2024 ZOZO Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Ghim, Woodland in Japan

2024 ZOZO Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Ghim, Woodland in Japan

After a stretch that saw players travel from Utah to Las Vegas, we now have a different extreme, as a strong field heads to Japan for the 2024 ZOZO Championship.

Collin Morikawa looks to defend the title he won so brilliantly last year, but Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, and local hero, Hideki Matsuyama will all challenge him for the title.

We, however, will be focusing further down the odds board, as we look for the best value picks in the field. Are there any sleepers at +4000 or bigger this week, who rival the leading contenders, or is this one for the favorites?

With a reduced field size of 78, and a strong history of market leaders winning this event, it might be a tough task to cash a winner at 40-1 or bigger, but we are certainly going to try our best, highlighting our favorite sleepers for the week.

Let's look into what a player needs to do here in Japan to contend, and see if there is anyone that matches the profile, outside of the top 10 in the betting.

What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 ZOZO Championship?

With only four years of course form to go by and a lack of strokes-gained data, there is some difficulty in truly identifying the leading statistics required to win at this course. The good news is, that there is enough to go by in the traditional stats provided over the 2023, 2022, and 2019 renewals to understand what leads to success at Narashino Country Club. With no reliable stats from the 2021 renewal, and the 2020 event being held in California, you are reminded to ignore stats from these years.

Greens in Regulation - Hitting greens with regularity is important at this tough layout. This is a course that is claustrophobic off the tee, and while you can get away with straying off the fairway here, you must then go on to find a way to hit these greens. Collin Morikawa hit 73.6% of greens last year, ranking 3rd for Greens in Regulation en route to victory, and Keegan Bradley also ranked 3rd in the same stat, when hitting 77.8% of greens in 2022. Tiger Woods completes the trio of winners ranking 3rd in GIR the week they won, as he hit 76.4% of greens in 2019.

Bentgrass Putting - Looking at the three winners in 2019, 2022, and 2023, both Woods and Morikawa ranked 2nd in Putting Average the week they won here, while Bradley ranked 6th. This clearly points to a big putting week being needed in Japan. Some players who typically struggle to putt well, like Morikawa might find confidence in the fact these are small putting surfaces, so that alongside a player liking Bentgrass putting surfaces, should be considered.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the ZOZO Championship?

Below are the odds of each ZOZO Championship winner at this course, since 2019.

2023 - Collin Morikawa +1100

2022 - Keegan Bradley +4000

2021 - Hideki Matsuyama +1600

2019 - Tiger Woods +3300

Both Tiger Woods (33-1) and Keegan Bradley (40-1) provide hope as we look for a value play this week, but each winner here is a proven commodity, having all won a major before getting a victory here in the ZOZO Championship. Make of that what you will, but it looks like winning experience is vital around this course.

ZOZO Championship Betting Trends, Correlating Courses

With only a few years to go by, this isn't the easiest event in terms of correlations, but let's look to see if there have been any emerging trends so far.

Winning Experience Important - Of the four course winners here at Narashino, all four had won 4+ times as a professional before winning here. Tiger Woods had won 92 events, Hideki Matsuyama had won 15, Keegan Bradley 4, and Collin Morikawa 6. All four had won major championships as well. Woods had won 81 times on the PGA Tour before winning here, Matsuyama had 6 PGA Tour titles under his belt, including a major before winning here, while all four of Bradley's wins had come on the PGA Tour, including his PGA Championship major win. Morikawa was a 5-time PGA Tour winner, who had won two majors, and also went over to Dubai and won a big DP World Tour title as well.

Major Pedigree - If we start whittling down contenders to just major winners, we are unlikely to find much value in this field BUT, there are players north of +4000 who have either won, or at least made a good run at a major in the past, and they are worth considering this week.

Current Form Not Necessarily Essential - Tiger Woods is a bit of a trend-buster, as he's not like any other player, but he had not played for 10 weeks, before winning here at the ZOZO. His four most recent starts before playing here included a missed cut, a withdrawal, and a best finish of 21st. Matsuyama arrived with form figures of 6th, 67th, and 59th in the Fall Swing to warm up for this, while Bradley was at least in decent form when he won, coming in off the back of a 5th at the Shriners. Morikawa's form was ok, having finished 7th in 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship, but he was hardly setting the world alight. Course fit trumps current form here at this course.

