Texans vs. Colts Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Week 3 Odds for Sunday, September 27th
The Houston Texans visit Indianapolis in an early AFC South matchup between two 0-2 teams facing immediate pressure to prevent September from slipping away. Can Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor capitalize on Houston's offensive injuries while C.J. Stroud tries to rediscover the scoring touch missing against Cincinnati? Check out this Texans vs. Colts prediction and best bet for Sunday, September 27.
Peter Alexis - September 27, 2026, 11:35 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadTexans vs. Colts Prediction: Which Winless AFC South Team Will Get First Victory on Sunday?
Houston travels to Lucas Oil Stadium for a 1:00 PM ET kickoff on CBS. The Texans are narrow road favorites, but the preferred betting position is Indianapolis at +2.5 where the extra half-point remains available.
Both clubs have played difficult schedules. Houston lost 36-31 to Buffalo and 20-6 to Cincinnati, while Indianapolis lost 41-23 to Baltimore before taking Kansas City to overtime in a 33-30 defeat.
Texans vs. Colts Recent Results
Houston Texans (0-2, 0-0 AFC South)
Stroud threw for 353 yards against Cincinnati but Houston failed to score a touchdown, finishing with only six points despite repeatedly moving the football. The Texans rushed for only 18 yards as an offense and allowed four sacks.
Houston remains without Nico Collins, Jadeveon Clowney and starting guard Ed Ingram. Safety M.J. Stewart and linebacker Jake Hummel are also out, while tackle Trent Brown is questionable.
Indianapolis Colts (0-2, 0-0 AFC South)
Indianapolis was far more competitive in Week 2 after its opening loss to Baltimore, taking Kansas City to overtime before falling 33-30. Jones has looked functional in his return from last season's Achilles injury, while Taylor remains the player around whom the offense is most naturally built.
The Colts will be without Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin, but Keenan Allen, Taylor, DeForest Buckner and Sauce Gardner all carry no game designation. Cornerback Charvarius Ward is questionable.
Texans vs. Colts Head to Head
- January 4, 2026: Houston Texans 38, Indianapolis Colts 30
- November 30, 2025: Houston Texans 20, Indianapolis Colts 16
- October 27, 2024: Houston Texans 23, Indianapolis Colts 20
- September 8, 2024: Houston Texans 29, Indianapolis Colts 27
- January 6, 2024: Houston Texans 23, Indianapolis Colts 19
Houston has won five straight in the rivalry, including both meetings last season. The most recent matchup produced 68 points, but the four before it were all decided by seven points or fewer.
Texans vs. Colts Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, September 27th, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
- How to Watch: CBS
Texans vs. Colts Odds
Click here for the latest Texans vs. Colts Odds
Texans vs. Colts Line Movement and Betting Splits
Houston opened around -1.5 and moved to approximately -2 in the tracked market. The ticket count favors the Texans with 58% of wagers, but they have only 33% of the handle.
Indianapolis has only 42% of spread bets but 67% of the money. That is a meaningful larger-average-wager profile on the home underdog, particularly with +2.5 still available at some books.
The total has dropped from 43.5 to 42.5, with the Under holding a modest 53% of the handle.
Texans vs. Colts Prediction
Houston's defense remains the strongest individual unit in this matchup. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter can make Jones uncomfortable without requiring constant blitzes, and Indianapolis is not built to thrive if it becomes completely one-dimensional.
Taylor is therefore the key to the Colts' path. Indianapolis needs to stay committed to the run even if early gains are modest, because allowing Houston's edge rushers to attack Jones on obvious passing downs is the quickest way for this game to separate.
The Texans' offensive injuries are significant enough to level the matchup. Collins is the receiver most capable of creating difficult one-on-one catches outside, and his absence was obvious against Cincinnati when Stroud accumulated yards without generating touchdowns.
Losing Ingram also affects a line that already allowed four sacks last week. Indianapolis has Buckner and Grover Stewart available inside, giving the Colts a direct path to attacking Houston before routes can develop.
Jones does not need to outplay Stroud statistically. He needs to protect the football, use Allen and Josh Downs underneath and let Taylor create manageable downs. That type of game plan can keep this inside a field goal deep into the fourth quarter.
Houston's five-game winning streak in the series deserves respect, but most of those games were close. Indianapolis lost by four, three, two and four in four of the five, exactly the type of margins that make +2.5 valuable.
The betting distribution strengthens that case. Houston is receiving more individual tickets, yet nearly two-thirds of the spread money has landed on Indianapolis. In a matchup between winless divisional opponents, taking the home side above two points is attractive.
Texans vs. Colts Best Bet
- Best Bet: Colts +2.5 (-115) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Houston's defense can absolutely win this game, but the Texans enter without their top receiver and multiple other important starters. Indianapolis has the healthier core around Jones and Taylor and nearly beat a much stronger Kansas City team last week.
The number is the deciding factor. Houston has repeatedly beaten Indianapolis by small margins, and +2.5 protects against another one- or two-point Texans victory while positioning the Colts to cash outright if home field swings the final possession.
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