PGA Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Pick Rose, Woodland to Bloom Again at the PGA

PGA Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Pick Rose, Woodland to Bloom Again at the PGA

The PGA Championship moved back to May in 2019, and now it serves as the second major championship of the golf season. Whilst there won't be the same fanfare for this event as there was for the Masters back in April, this major championship has given us some great stories over the years.

Just last year Mito Pereira stood on the 72nd hole with the championship in his hands, but he capitulated, missed the playoff by one, and gifted Justin Thomas his second PGA Championship title. That would have been Pereira's first PGA Tour win and one he'd have bagged before making the switch to LIV Golf.

Interestingly, when Thomas beat Will Zalatoris in a playoff at Southern Hills to win this event twelve months ago, he became the third player in the last four years to win his second PGA Championship title, suggesting this is an event player's can go back to the well in.

Brooks Koepka defended his title in 2019 before Collin Morikawa won his first major in 2020. Phil Mickelson then miraculously won the 2021 PGA Championship, before Thomas won last year. Morikawa then was the only player since 2018 that was winning this event for the first time.

Fear not though. As we almost saw with Mito Pereira last year and certainly with Mickelson in 2021 that longshots can contend at this event still.

To get an idea of the players we are picking from in the +4000 range and beyond, check out the best odds for the PGA Championship now.

When it comes to major championships, you may not be convinced sleepers and value picks can prosper, but below we will analyze our favorite longshots and help you feel better about taking some value in the 2023 PGA Championship.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 PGA Championship, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 guaranteed on your golfer, even if they go on to lose. So bet on the PGA Championship with added confidence this week!

What Skillset is Required to Succeed at the 2023 PGA Championship

Oak Hill went under a major renovation ahead of this year's PGA Championship and the work Andrew Green has done means this event will likely play out entirely differently than it did a decade ago. No longer will accuracy off the tee be the main concern, but instead, Driving Distance may well be king.

• Driving Distance - With many 300+ yards forced carries, and two par 5s both stretching over 600 yards, those that can bomb it off the tee will certainly have an advantage this time around. There is more nuance to his course than you might expect when distance is flagged as a key stat, but distance will certainly be the driving force here.
• SG Around the Green - Around the Green play should be a factor this week, with the previously thick areas around the greens now replaced with run-off areas that we have become accustomed to seeing in major championship tests. Bunker play could also be key this week.
• SG Tee-to-Green - Overall, like ever, those who play strong across the board in the SG Tee-to-Green metrics should certainly rise to the top here, should their short games cooperate.

PGA Championship Trends - How to Find a Winner at Oak Hill This Week

With the PGA Championship rotating courses every year, it is not as easy as Augusta in terms of creating yearly trends, but there are some generic numbers that may just point us to a PGA Championship pick. Let's break them down below.

• 8 of the last 10 winners of the PGA Championship have been American. This suggests this major is unsurprisingly dominated by the home contingent
• 7 of the last 10 winners have ranked inside the top 15 of the Official World Golf Ranking when they won. Phil Mickelson was the clear outlier back in 2021 when he won when ranked just 116th in the world. Jimmy Walker was ranked 48th the year he won, and it is Jason Dufner (21st) who won at this course 10 years ago, that completes the list of more surprising winners.
• 8 of the last 10 winners have posted a top 20 finish in their most recent start prior to their PGA Championship win. Once again it was Phil Mickelson who bucked this trend most recently, going from 69th at the Wells Fargo, to winning here. Justin Thomas had finished T28 one start before his 2017 PGA Championship win as well.
• 7 of the last 10 winners had also posted a top 10 finish in one of the two most recent majors. This is another trend Mickelson busted in 2021, whilst Collin Morikawa's first ever major top 10 came when winning this event in 2020. Jimmy Walker had posted three top 10 finishes in majors before his 2016 PGA Championship win, but they all came in 2014, two years prior. In his first three major starts of 2016, Walker finished T29-MC-MC.

These trends suggest we are looking for:

• Someone who ranks at least high enough on the World Rankings to be considered a strong player. Not many in the Top 15 of the World Rankings will qualify for the Sleepers and Value Picks criteria.
• Someone who has posted a top-20 finish in a recent start
• Someone who has previous success in majors

It is not going to be easy to tick off all these boxes and be a sleeper this week, but we will find the players that best fit the mold whilst still qualifying under the odds criteria.

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win The PGA Championship

Here are the pre-tournament odds of the last 10 winners of the PGA Championship

2022 - Justin Thomas +1600

2021 - Phil Mickelson +25000

2020 - Collin Morikawa +3500

2019 - Brooks Koepka +1100

2018 - Brooks Koepka +2000

2017 - Justin Thomas +4500

2016 - Jimmy Walker +15000

2015 - Jason Day +1400

2014 - Rory McIlroy +500

2013 - Jason Dufner +4000

It is a bit of a mixed bag at the PGA Championship in terms of pre-tournament odds, but in recent enough memory, both Phil Mickelson (2021) and Justin Thomas (2017) would have qualified under our '40-1 and bigger' criteria. If Mito Pereira had won last year as he should have done, that would have been three of the last six and four of the last seven winners qualifying as Sleepers and Value Picks.

Without further ado, let's look at the players who are priced at +4000 and bigger, who I believe can contend for the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 PGA Championship

Max Homa +4000 (Bet $20 on Max Homa, Get $100 in Bonus Bets with Unibet)

Max Homa is the 6th best player in the world according to the Official World Golf Rankings, and considering he's generally struggled in the four biggest events of the year, that is a lofty standing.

