Vikings vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Week 3 Odds for Sunday, September 27th
The Minnesota Vikings visit Tampa Bay looking to remain unbeaten as Kyler Murray returns to the starting lineup against an 0-2 Buccaneers team desperate to stabilize its season. Can Murray, Justin Jefferson and Baker Mayfield generate more offense against two defenses that have already shown the ability to dictate games? Check out this Vikings vs. Buccaneers prediction and best bet for Sunday, September 27.
Peter Alexis - September 27, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadVikings vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Can Baker Mayfield, Bucs Bounce Back From Winless Start Against Undefeated Vikings?
Minnesota visits Raymond James Stadium at 4:05 PM ET on FOX. The Vikings are slight road favorites around -1.5, while the total has been driven down to 42.5 after opening several points higher.
Minnesota is 2-0 after beating Green Bay 39-22 and Chicago 9-3. Tampa Bay is 0-2 following losses to Cincinnati and Cleveland and has scored only one passing touchdown despite Mayfield attempting 62 passes.
Vikings vs. Buccaneers Recent Results
Minnesota Vikings (2-0, 2-0 NFC North)
Minnesota's offense exploded after Murray left the opener with a concussion, then relied almost entirely on defense and special teams in the 9-3 win at Chicago. The Vikings forced two turnovers and recorded the final sack to secure a game that never produced a touchdown.
Murray is back for Week 3 after clearing the concussion protocol. Aaron Jones and Brian O'Neill are also good to play, while backup center Nick Samac is out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2)
Tampa Bay lost 33-27 in Cincinnati before falling 23-19 at home to Cleveland. Mayfield threw for only 182 yards with one touchdown and one interception in Week 2, leaving him with 398 passing yards and one touchdown through two games.
The Buccaneers are without rookie edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., while linebacker Josiah Trotter is also unavailable. Mayfield practiced fully throughout the week despite an illness, and Jalen McMillan carries no injury designation.
Vikings vs. Buccaneers Head to Head
- September 10, 2023: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Minnesota Vikings 17
- December 13, 2020: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26, Minnesota Vikings 14
- September 24, 2017: Minnesota Vikings 34, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
- October 26, 2014: Minnesota Vikings 19, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 (OT)
- October 25, 2012: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36, Minnesota Vikings 17
Tampa Bay has won the last two meetings, and both finished below Sunday's 42.5 total. The Buccaneers also held Minnesota to 17 points in the most recent matchup despite playing on the road.
Vikings vs. Buccaneers Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, September 27th, 2026
- Time: 4:05 PM ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
- How to Watch: FOX
Vikings vs. Buccaneers Odds
Click here for the latest Vikings vs. Buccaneers Odds
Vikings vs. Buccaneers Line Movement and Betting Splits
Minnesota opened around -2.5 before dropping close to -1, with the Buccaneers drawing 55% of spread bets and 62% of the handle. Tampa Bay is also attracting an unusually large 88% of moneyline handle despite only 57% of moneyline tickets.
The more relevant movement is the total, which opened at 44.5 and has fallen to 42.5. The Under has only 48% of wagers but 69% of the handle, creating a larger-average-wager profile on the lower-scoring outcome.
Vikings vs. Buccaneers Prediction
Minnesota's defense is the strongest reason to play the Under. The Vikings have allowed only 25 points through two games and just held a Chicago offense that scored 59 in Week 1 to three points.
Brian Flores' pressure packages create a particularly difficult assignment for Mayfield. Tampa Bay has already allowed seven sacks, and Mayfield has produced only one passing touchdown while dealing with protection and turnover problems.
The return of Murray raises Minnesota's offensive ceiling, but it does not automatically create a high-scoring game. He played only a handful of snaps in Week 1 before the concussion, meaning this is effectively his first full game running Kevin O'Connell's offense.
Minnesota has also leaned more heavily on the running game than almost any team in football. Jones being cleared gives the Vikings another reason to maintain that approach rather than asking Murray to throw aggressively in his first full game back.
Jefferson is the matchup problem Tampa Bay must solve. Murray targeted him immediately before getting hurt in Week 1, and Minnesota can use that connection to generate efficient offense without necessarily increasing pace.
The Buccaneers are also capable of contributing to an Under even while playing better offensively. Bucky Irving can keep Tampa Bay on schedule, and Mayfield should benefit from McMillan returning to a normal workload, but longer methodical possessions would still help drain the clock.
The total has already been adjusted downward, but 42.5 still requires both offenses to consistently reach the end zone. Minnesota's defense and Tampa Bay's early offensive inefficiency make something closer to the high 30s more realistic.
Vikings vs. Buccaneers Best Bet
- Best Bet: Under 42.5 (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Minnesota is allowing only 12.5 points per game, while Tampa Bay has produced just one passing touchdown through two weeks. Murray's return helps the Vikings, but his lack of live reps in this offense creates its own early-game uncertainty.
The move from 44.5 to 42.5 is substantial, yet the underlying matchup still points lower. Minnesota can control the game through defense and the run, while Tampa Bay has not shown enough passing efficiency to force a shootout.
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