Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Week 3 Odds for Sunday, September 27th
The New England Patriots travel to Jacksonville for an AFC matchup between two 1-1 teams trying to build momentum after contrasting Week 2 performances. Can Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville's healthier offense create enough separation from Drake Maye and a Patriots defense that just suffocated Pittsburgh? Check out this Patriots vs. Jaguars prediction and best bet for Sunday, September 27.
Peter Alexis - September 27, 2026, 11:30 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadPatriots vs. Jaguars Prediction: Can Jags Bounce Back at Home on Sunday Against Tough Pats D?
Jacksonville hosts New England at EverBank Stadium at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. The current cross-book market has the Jaguars favored by 3 at even money, with the total around 46.
New England rebounded from its opening loss in Seattle with a 20-3 win over Pittsburgh. Jacksonville went the opposite direction, following a 34-10 demolition of Cleveland with a 20-13 loss in Denver.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Recent Results
New England Patriots (1-1)
The Patriots have allowed only 16 points through two regular-season games, losing 13-10 at Seattle before beating Pittsburgh 20-3 at home. New England held the Steelers to 235 total yards and once again showed that Mike Vrabel's team can survive games even when the offense is not producing explosive numbers.
Linebackers Quintayvious Hutchins and Dre'Mont Jones are out, while safety Craig Woodson and tight end Eli Raridon are questionable. Carlton Davis III practiced fully and carries no game designation.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)
Jacksonville opened with a dominant 34-10 win over Cleveland before losing 20-13 in Denver. Lawrence has thrown four touchdowns against one interception through two games and enters Week 3 ranked ninth in EPA per play among quarterbacks.
The Jaguars also enter relatively healthy. Defensive tackle Albert Regis is doubtful, but Jacksonville listed no players as out and no other players as questionable on the final injury report.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, September 27th, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: CBS
Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds
Click here for the latest Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds
Patriots vs. Jaguars Line Movement and Betting Splits
Jacksonville opened around -2.5. One tracked market moved as low as -1.5 during the week, but the broader cross-book screen has since returned Jacksonville to -3 at even money.
The Jaguars have attracted 75% of spread bets and 86% of the handle, one of the more aligned favorite profiles on the early slate. The total climbed from 45 to 46 while the ticket and handle splits remain essentially even.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction
New England's defense is good enough to keep almost any opponent uncomfortable. Vrabel has built a unit capable of creating pressure, eliminating easy rushing lanes and forcing quarterbacks to string together long drives without mistakes.
Lawrence is playing well enough to handle that challenge. Four touchdowns against one interception is an encouraging start, and Jacksonville's passing game has enough options to avoid forcing everything toward one receiver.
The Jaguars' defense also creates a difficult test for Maye. Jacksonville can use Cover 6 structures to limit vertical throws while keeping enough bodies near the line to discourage New England from simply hiding in the running game. The Patriots have spent the week preparing specifically for those split-field looks. New England Patriots
New England's biggest problem is explosive scoring. The Patriots have produced 10 and 20 points, and one of those touchdowns against Pittsburgh came from the defense. That creates significant pressure on Maye to consistently sustain long possessions on the road.
Jacksonville is also healthier entering the matchup. The Jaguars have almost their entire preferred rotation available, while New England loses two linebackers and carries uncertainty at safety.
The Patriots' defensive strength makes laying a field goal more difficult than the records suggest. A 20-17 type of game remains realistic if New England prevents Lawrence from creating short fields and explosives.
Still, Jacksonville has the cleaner offensive path. Lawrence has been more productive through two weeks, the Jaguars are at home and the roster enters Sunday with fewer meaningful availability concerns.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Best Bet
- Best Bet: Jaguars -3 (+100) Check out these best odds at Fanatics Sportsbook
New England can make this ugly, but Jacksonville has the quarterback efficiency and defensive structure needed to gradually create separation. The Jaguars also have far more market support by both ticket count and handle.
At exactly -3, the key number provides some protection compared with laying -3.5. A field-goal Jacksonville win pushes, while anything beyond that cashes.
More Football Odds
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
