Bears vs. Raiders Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Week 4
The Chicago Bears are hoping to keep the momentum rolling when they head west to Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. After taking down the Cowboys, can Caleb Williams and the Bears find another win over the Raiders in this close matchup of mediocre teams? Let's take a look at our Bears vs. Raiders prediction and best betting pick for Week 4.
OC Staff - September 28, 2025, 9:40 AM EDT
6 Minute ReadBears vs. Raiders Prediction: Can Caleb Williams, Bears Carry Momentum to Las Vegas?
The Chicago Bears finally broke through last week, picking up their first win of the season in dominant fashion. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams lit up the Cowboys’ defense with a barrage of deep throws, giving new head coach Ben Johnson his first victory at the helm. Chicago’s offense looked explosive for the first time all year, and fans are hoping it marks the beginning of a new era of consistency for a team desperate to escape the NFC basement.
They’ll try to keep that momentum going on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders, who have stumbled since their Week 1 win. Pete Carroll’s squad has dropped two straight, including an ugly blowout loss to Washington and backup quarterback Marcus Mariota last week. At 1-2, Las Vegas is facing an early crossroads: either stabilize at home or risk spiraling further down the AFC standings.
With the spread nearly a pick’em (Raiders -1.5), this matchup feels like a true toss-up between two middling squads. The Raiders will lean on their veteran defense and home-field advantage to avoid a third straight loss, while Williams looks to prove last week’s outburst wasn’t just a flash in the pan. If Chicago’s downfield attack keeps humming, the Bears could walk away with a second straight win — and suddenly look like a team on the rise instead of a rebuilding project.
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Bears vs. Raiders Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
- Time: 4:25 PM ET
- How to Watch: CBS
Bears vs. Raiders Odds
Our AI model pinpoints a compelling opportunity on the Under 48.0 Total Points for the Bears vs. Raiders clash. We project this game finishing below the market line with a strong 58.1% probability, a marked departure from the market's 52.4% implied likelihood. This significant 5.7% probability edge results in an impressive 10.9% positive expected value, rooted in our model's raw forecast of only 45.8 total points.
This analytical advantage stems largely from the Las Vegas Raiders' profound offensive struggles, ranking 26th in points scored, 24th in passing, and an abysmal 30th in rushing yards, severely limiting their scoring potential. Despite both the Bears' (28th) and Raiders' (21st) defenses being statistically poor in points allowed, the sheer inefficiency of the Raiders' offense is expected to prevent this contest from reaching an inflated 48-point total, ensuring a lower-scoring affair.
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Bears vs. Raiders Prediction
The most pivotal battle will undoubtedly be Caleb Williams, the dual-threat phenom, against the porous Las Vegas Raiders Defense. Williams arrives with impressive historical splits, demonstrating a 94.6 Passer Rating, 237.2 Passing Yards per Game, and a strong 3.2 TD:INT ratio over nine games against top-10 pass defenses. This suggests a composure and ability to perform under pressure that will serve him well against a Raiders pass defense ranked 27th in QB Rating Allowed.
But Williams isn't just an arm; his dual-threat capability, averaging 29.0 rushing yards per game (projected for 25.3), will be a constant threat to a Raiders run defense ranked 21st in Rush Yards/Carry. This forces the Raiders to defend the entire field, vertically and horizontally, opening up opportunities for both his arm and his legs. Our model’s finding of a 3.3% positive EV on Caleb Williams to exceed 227.5 passing yards underscores the statistical advantage he enjoys in this matchup.
On the other side of the ball, Geno Smith faces a prime opportunity for redemption against the Chicago Bears Defense. Smith's historical splits against top-10 pass defenses paint a concerning picture: a mere 81.7 Passer Rating, 204.2 Passing Yards per Game, and an inverted 0.9 TD:INT ratio over five games. However, he won't be facing an elite unit this week.
The Bears' pass defense ranks 28th in QB Rating Allowed and their pass rush is equally dismal at 26th in sacks. This represents a stark contrast to the elite defenses Geno has struggled against, offering him a chance to find rhythm and exploit the league's weaker secondaries. While our model doesn't find significant positive EV for his passing yards prop, the sheer drop-off in defensive quality from historical tough matchups to this week's opponent should still create a more favorable environment for Geno to operate.
Finally, the stage is set for a key skill-player mismatch with DJ Moore lining up against the struggling Las Vegas Raiders Pass Defense. Moore, projected for 4.8 receptions and 49.1 receiving yards, stands to benefit immensely from the Raiders' generous pass defense, which ranks 27th in the league. Moore's combination of route-running and big-play ability could be devastating against a secondary prone to giving up yards. This specific individual battle is so favorable that our model identifies an exceptional 11.0% positive EV on DJ Moore to exceed 45.5 receiving yards, signaling a strong data-backed expectation for a productive outing.
Ultimately, while Geno Smith has an opportunity to revive his form against a struggling Bears pass defense, the most decisive factor in this contest will be Caleb Williams' ability to relentlessly attack the Raiders' porous defense with both his arm and his legs. His dual-threat dynamism against a below-average Raiders unit fundamentally shifts how Las Vegas must approach its defensive strategy, creating a high-probability path for the Bears' offense to dictate the game's tempo and outcome.
Bears vs. Raiders Pick
- Pick: Under 48.5 (-110) Click here to get these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
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