Charles Schwab Challenge Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Harman, Rose in Texas

Charles Schwab Challenge Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Harman, Rose in Texas

Xander Schauffele held off a charging Bryson DeChambeau to win the PGA Championship and served us with a timely reminder that patience is necessary in golf.

Sure he's an 8-time PGA Tour winner and the second-best player in the world, and more often than not, we run out of patience with those less talented, but winning is hard and we should remember that before writing people off.

I say this as someone who is about to give you four picks at +4000 and bigger to win the Charles Schwab Challenge, and while the majority are players who have won recently and won big in some circumstances, we are generally looking at players who have a glaring weakness in their game, or a closing problem. That is why they are available at 40-1 and bigger.

This week, we return to the Charles Schwab Challenge, which follows the PGA Championship for the fifth time in six years, with the 2020 COVID season the exception.

It is always interesting to see how a player reacts to playing in a major the week before, and we might just have a trend for you that might catch the eye, as it relates to performances at both the PGA and here at Colonial Country Club.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge, check out the new DraftKings Sportsbook promotion, where new users can claim an epic bonus betting on golf this week. With the DraftKings promo code, you can claim a $1500 No Sweat First Bet on the golf this week. This means you can back your selections with more confidence at Colonial this week.

What Skill Set is Required to Win the Charles Schwab Challenge?

This is a classical course that requires shot shaping, creativity, a lot of thought, and an immaculate approach game. The winning score has been -8 and -9 in the past two years, with both renewals going to a playoff, so this can be a tough test, especially a week after a major.

SG Approach: There are different ways to get over the line here, but every winner in the last five years has ranked inside the top 12 in SG Approach. Some people set that up with strong off-the-tee displays, some rely heavily on the irons and wedges to carry them. Either way, your approaches to the greens here are key.

Bentgrass Putting: This course was renovated in 2023 and has been lengthened by almost 80 yards, but the putting surfaces remain the same, Bentgrass. Making more than your fair share of putts will be key here, with each of the last five winners ranking 8th or better in SG Putting the week they won.

Course Experience: Every winner at Colonial over the last 12 years had played the event at least 2 times before winning here. All 12 had made at least one cut here, so while you might not need to have been in contention here in the past, experience and experience of making the cut at least once seems to be key.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Charles Schwab Challenge?

Let's look at the last 10 winners of this event, to see if there is any reason for encouragement as we look for a winner at +4000 and bigger.

2023 - Emiliano Grill (+7000)

2022 - Sam Burns (+3000)

2021 - Jason Kokrak (+5000)

2020 - Daniel Berger (+7000)

2019 - Kevin Na (+7000)

2018 - Justin Rose (+2000)

2017 - Kevin Kisner (+3300)

2016 -Jordan Spieth (+700)

2015 - Chris Kirk (+3500)

2014 - Adam Scott (+1800)

It has been a bit of a mixed bag here over the years, but four of the last five winners have won when starting the week +4000 or bigger. This is an encouraging sign, as we look to pick out a group of sleepers ahead of the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Trends

Colonial Country Club has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour for years, which means we have plenty of renewals to go by as we look to identify any important betting trends ahead of this week's tournament.

Experience Counts - 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 30 or older the week they won at Colonial, suggesting the more tour-hardened pro will win here. Sam Burns (25), Daniel Berger (27), and Jordan Spieth (23) were the youngest winners since 2012.

Winning Form Integral - 10 of the last 12 winners had won 3+ times as a professional before winning here. Book Weekley and Sam Burns were the top exceptions.

Top 10s at the Course a Clear Indicator - 8 of the last 12 winners here had already posted a top 10 at the course. Adam Scott (64th), Justin Rose (13th), Daniel Berger (53rd), and Sam Burns (31st) all won here despite not posting a previous top 10. That shows you the level of player you might be looking for to buck this trend.

Course Correlation - Look to TPC Deere Run For Clues

The John Deere Classic has been the clearest form line over the years here at Colonial. It is not a perfect link, as the fields are generally weaker at TPC Deere Run, but it's still a great indicator.

David Toms, Kenny Perry, Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, and Jordan Spieth have all won both tournaments.

Sean O'Hair has won at TPC Deere Run and was a runner-up here, while Brandt Snedeker and Time Clark finished 2nd in both events.

