Valero Texas Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Spieth, Riley for a Hot Start in Texas

Valero Texas Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back These Four for a Hot Start in Texas

The Valero Texas Open is the final event before the 2024 US Masters, and we are looking for a player to bolster our sportsbook accounts before the first major of the year, by posting a first round lead!

Sure, plenty of attention will be on the likes of Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Jordan Spieth, and Hideki Matsuyama ahead of next week, but who will capture the imagination of viewers in round 1 of this week's event?

A fast start has been essential here over the years, with the last three winners of this event all sitting 4th or better after round 1, and Corey Conners was also 17th at the end of play Thursday, back in 2019.

There are some great odds available in the Valero Texas Open First Round Leader market this week, thanks to Rory Mcilroy and Ludvig Aberg being in the field, and we are hoping to exploit that here.

Here is how we going about finding a First Round Leader at the Texas Open this week.

Valero Texas Open First Round Leader Strategy

Here are all the first round leaders at the Valero Texas Open since 2018. Here you will get a sense of whether morning or afternoon starters have prospered in the past, and what sort of score you need to shoot to lead at the end of play on Thursday.

• 2023 - Corey Conners (1:20 pm #1 Tee) - 64
• 2022 - Russell Knox (7:52 am #1 Tee) - 65
• 2021 - Camilo Villegas (1:59 pm #10 Tee) - 64
• 2019 - Si Woo Kim (8:10 am #10 Tee) - 66
• 2018 - Grayson Murray (7:50 am #1 Tee) - 67

Over the past five renewals of the Valero Texas Open, there has always been an outright leader after round 1, which is a welcome change from the multitude of co-leaders you generally see. Over the past three years, scoring has seemingly gotten easier, and it appears a 64 is required to feel comfortable on day 1.

A score of 66 has been good for 2nd place on day one in each of the past three years and would have been good enough to lead in both 2019 and 2018, so that score should put you in the mix again.

In terms of tee time, an early starter has led in three of the past five years, but the two lowest rounds in this span have been shot by Corey Conners and Camilo Villegas, who both teed off in the afternoon.

It also doesn't seem to matter which tee you start from, so that is not a factor to consider.

With all this in mind, I think it simply comes down to weather conditions and which side of the draw is going to get the favorable weather on Thursday.

Valero Texas Open Weather Forecast

Below is the weather forecast for the Valero Texas Open this week:

On Thursday, it looks as though we are in for some strong gusts at TPC San Antonio, around 10 or 11 am, so those starting at that time, and perhaps finishing their early round might encounter some strong winds, but the wind speed is more consistent in the afternoon.

With this in mind, I would consider targeting the earliest starters and the afternoon starters, as opposed to those starting their rounds late morning. I don't think there should be too many issues throughout the day though, so if you do like a player who pegs it up later in the AM, you should be ok.

Who in this Field Started Fast on Tour Last Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average in the 2022/23 PGA Tour season.)

• Adam Scott (2nd Overall in 2022/23 - Scoring Average 68.50 - Low Opening Round - 62 (Travelers Championship)
• Ludvig Aberg (3rd overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.54) – Low Opening Round – 65 (Rocket Mortgage Classic)
• C.T. Pan (6th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.89) – Low Opening Round – 66 (Bermuda Championship)
• Max Homa (8th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.04) – Low Opening Round – 64 (Genesis Invitational)
• Andrew Novak (8th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.04) – Low Opening Round – 64 (Wyndham Championship)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1?

In more recent years, a 64 has been required to lead after round 1 here, but a 67 has also led here after day 1, and the winds will dictate the leading score on day one.

65.2 has been the average score shot by a first round leader here since 2018, and we can see if it going a stroke lower than that. Aim for players who can go as low as 64, with the expectation that a 65 or 66 will also put you in the mix.

The Favorites in the Valero Texas Open First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Valero Texas Open.

• Rory McIlroy (+2200)
• Ludvig Aberg (+2800)
• Corey Conners (+4000)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+4000)
• Jordan Spieth (+4000)
• Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000)
• Max Homa (+4000)

2024 Valero Texas Open First Round Leader Picks

Here are my First Round Leader selections for the 2024 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio.

Jordan Spieth +4000 (bet365)

I am going to buy into the volatile nature of Jordan Spieth's game right now and take a shot that he leads after round 1, at a course he has won and finished 2nd at in the past.

On 3 of his 7 starts here, Spieth has been inside the top 6 after round 1, and he's shot 68 or better in 6 of his last 12 rounds at TPC San Antonio.

His irons have been awful in his past two starts at the Players and the Valspar, but a welcome return to Texas might have come just in time for Augusta next week. Spieth has been within two shots of the first round lead 41 times in his career, 9 of those instances came in Texas. He has converted three of those into first round leads, twice at Colonial and once at the Byron Nelson, and he's clearly comfortable playing closer to home.

Spieth went four years without a win between 2017 and 2021, and it's been almost two years since his last at the RBC Heritage, so we are due another week of magic for the three-time major winner, with a home game just what the doctor ordered.

