Patrick Mahomes Prop Picks: Don't Miss these Super Bowl LVIII Mahomes Prop Bets
The Kansas City Chiefs will look to establish a dynasty with another Super Bowl win on Sunday night. What can we expect from superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the Big Game? Let's take a look at the prop offerings for Patrick Mahomes as OddsChecker NFL analyst Peter Alexis provides his best prop picks for Mahomes in Super Bowl LVIII.
Peter Alexis - February 10, 2024, 12:00 PM EST
5 minPatrick Mahomes Prop Picks: Don't Miss these Super Bowl LVIII Mahomes Prop Bets
The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years, and it wouldn't have been possible without their star quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is going for his third ring on Sunday night when the Chiefs square off with the San Francisco 49ers.
Mahomes struggled earlier in the season as he tried to build new connections with a disjointed wide receiver group. They are finally hitting everything in stride, and the Chiefs are looking to ride the momentum to another championship.
With everything on the line, how well will Patrick Mahomes be able to carry his team against a talented San Fran defense? Let's take a look at his prop offerings and lines and locate the best prop picks for Mahomes in Super Bowl LVIII.
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49ERS VS. CHIEFS DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: February 11, 2024
- Game Time: 6:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
Super Bowl LVIII Prop Pick
Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Rush Attempts (-115) (Bet $115 to Collect $215)
Patrick Mahomes is one of the most deceptively athletic players in the NFL. He is not the fastest player around, but he avoids sacks with the slightest movements and is able to escape the pocket when he has to. Mahomes' rush attempts almost always increases in the playoffs, and this year is no exception. He has ran 14 times in the 2024 NFL Playoffs, with six attempts in each of the last two games.
In a game as big as the Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes will be using his legs to pick up critical first downs. Especially if the Chiefs are losing, they will need him to extend plays on long drives and scramble for yards. If we factor in historical performance, Mahomes ran six times in last year's Super Bowl, and nine times in the first Super Bowl against the Niners. He also ran five times in the blowout loss to the Buccaneers in 2021. All of those games featured the Chiefs losing, and two times they came back to win in the second half. If this contest follows a similar script, there's no reason to change the formula. It has hit in every Super Bowl, and we are going to rock with it once again.
Patrick Mahomes No Interception (-110) (Bet $110 to Collect $210)
Similar to his increased rushing attempts, Patrick Mahomes' play elevates across the board in the playoffs. In the 2024 playoffs, he's barely been sacked, and hasn't thrown a single interception. After a tumultuous regular season, Chiefs fans are thrilled to see him back in his superstar form, and that will only continue to trend upward in the Super Bowl.
Mahomes has the most interceptions of his career this year at 14, but this was largely due to the turnover in the wide receiver corps and them not being on the same page. A handful of those picks were anticipation throws where the receiver did not run to the spot he expected, resulting in an ugly INT and several returns for touchdowns. This unit is finally clicking throughout the playoffs, and as a result, he hasn't thrown an interception throughout. We get this line at much closer to even than past years, largely because of the issues earlier in the season. Mahomes has established a strong connection with Rashee Rice, and will avoid throwing it to players like Kadarius Toney that he hasn't linked up well with, a player who is responsible for several of those interceptions on dropped passed through his hands. Let's take the great value on him to avoid an INT in Super Bowl LVIII at basically even odds.
Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion Over 36.5 Yards (-110) (Bet $110 to Collect $210)
The Niners have started every game in a deep hole, down double digits in both playoff games. We expect that script to flip in the Super Bowl, with San Fran getting out to an early lead. You might be wondering why this matter for Patrick Mahomes' prop here. If the Chiefs are forced into a negative game script on Sunday night, they'll be spending most of the second half trying to claw back with the passing game.
Mahomes will look to hook up with Marquez Valdez-Scantling as the deep threat whether they are winning or losing, as Andy Reid is known for taking shots at the right time. The Chiefs were losing for the vast majority of Super Bowl LIV in 2020 to the Niners in the same way, before staging a fourth quarter comeback and changing the game with some big plays. Mahomes had long completions of 44 yards and 38 yards in that one, both good enough to smash over this total. Look for him to get another deep shot this year as KC tries to steal the momentum back.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS SUPER BOWL LVIII Prop Pick
- Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Rush Attempts (-115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Patrick Mahomes No Interception (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion Over 36.5 Yards (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Think you know what is going to happen at the Big Game on February 11th? Make your picks below for your chance to win a $100k if you get a perfect score!
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