Emiliano Grillo won here 12 months ago and had previously finished 2nd at TPC Deere Run, the latest in a strong form line. The man Grillo beat in a playoff last year, Adam Schenk has also finished 4th and 6th at the John Deere Classic.

Michael Kim finished 6th here last year and he's also a former winner of the John Deere Classic. Given he's had limited success over the years, he along with Schenk added further validity to this link.

Sleeper and Value Picks for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge

Here are my four selections for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge.

Brian Harman +4000 (DraftKings)

Brian Harman finished T26 last week at the PGA Championship, despite a slow start, and that is highly encouraging.

Of the last five renewals of the Charles Schwab Challenge, four were played the week after the PGA Championship. The four winners here who played the week after winning had either missed the cut (Grillo and Na) or finished no better than 20th at the second major of the year. In short, we want a player who had endured little stress over the weekend, and Harman fits that bill, given he played incredibly well over the weekend, without the stress of trying to win.

If you are looking for more encouraging form though, you don't have to go far back, for a T12 finish at the Heritage, a T2 finish at The Players, and another T12 at Bay Hill. This course plays to Harman's strengths, and he's enjoyed some success here in the past.

On his second start, Harman finished 30th, but was 5th going into the final round and a year later he finished 10th, sitting 4th after round 2 and 6th after round 3. Two more top 8 finishes have followed since, and the reigning Open Champion can get another win this week in Texas.

Harman is a former John Deere Classic winner too if you like that link, and I like the fact he finished T2 at the Travelers Championship a week after finishing T43 at the U.S. Open in 2023.

After ranking 10th in SG Approach last week, I am once again encouraged by Harman's play, going into a winnable tournament.

Sepp Straka +5000 (DraftKings)

Sepp Straka missed the cut last week, but as we have discovered, that is not such a bad thing coming into this event. Even better is that he missed the cut while hitting his irons nicely, and that alone gives me the confidence I need to take Straka this week.

Add in the fact that the Austrian was inside the top 16 after round 1 in his two missed cuts here, before posting a top 30 finish last year, and it looks as though Straka is comfortable enough around Colonial, despite what his record says.

Before his missed cut last week, Straka was in fine form, finishing T16 at Augusta, T5 at the Heritage, T11 at the Zurich, and T8 at Quail Hollow. I won't let a poor week on and around the greens at Valhalla put me off him here.

Straka, like Harman, is another player who has won at TPC Deere Run, and that can only be a positive based on the leaderboard crossover.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000 (bet365)

I love this +4000 to +6000 range this week, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout is a player I have changed course on completely.

For years I felt he was a bit overrated, largely based on performances in his homeland, but I am now really encouraged by his PGA Tour efforts this season. This year, he has already finished T2 at the American Express. Seven more top 25s have followed, including his T3 finish on the DP World Tour, and there is every chance he picks up his first win stateside this week.

Bezuidenhout has finished T2 at the John Deere Classic in the past, which is a great sign, and there is plenty of encouragement in his course form as well.

The South African missed the cut on debut here but shot rounds of 69 and 70, which was far from a disgrace. Since then, he has finished 15th and 21st here in the past two seasons, and considering his form this season, this could be his best finish yet.

33rd in SG Approach and 11th in SG Putting, Bez is ranking well in the important statistics this season and I hope he can keep that up this week, despite missing the cut at Valhalla last week.

Justin Rose +6000 (DraftKings)

Unlike Harman, Justin Rose did find himself in the thick of things at this past weekend's PGA Championship, but he was never going to win, so I am not going to worry about the mental strain.

Rose is a former winner of this event, albeit when his standing in the world of golf was a lot higher, as he was the World No.5 at the time. 3rd, 20th, and 12th place finishes here since the latter coming just 12 months ago is incredibly encouraging and I think he can win.

That 12th came after finishing 9th at the 2023 PGA Championship, and he was in a similar position then as well, so I am not too concerned about him being in the mix somewhat last week.

Rose had his best iron week of the season here 12 months ago and actually, that was his best iron play since the 2021 BMW Championship. A better week with the putter would have seen him contend 12 months ago and he putted brilliantly last week at Valhalla which gives reason for encouragement.

We know Rose is in the twilight years of his PGA Tour career, but there still seems to be life in the wily veteran yet, and this is the perfect course for that type of player.