This position in the OWGR was earned by Homa securing three wins since the beginning of May last year, and now it is time for him to step up in a bigger event.

Everyone has got their eye on Homa for the US Open, and that makes sense given he is a generally better player in California, where he was born. I believe he can put in a better performance here though, where the demands are greater and may well align better with his game.

So far, Homa has only posted one top-15 finish in a major championship, and that came in this event twelve months ago.

For whatever reason, Homa finally found himself in a position to finish a major championship on the first page of the leaderboard at Southern Hills, as he entered the final day in 10th place. He shot a one-over-par final round to slip down into 13th, but anything level par or better would have seen him crack the top 10.

Since then Homa has made the cut at the 2022 US Open (T47) and the 2023 Masters (T43). A final-round 78 robbed Homa of the chance to post just a second top 25 in a major that week at Augusta, but now is the time for him to find another top finish.

Wins at Quail Hollow, Riviera, and Torrey Pines continue to add to the belief that Max Homa is capable of competing in golf's biggest events, and it is a mindset switch rather than skillset that is holding him back.

Homa clearly knows week-to-week he is one of the best, but when it comes to these major championships it seems there is a mental block.

Statistically, though, he rates out perfectly here, ranking 9th in SG Approach, 13th in SG Tee to Green, 10th in SG Putting, and 26th in SG Around the Green. Add to that 22nd in Total Driving, and 3rd in Approaches from 200-225 Yards, and you have a player that looks suited to challenge ahead.

Justin Rose +12500 (Bet $1 on Rose, Win $200 Guaranteed with Bet365)

Justin Rose was on my list of sleepers and value picks for the Masters and he's cracked the list again, this time at a far bigger price, for the 2023 PGA Championship.

I ultimately believe the odds are wrong on Justin Rose who has quietly continued to impress since his win at Pebble Beach earlier this season and has a rich history in this part of the country, and on Donald Ross designs.

Rose is a winner and runner-up at Aronimink Golf Club, a Donald Ross design in Pennsylvania, and his sole major win also came in Pennsylvania at the 2013 US Open.

Sure we are in New York this week, but the two states are in close enough proximity, and when you also consider Rose's 6th and 16th place finishes at Plainfield a Donald Ross-designed course in New Jersey, and his two runner-up finishes at East Lake, he has plenty of pleasing correlating form from a location and course designer standpoint.

Looking at major venues that may provide some clues for this week, Pinehurst No.2 hosted the 2014 US Open, where Rose finished T12 and Shinnecock Hills (also in New York) played host to the 2018 US Open, where Rose finished T10, both of which provide some additional confidence behind the Englishman.

Whilst Rose is no longer among the biggest hitters on Tour, he boasts an excellent short game and is perfectly capable with a long iron in his hand so I trust him to play well here.

Since winning at Pebble Beach, Rose has finished 6th at The Players, played solidly enough at the Valspar, and then finished 16th at The Masters, where he was placed inside the top-10 going into the final round. Most recently he finished 25th at the RBC Heritage, where he was 2nd after 36-holes, before falling away over the weekend.

Rose can boast four top-10 finishes in this major championship in his career, two of which came over the past three years, so Rose strikes me as a strong longshot here, given he's not finished worse than T29 in a PGA Championship over the past four years.

This wouldn't quite be as shocking as Phil Mickelson winning in 2021, but it does feel like we are nearing last chance saloon for Justin Rose when it comes to major championships, and that in itself will be motivating enough for the former World No.1.

Gary Woodland +16000 (Bet $5 on Gary Woodland, Get $150 Guaranteed at FanDuel)

Look at where Gary Woodland has played the best golf of his career and you will see plenty of pointers that work nicely for this week's PGA Championship, and his game is trending in the right direction as well.

So far in 2023, Woodland has posted just three top 15 finishes, but one of them came at the Masters, which was his best finish yet at Augusta, and the other two came at Riviera (T9) and then again last time out at Quail Hollow (T14).

Woodland's Tee to Green game looks incredibly good of late, ranking 3rd and 1st in that category over his past two starts and that should give him the confidence he needs to challenge at Oak Hill.

It is only the 2019 US Open champion's putting that is holding him back, but in an event where birdies will be at a premium and many will be putting for par anyway, this lack of form may well be hidden.

Woodland's US Open win came at Pebble Beach another course where cold conditions and small greens came into play, and when you also factor in his top 10 finish at Brookline last year in the 2022 US Open, and his back-to-back top 8 finishes in this event in 2018 and 2019, you will quickly see why I like Woodland in the triple-digits range.

The 2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage Black may well be another leaderboard worth looking at given it was a tough PGA Championship in New York, and with a best-of-day, final-round 68, Woodland managed to crack the top 10 there.

Despite a lack of consistent finishes this season, Woodland still ranks 10th in SG Approach, 10th in SG Off the Tee, 22nd in SG Tee to Green, 8th in Driving Distance, and 12th in Total Driving. Add in the fact that he is absolutely crushing it with his long irons and you have a profile of a very strong contender here, should his short game cooperate.

Woodland ranks 3rd in Approaches >200 Yards, 5th in Approaches 200-225 Yards, and 7th in Approaches 250-275 Yards. He also ranks 11th from 150-175 so his mid-irons are strong as well. Therefore the prospect of having to layup off the tee with 3 wood and hit a mid-to-long approach into these greens should hardly faze this ball-striking machine.