the league this year and has the Texans on the brink of their own playoff berth. What should we expect in this one?
Texans vs. Colts Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: January 6, 2024
- Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ABC & ESPN
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction
The second overall pick in the 2023 draft, C.J. Stroud, has proved this season that maybe he should have been the No. 1 overall pick. The rookie out of Ohio State has 3,844 passing yards (ninth), 21 passing touchdowns (13th), and just five interceptions on the season. His yards should also be higher, considering he missed a few games due to injury and has only played 14 games this season.
Stroud's passing yards line for this game is 257.5, which feels way too low. The Texans have not been a run-heavy team this year, ranking 23rd in rush-play percentage. Instead, the reigns have been handed off to Stroud pretty heavily in each game, as he continues to pass test after test. He is averaging 8.1 yards per pass, which is top ten in the league, and he is averaging 274.5 passing yards per game.
I suspect the line is a bit lower because of the magnitude of the game, and the fact that Tank Dell is hurt. Tank Dell being on the IR does suck, but Nico Collins is healthy, and Robert Woods is expected to play. In the first meeting of the season, Nico Collins had 146 receiving yards against this Colts defense with Tank Dell playing. Collins being healthy as the WR1 for this game is huge, and Stroud should hit him on a few bombs.
In the first meeting of the year, Stroud finished 30-47 with 384 passing yards in the loss to the Colts. 47 passing attempts is his season high, and part of that has to do with the Colts playing so much zone defense, and Stroud has a higher passer rating against zone than man coverage. I don't think he'll have 47 passing attempts again, but this game is expected to be back-and-forth with the Texans and Colts going drive-for-drive, which is why the spread is basically a pick 'em. The ball will be in Stroud's hands and he will be delivering like he has all season. This line is too low, and it keeps rising, so hop on quickly.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop
Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 257.5 Passing Yards -110 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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