U.S. Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Hatton, DeChambeau at Los Angeles Country Club

U.S. Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Hatton, DeChambeau at Los Angeles Country Club

The U.S. Open is a historic event and one that many golfers, especially those born in the United States, would love to win. The USGA does set up golf courses in a particular way though, which means there are many golfers that will simply feel like they can't compete at such a test.

Ultimately, Los Angeles Country Club will be another course that rewards the best drivers in the game, and whilst there may be more creativity required here compared to U.S. venues of the past, perhaps akin to what we've seen at Augusta and St. Andrews, it is important to remember that first and foremost, this is a U.S. Open.

To get an idea of the pool of players available to us at the +4000 range and beyond, check out the best odds for the U.S. Open now.

When it comes to major championships, there may be a lack of confidence in sleepers and value picks, but the U.S. Open has thrown up some longshot winners in recent memory, and there's certainly a group of golfers that qualify for this list, who are playing plenty well enough to win a U.S. Open.

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What Skillset is Required to Succeed at the 2023 U.S. Open?

Los Angeles Country Club is one of the most exclusive golf clubs in America and certainly in California, and outside of amateur events like the PAC-12 Championships and the 2017 Walker Cup it is not often used for big events. Now they have been convinced to use this venue for a major championship, let's look at what it might take to win here.

• Total Driving - There may not be such a stress on Driving Accuracy this week, with a potential Augusta feel to it, in terms of what you can do off the tee, but it will still be advantageous to be long and straight and that has been the recipe for success in recent U.S. Open's. The last three U.S. Open winners have all ranked inside the top 5 for SG Off the Tee the week they won the U.S. Open.
• SG Putting (Bentgrass Greens) - There are true Bentgrass Greens here at Los Angeles Country Club, not the typical Poa mix you would see in California, so it would be beneficial to look at those that putt best on this surface.
• Long Iron Play - I am not going to get too bogged down in Proximity buckets because a 175-yard shot at Los Angeles Country Club would be nothing like one at Memorial for example, but those that are generally hitting their long irons well are worth considering.

U.S. Open Trends - How to Find a Winner at Los Angeles Country Club This Week

With a new course comes plenty of question marks, but there are some strong trends at past U.S. Opens that we should still consider.

• 8 of the last 10 U.S. Open winners were winning their first major. This feels like a trend of consequence, rather than a pre-requisite, as looking back there were just a lot of players who were due a major win when winning this title. It is still one to keep in mind though, as it appears to reward golfers who are capable of breaking through.
• 9 of the last 10 U.S. Open winners had finished inside the top 10 in one of their last two majors
• The last 8 U.S. Open winners had finished inside the top 13 of their most recent major start, before winning the U.S. Open.
• 10 of the last 10 U.S. Open winners were ranked inside the top 30 at the time of their U.S. Open victory. Six of them were ranked inside the top 10!

These trends suggest we are looking for:

• A first-time major winner
• Someone who has posted a Top 10 in one of their last two majors
• Someone who has posted a Top 13 finish in a major this season
• Someone who ranks inside the World's top 30

Finding someone that fits this bill whilst also qualifying as a sleeper at 40-1 odds and above will be tough, but we will do our best to find the most valuable players that fit the bill.

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win The U.S. Open?

Here are the pre-tournament odds of the last 10 winners of the U.S. Open

2022 - Matt Fitzpatrick +3000

2021 - Jon Rahm +1000

2020 - Bryson DeChambeau +2500

2019 - Gary Woodland +8000

2018 - Brooks Koepka +2500

2017 - Brooks Koepka +4500

2016 - Dustin Johnson +1600

2015 - Jordan Spieth +900

2014 - Martin Kaymer +4000

2013 - Justin Rose +2800

The U.S. Open has provided a bit of a mixed bag over the past decade when it comes to winners. On one side it has been friendly to first-time winners, but ultimately they have been winners that were more often than not, expected to win a major at some point soon.

This looks like an event that will play into the favorites' hands, given the driving prowess required, but history suggests those between +4000 and +8000 can have success here, which we will rely on with our picks below.

Without further ado, let's look at the players who are priced at +4000 and bigger, who I believe can contend for the 2023 U.S. Open, at Los Angeles Country Club.

Tyrrell Hatton +4000 (Get $1250 on Caesars Sportsbook to bet on Hatton)

Last week I bet Tyrrell Hatton to win the RBC Canadian Open at +1200. He ultimately fell one shot shy of making the play-off, and a lot of that was to do with a quiet moving day on Saturday.

He rallied back with a final-round 64 which included a double bogey though, and right away, I find myself ready to go in again on Hatton.

