RBC Canadian Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Kim, Hodges for Success in Canada

RBC Canadian Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Kim, Hodges for Success in Canada

We are one week away from the third major championship of the season, and as I sit here and wonder where the time has gone, it is time to find a value winner for the 2023 RBC Canadian Open.

Both Si Woo Kim and Rickie Fowler were in the mix during yesterday's round for us yesterday but neither could pull off the win, as Viktor Hovland beat Denny McCarthy in the playoff to secure a win at Jack's Place.

Now we head to a new course in Canada for the RBC Canadian Open. When I say new golf course, I do not mean it in the literal sense, as it has been around since 1926, but it is new to us PGA Tour viewers and bettors, who will be following the RBC Canadian Open this week.

After an elite field gathered for the Memorial last week it is no surprise to see a weaker event ahead of next week's U.S. Open, but it is a shame given the RBC Canadian Open is steeped in so much history.

A strong European contingent, featuring Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry all top this field, and ensure there is some value at least, further down the board.

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What Skillset is Required to Succeed at the 2023 RBC Canadian Open?

There is a bit of guesswork involved considering we are at a new course on the rotation, but Oakdale Golf and Country Club could well play similar to last year's venue, St. George's, and may play even easier than 12 months ago.

Expect to see a lot of wedges and short iron play this week, and as ever with birdie fests, your putter needs to be red hot.

• SG Approach - You are not going to contend here without being dialed in on your approaches. Look for evidence of players hitting their scoring clubs well, in order to find a winner this week.
• SG Putting (Bentgrass/Poa Greens) - This week we are getting a mix of Bentgrass and Poa greens, so look for the best players on those putting surfaces. TPC River Highlands and Detroit Golf Club feature Bent/Poa mixed greens, as did last year's Canadian Open venue, so you could use form at those events as a tie-breaker if you need to.
• Approaches 75-100 Yards - It's very rare in this day and age that this is a key range, but this week there could be a little of second and third shots from this range, whether it be on the shorter par 4's or the par 5's, so look to those who are hitting approaches <100 yards well.

RBC Canadian Open Betting Trends

With a course rotation it is really hard to quantify the betting trends in an event like this, but let's look at some standout points that may guide you to a winner this week.

• Four of the last six winners have ranked inside the world's top 10. Jhonattan Vegas has won twice, ranked 204th and 78th.
• Six of the last seven winners of this event have been internationals. Dustin Johnson is the only American winner of this event since Brandt Snedeker in 2013.

These trends don't offer much in terms of finding a value winner, and instead, point to the group of Europeans at the top of the market, but I wanted to highlight them.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the RBC Canadian Open?

Let's take a look at the last six winners of the RBC Canadian Open, to see what their pre-event odds were, and whether there is any hope for sleepers and value picks this week.

To qualify as a Sleeper and Value Pick, you must have been +4000 or bigger pre-tournament.

2022 - Rory McIlroy (+900)

2019 - Rory McIlroy (+1000)

2018 - Dustin Johnson (+550)

2017 - Jhonattan Vegas (+15000)

2016 - Jhonattan Vegas (+12000)

2015 - Jason Day (+800)

Four of the last six winners of this event have been +1000 or shorter, which reflects the gulf in quality between the top of the market and the rest of the field at times, in this event.

With a slightly weaker top of the market though, I am inclined to think we could get someone of Jhonattan Vegas' ilk win here, especially given it was an elevated event last week, and a major next week.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 RBC Canadian Open

Here are the three picks above +4000 that I believe can contend this weekend at the 2023 RBC Canadian Open.

Michael Kim +9500 (Bet Kim Sweat-Free up to $2500 at FanDuel)

Michael Kim is well and truly on the comeback trail, and if it wasn't for the depth of talent on the PGA Tour these days I'd almost roll out the cliché "he must win soon".

I won't make such a definitive statement about a player, who respectfully is still +9500 in a weaker field, but I do think he is more than capable of contending for his second PGA Tour title this week.

When looking for shorter courses with easy scoring conditions, it would make perfect sense to include TPC Deere Run, the home of the John Deere Classic, where Michael Kim ran away with things in 2018.

Last year's leaderboard strangely gives some crossover to Quail Hollow, with Rory McIlroy a master of that course, last year's Canadian Open winner. Of course, Rory can win anyway so that doesn't say much, but Justin Thomas, Wyndham Clark, and Keith Mitchell all reaffirm the case, as does Justin Rose.

Kim was 7th three starts ago at Quail Hollow and then on his last start finished 6th at Colonial, where driving distance doesn't matter, but accuracy and strong approaches certainly do.

In short, Michael Kim has made 8 of his last 9 cuts, has finished inside the top 7 three times in that span, and has proven with his 2018 John Deere Classic win, that he can excel in birdie-fest events. Back Kim at +9500 and hope he can get his win before going off at +2000 in weaker fields.

Lee Hodges +11000 (Bet $5, Win $200 Guaranteed on Hodges With DraftKings)

Lee Hodges is putting together a really strong bank of form in stronger fields than this, including a major and an elevated event, and now he can take advantage of the downgrade in event.

Hodges ranked 43rd in SG Approach at the PGA Championship but has ranked 8th and 6th in his two starts since, and when it comes to his all-round game, he has ranked 27th, 13th, and 13th in SG Tee to Green.

Those numbers are quite eye-catching given the level of fields he is achieving them in and now it is time for him to contend and break into the world's top 100 for the first time.

Yes, this would be a longshot winner that doesn't come along too often in this event, but the circumstances of an elevated event and a major on either side are not something we are used to at the U.S. Open, and I think that opens things up a bit.

Hodges' best finishes on the PGA Tour have come at The American Express (3rd) and the Texas Open (T7), events where the winning scores were -23 and -15, so it appears these low-scoring events may suit him best.

Brandt Snedeker +25000 (Get a $50 Free Bet When You Bet With DraftKings)

There is a bit of bias in this pick, but there's also some reasoning, and at 250-1 I think there were enough positives in Brandt Snedeker's game last week to warrant a flyer selection here.

Snedeker returned at the Memorial Tournament last week, playing just his second event of the season, after undoing experimental surgery on his sternum.

That sounds quite worrying, and it could be that Snedeker's winning days are done, but if there is any winning form left in the veteran, it may just come to fruition here in Canada.

Snedker ranked 26th in SG Approach and 34th in SG Tee to Green last week, on a course where he is at a clear disadvantage right away off the tee. Now, he returns to Canada where he's played some of his best golf and he gets a chance to play a course where distance may not matter.

Over the years, Snedeker has won one Canadian Open and finished inside the top-8 five more times, and it is that record and his decent iron play last week that leads me to believe he could cause a shock here.

For a long time, Snedeker's putting carried him to PGA Tour titles but that is what has left him down in recent years. If he can turn things around with that club this week, we might just be in with a shot at getting at least some each-way returns from Snedeker.