Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Top 5 Positive EV Bets for Falcons vs. Packers
The Atlanta Falcons visit the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football for an NFC matchup at Lambeau Field. Can Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson and Jordan Love capitalize on favorable player prop numbers under the primetime lights? Check out these Falcons vs. Packers 3 best bets for Thursday, September 24.
Peter Alexis - September 24, 2026, 7:30 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadFalcons vs. Packers Best Bets: Can Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson Step Up on Thursday Night Football?
Atlanta heads to Green Bay for an 8:15 PM ET Thursday Night Football matchup, with the Oddschecker+ Positive EV Tool identifying three markets with meaningful gaps between AI probability and the implied probability of the available odds. The card features two Falcons Overs built around offensive volume and a Jordan Love rushing prop that can cash on a single scramble.
Michael Penix Jr. carries the largest EV edge at 21.68%, while Bijan Robinson has a 66.82% probability of reaching 18 rushing attempts. Love rounds out the card with a modest 5.5-yard longest-rush threshold that gives him multiple paths to clear the number.
Falcons vs. Packers Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, September 24th, 2026
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
- How to Watch: Prime Video
Falcons vs. Packers Odds
- Spread: Atlanta Falcons +5.5, Green Bay Packers -5.5
- Total Points: Over 43.5, Under 43.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta Falcons +200, Green Bay Packers -245
Click here for the latest Falcons vs. Packers Odds
Falcons vs. Packers 3 Best Bets Breakdown
1. Michael Penix Jr. Over 200.5 Passing Yards (-120) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 66.37%
- Implied Probability: 54.55%
- EV: 21.68%
- Trend: Over in 6 of last 10
Penix has surpassed 200.5 passing yards in six of his last 10 games, and the current number gives him a relatively modest threshold for a full four-quarter workload. He does not need an explosive passing performance to cash, with 201 yards attainable through steady intermediate production and normal passing volume.
The game script could also work in his favor if Atlanta is forced to remain aggressive offensively in Green Bay. The model assigns the Over a 66.37% probability compared with 54.55% implied probability at -120, producing the strongest EV of the three selections at 21.68%.
2. Bijan Robinson Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-135) Check out the best odds at Fanatics Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 66.82%
- Implied Probability: 57.45%
- EV: 16.32%
- Trend: Over in 6 of last 10
Robinson has reached at least 18 carries in six of his last 10 games, and this market is primarily about Atlanta continuing to feature its top running back rather than requiring him to be especially efficient. A competitive game into the second half should give Robinson enough opportunities to threaten the number.
The Over also pairs naturally with an Atlanta offense looking to prevent Green Bay from dictating the pace. Sustained drives can keep Robinson involved throughout the night, while his 66.82% AI probability sits more than nine percentage points above the 57.45% implied probability of the -135 price.
3. Jordan Love Over 5.5 Longest Rush (-105) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 59.64%
- Implied Probability: 51.28%
- EV: 16.30%
- Trend: Over in 5 of last 10
Love has cleared a 5.5-yard longest rush in five of his last 10 games, so the historical trend alone is essentially a coin flip. The appeal comes from the extremely low threshold, with one six-yard scramble enough to settle the prop regardless of his total rushing volume.
Quarterback rushing markets like this can also benefit from broken plays and coverage situations rather than needing designed runs. Love should have several opportunities to leave the pocket if Atlanta's coverage holds downfield, and the model's 59.64% probability creates a solid edge over the 51.28% implied probability at -105.
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