Chiefs vs Bills Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Josh Allen Pick Up First Playoff Win Over Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs?
The Chiefs vs. Bills AFC Divisional Playoff game should be a good one. Can Josh Allen pick up his first playoff win over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Jason Radowitz breaks down this highly anticipated game.
Jason Radowitz - January 17, 2024, 9:32 AM EST
5 minChiefs vs Bills Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Josh Allen Pick Up First Playoff Win Over Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs?
It's not really a rivalry until both teams win. However, the Chiefs-Bills playoff matchup should be a good one.
Analysts and fans are quick to note that Josh Allen is 0-2 against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the playoffs. However, this time, the Bills are the home team.
Even earlier this season, the Bills knocked off the Chiefs 20-17 in a thriller in mid-December.
Beyond that, the NFL changed overtime rules because of a situation where the Bills didn't get an opportunity to win against the Chiefs in a playoff game.
We've seen Bills receiver Stefon Diggs stick around to watch Kansas City's AFC Championship celebration before. He took notes and knows precisely what's at stake in this week's AFC Divisional Playoffs matchup.
Can the Bills finally get the job done against Kansas City?
Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Sunday's game between the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills.
Chiefs vs. Bills Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: January 21, 2024
- Game Time: 6:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
Chiefs vs. Bills Odds
- Spread: Chiefs +2.5 (-110), Bills -2.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: O/U 46 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Chiefs (+125), Bills (-150)
Chiefs vs. Bills Injury Report
Chiefs
Questionable: WR Kadarius Toney (Hip), WR Justyn Ross (Hamstring), OT Wanya Morris (Concussion), LB Cam Jones (Chest), DT Derrick Nnadi (Elbow)
Out: RB Jerrick McKinnon (Groin), WR Skyy Moore (Knee)
Bills
Questionable: WR Gabe Davis (Knee), S Taylor Rapp (Calf), LB Terrel Bernard (Ankle)
Out: DT Jordan Phillips (Wrist)
Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction
Typically, the Chiefs have the Bills' number.
But this game has a different feel.
The Chiefs aren't even close to the best offense in the NFL this year. They've added 22.06 points per game, while the Bills have scored 26.53 points.
However, the Chiefs have played splendid defense, holding opponents to 16.72 points per game. The Bills have allowed 18.29 points per game.
Things have flipped a bit. The Chiefs have the better defense, but the Bills have the better offense. But which side is more reliable in a playoff game?
To me, it's the Bills.
Buffalo has earned nearly the same amount of passing yards as the Chiefs. However, Buffalo has averaged 130.12 yards rushing per game. With the Chiefs allowing 111.17 yards per game on the ground, the Bills should have success rushing the football.
You'd think Josh Allen was leading the team in rushing. However, James Cook has added over 1,100 yards on the ground with 237 carries. His stock has soared since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator.
Allen finished the season with 524 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns on the ground. He averaged 4.7 yards a carry. However, in Buffalo's win over the Steelers, Allen averaged 9.3 yards a carry on eight carries, earning 74 yards. He also threw the ball for 203 yards and completed 70% of his passes without throwing an interception.
Allen had one of the best seasons in the NFL as a quarterback. He threw for 4,306 yards and 29 touchdowns. His QBR was even in the top three. But he also threw 18 interceptions, which is a terrible rate, especially when playing in 17 games. That means he averaged about one interception per game.
However, he minimized the mistakes under the bright lights and will need to go that again against the Chiefs.
He had one interception against Kansas City in an earlier game against the Chiefs, but in that game, he still helped the Bills secure a win after completing only 54.8% of his passes.
On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs didn't play all that well either offensively. Mahomes threw for 271 yards but had a QBR of 29.4 with one touchdown and an interception.
This game will be close throughout. But this time, it'll be the defenses doing the talking. Take the Under.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Pick
- Under 46 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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