Genesis Scottish Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Rose and Rai in Scotland

Genesis Scottish Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Rose and Rai in Scotland

The PGA Tour is BACK with an elite field, as some of the world's best golfers compete for the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open at the Rennaisance Club.

Fans of the DP World Tour will get a chance to bet on some of their favorite tour regulars at monster prices this week, as long as they consider these players to have a shot at winning, ahead of the best of the best from the PGA Tour.

Check out the latest Genesis Scottish Open Odds to see if any of these DP World Tour longshots catch your eye.

The sportsbooks are having a tough time picking out one clear favorite, with Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler vying for favoritism. Add in the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Rickie Fowler, and Viktor Hovland at +2000 and shorter, and you have a stacked field.

It shouldn't be too hard then to find some bets at +4000 that we see as the best value in the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open this week!

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 guaranteed, just for placing a $5 wager on your favorite golfer pre-event.

What Skill Set is Required to Win the 2023 Scottish Open

This event comes with plenty of challenges, with the weather its clearest defense. Think about those that can handle windy conditions, as there does seem to be some challenging weather heading to North Berwick, Scotland at least on Sunday.

Outside of good play in the wind, let's look at recent winners from a statistical standpoint to see what they have done to win this event.

• SG Tee to Green - This is never surprising, but this golf course at the Rennaisance Club certainly rewards the best players from tee to green. The four winners here since 2019 have all ranked 4th or better in SG Tee to Green the week they won. Strong iron play should be the leading attribute though, with your approaches the most important part of the SG Tee to Green makeup.
• Putting Average - The leader in Putting Average here every year since 2019 has finished inside the top 10 on the week. This shows that a strong putting performance can lead you to success here.

Scottish Open Betting Trends

Here are some betting trends I like the look of for the 2023 Scottish Open.

A reminder that this event was only co-sanctioned by the PGA Tour last year, so 2022 is the only time we have seen a significant PGA Tour presence in the field.

• Each of the four winners at this course were sat 27th or worse after round one, suggesting this is a course you can catch up on. This will likely be down to draw biases potentially correcting themselves at the halfway stage. Xander Schauffele was 69th after round one and 4th after round two last year.
• A strong recent start is important. Bernd Wiesberger and Aaron Rai both won the Scottish Open here at Rennaisance Club after finishing 2nd at the Irish Open the week before. Min Woo Lee had finished T17 at the Irish Open the week before winning, and Xander Schauffele was coming into the event having won the Travelers Championship on his last start.
• Since the Scottish Open was moved to Renaissance Club, it is an event that has only been won by someone who has already won at the DP World Tour or PGA Tour level. None of the four winners were getting their first win at this level.

These trends suggest we are looking for someone with a top 20 in their most recent start. A player who has already won on the DP World Tour or PGA Tour, and a player that can grind away, even after a slow start.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Scottish Open at Rennaisance Club?

The field strength this year and last is far superior to the fields in 2019 and 2020, but this should give you an idea of whether sleepers or value picks can win the 2023 Scottish Open.

2022 - Xander Schauffele (+1800)

2021 - Min Woo Lee (+10000)

2020 - Aaron Rai (+5000)

2019 - Bernd Wiesberger (+4000)

Ultimately, the odds suggest that a sleeper can win the 2023 Scottish Open, but when you look at last year's tournament, it is Xander Schauffele who got the job done in a more elite field.

Kurt Kitayama was a 250-1 shot here last year and pushed Xander Schauffele all the way, and Tom Kim who finished 3rd was also 250-1. Both of these players have gone on to win on the PGA Tour since, so you do need to find players who you think can go on to win in the future, but longshots can prosper here.

Let's look at our favorite bets at +4000 and bigger for the 2023 Scottish Open!

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 Scottish Open

Here are the three picks above +4000 that I believe can win the 2023 Scottish Open.

Justin Rose +4500 (Get a $250 Bonus When Betting Rose on PointsBet)

I completely understand if you are bored of reading Justin Rose's name in this article, mostly in the major championships this season, but if the sportsbooks keep hanging a number on Rose, I am going to take it.

Rose is officially the World No.29, but DataGolf has him closer to the top 20, in 21st, and I think there's an argument he should be even higher.

Barring a poor iron week at the U.S. Open where Rose missed the cut, the Englishman continues to shine with his approach play, and that will be significant here.

Rose was the 36-hole leader at the Betfred British Masters last time out, eventually finishing 4th. He arguably should have won, given he was the betting favorite who held the lead at halfway, but I will focus on the positives rather than the looming negative that he failed to convert the lead.

Rose hit his irons and wedges really well once again, ranking 7th in SG Approach at the British Masters, and that was the fourth time in his last five events he has ranked 13th or better in SG Approach, leading the field once in that time, at Colonial.

In Rose's last three Open Championship starts in Scotland, he has finished 2nd at Carnoustie (2018), 22nd at Troon (2016), and 6th at St. Andrews (2015) which shows an affinity with links golf in Scotland. Add in the fact he won the 2014 Scottish Open, was 2nd at halfway in his title defense a year later, and was placed far higher on the leaderboard going into the weekend here last year (14th after round 1, 20th after round 2), and I am more than happy to take a chance on a formerly elite player in good form.

Rose has nine top-25 finishes to his name in 2023, including a win and four more top-10s.

We know he can play links courses well and is hitting the ball well, so 45-1 seems good value on a player that got back on the British time zone earlier than many in this field.

Aaron Rai +9000 (Get a $250 Bonus When Betting on Rai on PointsBet)

Aaron Rai is enjoying another solid season on the PGA Tour, and it is reflected in his FedEx Cup Ranking, where he sits 56th, and comfortably inside the FedEx St Jude Championship top-70 bubble.

He now returns to a course he won on back in 2020 when he battled hard to beat one of the betting favorites this week, Tommy Fleetwood.

Rai finished 35th on his title defense in 2021, but two missed cuts in 2019 and 2022 are keeping his odds honest this week.

This is a great opportunity though to bet on a player that has finished T24 or better in his last three starts, and in 4 of his last 5 overall.

When 3rd at the Canadian Open and 9th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Rai struck his irons and wedges really well, ranking 4th on both occasions in SG Approach, and he was 2nd in that category when 12th at Colonial 5 starts ago as well.

It is really encouraging to see consistent performances from Rai in stronger fields, and he should take comfort from his current form and a return to a course that he has won on, as recently as 2020.

Alexander Bjork +12500 (Get a $250 Bonus When you Bet on Bjork)

Alexander Bjork is one of those DP World Tour regulars that will look to make the step up here at the Rennaisance Club. The worry for Bjork is that he's played well all season without winning, but will that change in Scotland?

It is a tough sell to suggest Bjork can win in this company, given he struggles to get over the line in regular DP World Tour events, but I am confident he is playing well enough, that he might just eventually stumble over the line, even if not convincingly.

This season, Bjork has finished inside the top 10 seven times, including in his last four-straight events.

During this run of form, Bjork has been incredibly consistent on approach, and with his putter, it has just been a lack of pop off the tee that has held him back from really getting in the mix.

Players can overcome a lack of distance here given the extra run on the fairways, and that might just be the difference for Bjork, who is certainly accurate enough to set up chances, and good enough with the putter to convert.

Bjork's best finish on this course is a 19th, but he's 4/4 for made cuts and has hit two 63s in his four starts here. The Swede sat inside the top 10 going into Sunday in each of the past two visits to this event, and whilst he could not stay inside the number, I think he is playing too well this time around to not stay in the mix if gets there over the weekend. At triple-digits, the most consistent performer on the DP World Tour in recent weeks looks a good option to take a shot on.