I can't bet him outright, as he's too up and down for me right now, but that plays in this first round leader market, especially as he ranks 8th in Birdie or Better Percentage and 34th in Round 1 Scoring Average this season.

Take a shot on Spieth at home. He starts his week at 1:19 pm on Thursday.

Davis Riley +8000 (bet365)

Davis Riley has won at this course, albeit when on the Korn Ferry Tour, and while he has struggled in his two starts in this event, I am hoping his return to form last week is enough to spark a fast start.

Riley twice led after round 1 on the Korn Ferry Tour, and he's added another three first round leads on the PGA Tour to his resumé, since 2022. Those first round leads came at the Memorial (twice) and the Sanderson Farms, but he's also been within one of the opening-day lead on two separate occasions when playing in Texas. One back last week at the Houston Open, Riley was also in the same position at Colonial in 2022, so he likes playing in the Lone Star State.

Sure, he's yet to impress in this event, but after returning to his old coach, he immediately reaped the rewards, ranking 4th in SG Approach and 5th in SG Tee to Green last week in Houston, and his 6 birdies in round 1 last week and 7 on Sunday (best of the day) give plenty of hope for Thursday.

Riley starts his week at 8:15 am on Thursday.

Charley Hoffman +9000 (FanDuel)

Death, Taxes, and Charley Hoffman playing well at the Valero Texas Open. Somewhere, that is printed on a t-shirt, and for a man who is famous for starting so fast (namely at Augusta), we should take a second look here.

Hoffman had a chance to return to the winners' circle this year, eventually losing out to Nick Taylor at the Phoenix Open, but he now has his eyes set on another big performance at this event.

In 13 starts at this course, Hoffman has only missed the cut once, and he's recorded a win, three 2nds, and a 3rd at this golf course, with four more top 13 finishes thrown in for good measure.

As for his round 1 performances here, Hoffman has been within 2 of the first round lead on four occasions, including an outright lead in 2016 when he opened with a 67. A year later he opened with a 66 to sit 3rd, and that was a position he had already been in on two other occasions, by the end of play on Thursday at this course.

Four times in total then he's been within two of the lead here, and it doesn't seem to matter what form is in, he can pull it out of the bag here.

Last year, Hoffman finished T14 at the Phoenix Open, missed four cuts, and then finished T22 here. I am hoping he can do the same this week, while in a similar run of form, and do so off the back of a fast start.

Hoffman has also led after round 1 on two separate occasions at the Houston Open, and on 15 occasions in total, he's been within two of the lead in the Lone Star State. Backing him here makes plenty of sense.

Hoffman kicks off his week at 7:42 am on Thursday.

Alejandro Tosti +12500 (bet365)

Alejandro Tosti has played two events in Texas, the Veritex Bank Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour, and the Houston Open on the PGA Tour, finishing 10th and 2nd respectively.

At the Veritex, Tosti opened with a round of 63 to sit one back of the first round lead, and last week he opened with a 66 to sit two back of the leader at the Houston Open, so he clearly likes playing in Texas, based on a small sample size.

Now, to his record in Round 1 this season. Tosti is averaging 68.50 in Round 1, and we can break down those 2024 efforts in more detail here. An opening 66 at the Sony Open left him in 7th place, and he shot the same score the following week at the Amex, to sit inside the top 25. The very same score saw him sit in 4th at Torrey Pines by the end of play Thursday, and that same score left him in 6th place last week.

Tosti carded 22 birdies last week, tied for the most with Scottie Scheffler at the Houston Open, and if he can keep that form up this week, he might just give us the first-day lead we are looking for.

The Argentine has forced me to take five this week, as I didn't want to pass up on him at 125-1, but still feel the need to take two from the afternoon wave. I think that's acceptable, with four picks at 80-1 and bigger.

Alejandro Tosti kicks off his Valero Texas Open at 9:21 am.

Kevin Streelman +16000 (bet365)

Kevin Streelman obviously enjoys a lay-in these days, because when he has a later tee time in Round 1, he averages 68.00 (4 starts). In his three rounds starting early, Streelman averages 71.33, so clearly we should be looking at him if he's starting later in the day.

Streelman recently shot an opening round 65 to lead after round 1 in Puerto Rico, starting at 11:30 am. Two starts later, Streelman kicked off the Valspar Championship with a 64, again leading after round 1, and that was starting at 1:07 pm.

Whether he can really lead after round 1 three times in four starts remains to be seen, but at 160-1, I am keen to find out, based on a decent record here.

Streelman has made eight starts here, making all eight cuts in the process and finishing no worse than 53rd, so he clearly likes the test at TPC San Antonio. His best finish was a 6th when he closed with a 64 in 2019, and while has never really been a fast starter here, the law of averages suggests he will go low here at some point. I am happy on that finally happening here this week, as he comes in with first round leading efforts in 2 of his last 3 starts.