Correlating Courses

Augusta National Form Could be a Useful Indicator

Looking at the course winners here, with see Woods, who is a five-time Masters champion, and had just come off his most recent of those in the same year. We then have Hideki who too completed a Masters-ZOZO Championship double in the same year, and then we have Morikawa who has finished 5th, 10th, and 3rd in his last three Masters starts. The only winner here not to show amazing Augusta form is Keegan Bradley, but even he has finished inside the top 23 three times in the year's first major.

Waialae Country Club - Sony Open a Good Comparison?

At first glance, you might not consider the Sony Open in Hawaii and the ZOZO Championship as a positive correlation, but when you consider both Narashino Country Club and Waialae Country Club are both Par 70s, that are both just a shade over 7,000 yards, the crossover makes more sense.

Here's some crossover to confirm the link.

ZOZO Winners

• Hideki Matsuyama has won both the ZOZO Championship and the Sony Open
• Keegan Bradley has won the ZOZO Championship and lost in a playoff at the Sony Open
• Collin Morikawa has won the ZOZO Championship and finished 7th at the Sony Open

Tiger Woods has never played in the Sony Open so we have no record of how he would have fared there

ZOZO Contenders

• Andrew Putnam has finished 2nd in both events
• Brendan Steele finished 2nd in the 2021 ZOZO Championship and has finished 2nd, 4th, and 6th at the Sony Open
• Hayden Buckley finished 5th at the 2022 ZOZO Championship and has finished 2nd at the Sony Open
• Gary Woodland finished 5th at the 2019 ZOZO Championship and has finished 3rd, 6th, and 7th at the Sony Open
• Emiliano Grillo finished 4th at the 2022 ZOZO Championship and has finished 7th at the Sony Open
• Sebastian Munoz finished 4th in the 2021 ZOZO Championship and has finished 10th at the Sony Open
• Eric Cole finished 2nd in the 2023 ZOZO Championship and has finished T13 at the Sony Open
• Mackenzie Highes finished 4th in the 2021 ZOZO Championship and has finished inside the top 25 three times at the Sony Open
• Robby Shelton finished 4th in the 2023 ZOZO Championship and has finished T25 at the Sony Open

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 ZOZO Championship

Here are my picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 ZOZO Championship

Doug Ghim +4000 (FanDuel)

After all that has been written about the four winners here being major winners, and all of whom have won 4+ times, it might be a hard grab picking a player like Doug Ghim, but he fits the profile that I am looking for this week.

Ghim is a player who is on the rise and has found some excellent consistency in the ball-striking department, perfectly timed for this test in Japan. Ghim led the field in SG Approach last week and that came after ranking 10th in the same department in Utah. Prior to this two-event run, he had ranked 19th or better in SG Approach in three of his past four events. Clearly, then, he is hitting his irons well, and that is why he ranks 5th in Greens in Regulation.

Ghim's putter is his clear weakness, but last week he gained strokes on the green for the first time since the Players Championship in March. He was putting on Bentgrass greens last week and it will be the same surface here in Japan, which gives reason for optimism.

He may not have contended in majors yet, but twice Ghim has been in a good position at the Players Championship going into Sunday, and while he has failed to get over the line, it does show he has the ability to mix it with the best players.

He finished 66th here on his only start, but he wasn't in the form he's in now, which has seen him make six straight cuts, and finish runner-up at last week's event.

Ghim shot 64-65 over the weekend in Vegas and lost by a single stroke to JT Poston, the closest he's ever come to victory on the PGA Tour. I am hoping this is the confidence boost he needs to take advantage of a course that his skillset dictates could be a good one for last week's runner-up.

Gary Woodland +7500 (FanDuel)

I was close to picking Gary Woodland last week but ultimately decided against it, so I am glad I wasn't punished. What we did see though is a continuation of good form, from a player who can boast a very similar profile to a former winner here, Keegan Bradley.

With four PGA Tour wins to his name, including a major at the 2019 U.S. Open, Woodland has an almost identical profile to Bradley, he's just a bit further on in his career.

