NFL 2025 Season Passing Props: Best Bets for Yards, Touchdowns & Leader Odds
From Kyler Murray’s yardage value to Bo Nix’s touchdown upside, Tera Roberts break down the top NFL passing props to bet for the 2025 season. Plus, buy or sell picks for Burrow, Goff, and Mahomes to lead the league in passing yards.
Tera Roberts - June 25, 2025, 6:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadNFL 2025 Season Passing Props: Best Bets for Yards, Touchdowns & Leader Odds
We’re in a nice little gap between minicamp, OTAs and training camp, and now is the perfect time to dive into season-long NFL props. Let’s dive into passing yards, passing touchdowns and regular season passing leader props.
Spoiler Alert - The lines are very “over” friendly right now.
Get your first month of oddschecker+ right now for just $0.99. Don't miss out on this NFL offseason deal!
Passing Yards
Kyler Murray OVER 3400.5, -110
Murray’s line for passing yards is clearly hedging on a potential injury. If Murray plays 15 games, he’ll absolutely hit this mark. Our level of confidence on the over is purely based on Murray’s health. 2024 was the first year Murray played a full season, but concerns over his durability are a bit overrated.
Murray tore his ACL towards the end of the 2022 season and played just 11 games. Because the injury occurred so late, he missed the majority of 2023 and played the final eight games of the season. The ACL essentially took portions of both season. Aside from that injury, Murray has played a minimum of 14 games in all other seasons. Murray should also benefit from continued growth and better utilization from Marvin Harrison Jr. Trust Murray in 2025.
Bryce Young OVER 3150.5, -120
I’m a true believer in the combination of Dave Canalas, Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan. Young showed excellent progress after his untimely benching and averaged around 210 yards per game weeks 8 through 18. It’s not mind-blowing, but it was a vast improvement and impressive given the lack of a true WR1. The addition of McMillan and the Panthers’ very favorable 2025 strength of schedule place Young in perfect position to hit the over on his yardage.
Passing Touchdowns
Geno Smith OVER 20.5, +100
Smith has teetered around this line over the past couple of seasons with Seattle and the Raiders threw a total of 19 touchdowns last year, so the line is very appropriate. Smith’s transition to Las Vegas could actually result in an uptick in production. On the surface, it seems counterintuitive. Seattle had three strong receivers while the Raiders lack a true WR1. However, the big difference here is the upgrade in offensive line. Vegas’ offensive line isn’t incredible, but Seattle had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last year and Smith suffered as a result.
Vegas’s receiving corps may not have the ceiling of the Seattle group. However, they’re a young, capable group and Jeanty’s presence increases opportunities as well. Behind a more competent line and with an underrated group of weapons, Smith can hit the over here.
Bo Nix OVER 24.5, +100
The odds here aren’t surprising considering Nix is everyone’s favorite “CJ Stroud Regression” candidate, and 24.5 is a lofty line. However, Nix is in the perfect position to match his 2024 numbers - sixth-most passing touchdowns with 29. That number is more jarring when you consider the fact that he didn’t even throw a touchdown until Week 4.
Even if you remove that Week 18 four-touchdown game against Kansas City’s backups, Nix touchdown rate in Weeks 10 through 17 was 2.4 per game, a blistering 17-game pace of 41 touchdowns. Am I saying Nix is going to lead the league in touchdowns? No. Denver invested in the run game and will be more productive on the ground. However, the over on 24.5 touchdowns is very realistic. Courtland Sutton is a very reliable WR1, RJ Harvey provides opportunities for receiving touchdowns via running backs and Nix will benefit from the addition of Evan Engram as well.
Bryce Young OVER 17.5, - 110
We discussed the over on Young’s passing yards, and taking the over on Young’s touchdowns is just the continued natural progression of his development. However, the key to the touchdowns can be specifically attributed to McMillan. A 6’4”, contested-catch guy with reliable hands is the perfect addition to accelerate Young’s touchdowns. McMillan should serve as the primary redzone target for Young, who had 15 passing touchdowns, all of which came from Week 8 through the end of the season - a pace of 1.5 per game.
BUY or SELL: Most Regular Season Passing Yards
Joe Burrow +500
Burrow is the defending champ in regular season passing yards. The last time the NFL saw a back-to-back passing yard leaders was Drew Brees in 2016. However, if there’s one quarterback poised for a repeat, it’s Burrow. Burrow’s aggressive production is undoubtedly tied to Cincinnati’s dreadful defense. Even if the Bengals manage to solve all their defensive contract disputes, this will still be a work in progress. If Burrow stays healthy, he’ll repeat.
Verdict: BUY
Dak Prescott + 850
You might be surprised to see Prescott has the second-highest odds here, but it makes sense. Prescott has never led the league in pass yards, but he hit 4,900 yards back in 2019 and has the capability if all the stars align. The Cowboys' quest for WR2 stability could finally be over with the addition of George Pickens. Pickens and CeeDee Lamb should play beautifully off each other and be one of the league’s more talented duos. The run game is a big question mark and the Cowboys could tilt more pass-heavy. However, Prescott is coming off an injury, and I’m not convinced this is the right coaching staff to truly push Prescott to his highest potential. Brian Schottenheimer will carry over Mike McCarthy’s offense, mixed with his own flavor. While it sounds intriguing, I need to see it in action before I truly buy into a league-leading level of production.
Verdict: SELL
Patrick Mahomes +950
The last time we saw Mahomes throw for a league-leading level of passing yards was 2022, not so coincidentally, the last year Kansas City had an average defense, allowing the 17th most points in the NFL. In 2023, the Chiefs’ defense made a dramatic leap, allowing the second-fewest points in the league and fourth-fewest in 2024. As a result, Mahomes simply hasn’t had to push aggressive volume. Kansas City’s defense remains on track to maintain dominance. While I do think the Chiefs will push higher pass volume with the combination of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy at receiver, they likely won’t push those 2022 numbers.
Verdict: SELL
Jared Goff +1100
Goff is in a prime position to outpace the league. Goff passed for 4,629 yards last season, second only to Burrow, and has increased his yardage year-over-year since joining the Lions. His efficiency has been fantastic, so there’s clear room for a higher ceiling. Ben Johnson’s exit makes this a little more volatile. However, the change could benefit Goff. New offensive coordinator John Morton plans to increase Goff’s control over the offense, a move that could potentially increase pass volume. Goff has been incredibly efficient, boasting the highest passing success rate in the league last year and the second-highest completion rating.
Verdict: BUY
More NFL Odds
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