Many will wait until the Open Championship at Hoylake and I understand that sentiment, but he's been just as reliable in US majors as he has in the Open, and I just think it's a case of everything coming together for one week, rather than where it is.

One concern would be that his best major performances have come on the East Coast, and his T6 in this event in particular came at Shinnecock Hills in New York. With that said, there is talk of some similarities between the 2018 venue and this week's test, and if that is the case, it only bolsters my opinion of Hatton's chances.

3rd in SG: Total, 7th in SG Tee to Green and SG Putting, 11th in SG Off the Tee, and 17th in SG Approach, Hatton truly is the whole package. Being very harsh, his around-the-green game could do with some work, but I think he's inventive enough to succeed in that area here.

Hatton's two major starts this season have seen him finish T34 at the Masters and T15 at the PGA Championship, but he achieved the latter after opening with a 77, and it is certainly easy to wonder where'd have finished with a faster start.

At 40-1, you are getting what I believe to be a top 10 player in the world.

Bryson DeChambeau +4500 (Get a $250 Bonus When You Bet on Bryson with PointsBet)

The case for Bryson DeChambeau is based on a smaller sample size, but he might just be my favorite longshot of the week when it's all said and done.

DeChambeau is a former U.S. Open winner, so knows what it takes to win this event. He won at Winged Foot in 2020, a course that was re-designed by Gil Hanse, who also prepared Los Angeles Country Club for this modern-day test.

Bryson was in 4th place going into the final round on his title defense at Torrey Pines back in 2021 before a poor final round, and the California native also finished 4th at the 2020 PGA Championship at Harding Park, so he's comfortable playing majors in this part of the world.

Three of Bryson's wins have come on Gil Hanse redesigns, at the 2018 Northern Trust, the 2018 Dell Technologies Championship, and the 2020 U.S. Open, and he might just add another with a win at Los Angeles Country Club this week.

Bryson recently finished 4th at the PGA Championship, and he was also 8th at last year's Open Championship at St. Andrews, so he's played well in recent majors, and when you look at the fact he was both long and straight off the tee at Oak Hill, it bodes well for his chances here.

DeChambeau ranked 2nd behind only Scottie Scheffler in Total Driving at the PGA Championship, leading the field in distance and ranking 9th for accuracy. Add in the fact he was 15th in SG Approach that week, and ranked 2nd in Greens in Regulation and it looks like Bryson's all-around game could be back just in time for another U.S. Open.

Justin Rose +4800 (Bet $2500 Sweat-Free on Justin Rose at FanDuel)

I am now 3/3 when it comes to picking Justin Rose in the majors this year, and whilst his odds are shorter this time around, his case continues to grow stronger.

Rose was 16th at Augusta, but was 9th going into the final round, and last time out at the PGA Championship he finished 9th, but was 5th going into the final round, and was well in contention on the front nine.

Yes, he's clearly struggling to piece it together for four rounds, as he showed again at the RBC Canadian Open last week, where he was two behind going into the final round in T2 and ended up finishing 8th. That is a concern but as a former U.S. Open winner, I think he has the right mentality to hold onto a lead in this tournament, should he find himself in that position over the weekend.

10th and 3rd in this major since his win at the 2013 U.S. Open and multiple top 10s at both the Masters and the PGA Championship in that span as well, Rose clearly feels comfortable playing majors in America, and he looks somewhat close to his best right now, so I can see him contending in another.

In three of the last four majors on the West Coast, Rose has played well, finishing 9th at the 2020 PGA Championship at Harding Park, T3 at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, and T27 at the 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay. Add that to his major performances so far this season, and his win at Pebble Beach earlier in the year, and you have a rock-solid sleeper and value pick for the 2023 U.S. Open.

Si Woo Kim +12500 (Get $1250 on Caesars Sportsbook to bet on Kim)

I still think the best is yet to come for Si Woo Kim, and considering he's a four-time PGA Tour winner, who has also lost three playoffs on the PGA Tour, these are fairly lofty standards I hold him by.

Yes, Kim has never finished top 10 in a major championship, but he went into the final round of the 2017 U.S. Open three back in 6th place and fell two shots shy of that mark at Erin Hills, and he's finished top 15 in all four majors already.

Kim finished one shot back of 10th at the 2021 Masters and it was the same situation at the 2020 PGA Championship which was held at Harding Park, also in California.

All this to say that Kim has hardly been far off in his major efforts so far, and for someone who we know can win, has already done so this year, and was close to adding a second last time out at Memorial, Kim looks good value at triple digits.

Kim has gained strokes on approach in his last five events, and has finished T2 and T4 in that span, both times having a shot at winning!

Already a winner this season, Kim can now make a step up in the major championships, company he's already proven he can beat, as a 21-year-old at the Players Championship.