Woodland, however, ticks a few important boxes for me, one being that major pedigree, the second being his four wins, and the last being good form, not just at this course, but in Asia in general. Woodland finished 5th here on his one and only start at the course in 2019, and he was better placed after the first three rounds. Woodland was the first round leader in 2019 and was still 2nd and 3rd after rounds two and three respectively. He faded on Sunday, but Woodland loves this part of this world, highlighted not only by his 5th here, but his two runner-up finishes in the CJ Cup (South Korea), and the CIMB Classic (Malaysia). He also posted 3rd and 5th place finishes in the CIMB Classic to confirm his good record in Asia.

In Woodland, we are looking at a player who has ranked 2nd, 16th, 2nd, and 5th in his last four made cuts in terms of SG Approach, and also a player who led the field Tee to Green two starts ago. It is clear then, after a difficult year, that Woodland has found his ball striking again, and he can put that to good use here, at a course he enjoyed on his first visit.

Like Ghim, Woodland is another who found his putting stroke last week in Vegas, and if can carry that on this week, he can win his first title since winning the U.S. Open five years ago. Given his experiences off the course over the past couple of years, which he admits left him worried for his life, Woodland likely has a different perspective these days, and that might just help him in contention if he finds himself in that position come Sunday.

Andrew Putnam +8000 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Andrew Putnam has been hitting his irons and wedges well for a while now, dating back to the Scottish Open in the Summer, and I think this could be the course where he takes advantage.

No one has hit greens at a higher rate than Putnam over the past three months, who has hit 80.6% of greens in his past 18 rounds, with Patrick Fishburn and Doug Ghim two that rival him, while playing more rounds than the American.

I am happy to upgrade his 16th-place finish last week on the basis that he was on the wrong side of a draw-bias last week in Vegas, where it was almost 4 strokes easier, to start early on Thursday and late on Friday, and his final round 64 confirms his good form.

His 16th last week at the Shriners, backs up a 25th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, a fine effort in a DP World Tour event, where he wouldn't necessarily be expected to succeed.

Where we should expect Putnam to excel is on a short par 70, which he has done throughout his career. His second win on the Korn Ferry Tour came on one, in the 2017 Panama Championship, and he's carried this success over to the PGA Tour. Putnam has finished 2nd and 4th at the Sony Open, a course we have flagged as a possible correlation, and he's also finished 2nd and 5th at the St Jude Classic, a course that also features Zoysia fairways. 3rd at Colonial continues this trend of form on Par 70s, and he's hitting the ball well enough to contend here for a second time.

This would be a career higlight for Putnam, who has only won the Barracuda Championship since his promotion to the PGA Tour, but the setting is right, and the timing of his improved ball striking suggests he can go well again for a second time in Japan.

A 4th place finish in China at the WGC HSBC Champions event and a 20th at the CJ Cup in Korea also show wider Asian form, and I am happy to chance Putnam finding his best finish of the year, after a sustained run of decent form.

Kensei Hirata +15000 (FanDuel)

Now for a left-field pick, and if you are looking to back one of the Japan Tour regulars, 23-year-old, Kensei Hirata looks like the pick of the bunch.

Hirata is coming off a three-win month in September, which took him to six wins overall in his young career. This puts him in the company of players like Ryo Ishikawa, and more noticeably, Hideki Matsuyama. Sure, playing in Japan and Korea is completely different from playing in a PGA Tour event, but he proved he could do that as well 12 months ago.

Hirata finished 6th in this event last year, climbing the leaderboard every day after a slow start, and now he knows what to expect and arrives in great form, he may well start faster, and as such have a better chance to contend.

When he played here last year, Hirata's incoming form read T-33-T26-T23-T39-T8, this time around, things look far better. He has won three times in his last seven starts, including a 5th three starts ago, where he closed with a 63. The past two weeks haven't been as hot, but the youngster will have no doubt had half an eye on this event all year, in a season where he has gone from a two-time winner to a six-time winner in the blink of an eye!

A win might be too much of an ask for him here, but you should look at his top 10 and top 20 odds, while I will take a shot on a young Japanese star, who could break through at this level at any time.