Falcons vs. Packers Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Thursday Night Football
The Atlanta Falcons travel to Lambeau Field for Thursday Night Football looking to avoid an 0-3 start as Michael Penix Jr. makes his 2026 debut against the Green Bay Packers. Can Penix reignite an Atlanta offense built around Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts against an injury-hit Green Bay roster? Check out this Falcons vs. Packers prediction and best bet for Thursday, September 24.
Peter Alexis - September 24, 2026, 6:20 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadFalcons vs. Packers Prediction: Can Michael Penix Jr. Save Falcons on Thursday Night Football?
The Falcons head to Lambeau Field for an 8:15 PM ET kickoff against the Packers on Prime Video. Green Bay is a 5.5-point home favorite with the total set at 43.5, but the spread has undergone a major adjustment since Atlanta announced Penix would return as its starting quarterback.
Atlanta desperately needs the change after scoring only 16 points across its first two games, while Green Bay returns home at 1-1 after escaping the Jets 20-17 in overtime. Penix immediately raises the ceiling of an offense featuring Robinson, London and Pitts, while the Packers enter the short week with significant injuries along the offensive line and at receiver.
Falcons vs. Packers Recent Results
Atlanta Falcons (0-2, 0-1 NFC South)
Atlanta followed a 20-13 loss at Pittsburgh with an ugly 34-3 home defeat against Carolina. Cooper Rush completed just 22 of 39 passes for 229 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions across the first two games, and the Falcons became the only NFL offense that had not reached the red zone through Week 2.
Pitts has been almost completely removed from the offense, catching only one pass for 15 yards after producing 88 receptions for 928 yards and five touchdowns last season. Penix now makes his first start since tearing his ACL in November 2025 and practiced fully throughout the short week without receiving an injury designation.
Green Bay Packers (1-1, 0-1 NFC North)
Green Bay opened with a 39-22 loss at Minnesota before rallying from a 17-7 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Jets 20-17 in overtime. Jordan Love completed 16 of 29 passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2, but the Packers struggled to consistently move the ball and needed a late special-teams spark before eventually escaping in overtime.
The victory came at a significant cost. Receiver Jayden Reed, right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele and guard Aaron Banks are all out Thursday, while defensive tackle Warren Brinson is also unavailable and Javon Hargrave carries a questionable designation.
Falcons vs. Packers Head to Head
- September 17, 2023: Atlanta Falcons 25, Green Bay Packers 24
- October 5, 2020: Green Bay Packers 30, Atlanta Falcons 16
- December 9, 2018: Green Bay Packers 34, Atlanta Falcons 20
- September 17, 2017: Atlanta Falcons 34, Green Bay Packers 23
- October 30, 2016: Atlanta Falcons 33, Green Bay Packers 32
Atlanta won the most recent meeting 25-24 after producing 446 yards of offense, but Lambeau Field has historically been a much tougher setting. Green Bay is 12-4 at home against Atlanta in the regular-season series and has won the last four meetings between the teams at Lambeau.
Falcons vs. Packers Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, September 24th, 2026
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
- How to Watch: Prime Video
Falcons vs. Packers Odds
- Spread: Atlanta Falcons +5.5, Green Bay Packers -5.5
- Total Points: Over 43.5, Under 43.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta Falcons +200, Green Bay Packers -245
Click here for the latest Falcons vs. Packers Odds
Falcons vs. Packers Line Movement and Betting Splits
Green Bay was sitting around -6.5 before Atlanta announced Penix would make his season debut. The market immediately reacted by dropping the Packers as low as -4.5 before some Green Bay buyback pushed the number back toward -5.5. The initial move is significant because quarterback was clearly one of the biggest variables depressing Atlanta's early-season valuation.
Green Bay has 64% of spread bets but only 54% of the handle, while Atlanta has 36% of tickets and 46% of the money. That indicates the average wager on the Falcons has been noticeably larger even though Green Bay remains the more popular side.
The moneyline split is even more dramatic. Atlanta has only 24% of moneyline bets at +200 but 59% of the handle, while Green Bay has 76% of tickets yet only 41% of the money. The Over is the much more popular total position, attracting 61% of bets and 69% of the handle.
Falcons vs. Packers Prediction
Penix changes the calculation immediately. Atlanta's first two games were played with an offense that could barely threaten defenses vertically, and Rush finished with four interceptions against only one touchdown. Penix is coming off a major knee injury and has not played a regular-season snap since November, but he at least restores a quarterback who produced 1,982 yards, nine touchdowns and only three interceptions in nine starts last season while averaging 7.2 yards per attempt.
The player who may benefit most is Pitts. His disappearance through two games has been one of Atlanta's biggest offensive problems, especially after a 928-yard 2025 season. During Penix's nine starts last year, Pitts was targeted 53 times and caught 38 passes for 375 yards, establishing himself as one of the quarterback's most frequently used options behind London and Robinson.
There was also clear evidence of that connection before Penix's injury. Atlanta spent the 2025 offseason emphasizing Penix's chemistry with Pitts, with the quarterback consistently looking toward the tight end during camp. Pitts has only one catch this season, so Stefanski has every reason to manufacture easier completions for him over the middle and use the 6-foot-6 target as a security blanket for a quarterback returning from a long layoff.
Green Bay will make Atlanta earn everything on the ground. The Packers have allowed only 2.85 yards per carry through two games, the second-best mark in the league, which creates a difficult assignment for Robinson if Green Bay can continue loading the box. Penix's return matters here too because a credible downfield passing threat should make it harder for the Packers to completely sell out against Atlanta's best offensive player.
The other side of the line of scrimmage gives Atlanta a path to keeping this game close. Green Bay is without Bako-Bewele and Banks, while Reed is also out of the receiving rotation. Donovan Jennings is expected to be available, but the Packers are still piecing together an offensive line on a short week after multiple players left the Jets game injured.
Love and the Packers offense have not been explosive enough through two games to make laying nearly a touchdown comfortable. Green Bay produced only 20 points in an overtime game against New York and spent most of the second half trailing. The Packers eventually found enough offense to survive, but the performance did not suggest a team consistently creating separation from opponents.
Green Bay's defense and Lambeau Field remain legitimate concerns. The Packers have won 13 consecutive home openers, and Atlanta is asking Penix to make his first start after a third career ACL tear on the road in primetime. The Falcons also placed A.J. Terrell Jr. on injured reserve this week, creating a potentially exploitable weakness against Love.
The spread still provides meaningful protection. Atlanta does not have to completely solve its offensive problems in one night. Penix simply needs to make the Falcons functional enough to reach the high teens or low 20s and prevent Green Bay from playing the entire game with a comfortable two-score cushion.
Falcons vs. Packers Best Bet
- Best Bet: Falcons +5.5 (-115) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
The quarterback change is significant enough to justify the original market move toward Atlanta. Penix brings more arm talent and familiarity with London, Robinson and particularly Pitts than the offense showed with Rush, while Green Bay enters its home opener with several important injuries and has yet to produce a convincing offensive performance.
Penix does not need to immediately look like a Pro Bowl quarterback. If he can protect the football, reconnect with Pitts and give Robinson enough passing support to prevent Green Bay from crowding the line of scrimmage, Atlanta has a strong path to staying within one possession.
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