U.S. Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Schauffele, Hadwin for a Quick Start

U.S. Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Schauffele, Hadwin for a Quick Start

The U.S. Open is upon us and we have seen over the past five years how important a fast start can be in this event.

While no First Round Leader has gone on to win the U.S. Open since Martin Kaymer won in wire-to-wire fashion here a decade ago, it is still important to be in the mix from the beginning. Each of the last five U.S. Open winners has been inside the top 14 after round 1, with four of the five inside the top 8.

With this in mind, every golfer will be looking to keep pace with the leaders in round 1, and if the 2014 renewal here is anything to go by, you cannot afford to play catch up over the weekend.

It is very difficult to predict the first round leader of any event, let alone at a major on a course like Pinehurst No.2, but are there any clues we can pick up from previous U.S. Opens, that might help us pick one out this week?

Let's look at the last five years of this event, plus the 2014 renewal here at Pinehurst to see if anything can help us in our quest to pick out the U.S. Open first round leader in 2024.

2024 U.S. Open First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

First, let's look at the most recent U.S. Open renewals and see who was leading after round 1, what time they went out, and what sort of score they had to shoot. There are plenty of variables, including the course rotation, weather, and course conditions to consider here, with the U.S. Open consistently changing course.

• 2023 – Rickie Fowler (8:02 am), Xander Schauffele (8:24 am) - 62
• 2022 - Adam Hadwin (2:09 pm) - 66
• 2021 - Russell Henley (7:18 am), Louis Oosthuizen (1:47 pm) - 67
• 2020 - Justin Thomas (8:07 am) - 65
• 2019 - Justin Rose (2:09 pm) - 65

More often than not, one player manages to separate themselves from the pack, in the opening round of the U.S. Open. Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele both shot matching 62s in what was a very strange opening round for a U.S. Open, while Russell Henley and Louis Oosthuizen couldn't be separated either in 2021.

Based on the above, a target score of 65 seems reasonable, especially when you consider that Martin Kaymer shot that exact score in round 1 of the 2014 U.S. Open, here at Pinehurst No.2.

Kaymer teed off at 1:47 pm on the Thursday of the 2014 U.S. Open, and he started on the 1st tee.

Brendan De Jonge (1:14 pm #10 tee) and Fran Quinn (2:31 pm #10 tee) were the closest challengers from the afternoon wave back in 2014, and it is interesting to note they started on the opposite side of the course to Kaymer. Both players shot a 68, to sit three back of Kaymer going into Friday.

Graeme McDowell (7:40 am #1 tee) and Kevin Na (7:18 am #10 tee) were the two to set the target in the morning wave back in 2014, both also shooting 68, a score only Kaymer could eclipse. Na, De Jonge, and Quinn also started on #10, but with Kaymer holding the outright lead when teeing off from the 1st tee, and McDowell also laying chase from the same position, there doesn't seem to be too much bias when it comes to which tee you start from.

Whether you started in the morning or the afternoon didn't seem to matter in 2014, and it hasn't been a factor in general over the past five years, with afternoon starters having plenty of success as well. Tee time bias will come down to the weather report, which we will look at shortly.

U.S. Open First Round Leader Trends

Former Major First Round Lead a Pointer: Both Rickie Fowler and Russell Henley had already held a first round lead at a U.S. Open before leading again in 2024 and 2021 respectively, which is a nice form line. Justin Rose had held the first round lead at the Masters three times in his career before leading the 2019 U.S. Open after round 1. This shows we see familiar faces leading on Thursday of a major.

Former First Round Lead Essential: Every player to lead or co-lead the U.S. Open after round 1 since 2019, had already held a first round lead on the PGA Tour or WGC event in the past. You will preferably look for players who are used to starting fast out of the gates.

Winners Lead After Round 1 of the U.S. Open: Every player that has led after round 1 of the U.S. Open over the past five years, had already won an event on the PGA Tour. Having the winning experience and that elite mentality looks to play a big part in whether you are comfortable on day one of the U.S. Open.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 U.S. Open

The weather looks fairly calm all day, with the winds only slightly picking up in the afternoon. The morning starters will get less cloud cover and the best conditions look to be the late morning, but there is little draw bias to garner from this weather report.

Who in this Field Has Started Fastest on Tour This Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

• Scottie Scheffler (1st overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 67.77) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Houston Open)
• Collin Morikawa (2nd overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.08) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Sentry, Heritage)
• Xander Schauffele (2nd overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.08) - Low Opening Round - 62 (PGA)
• Alex Noren (4th overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.29) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Amex)
• Patrick Cantlay (6th overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.75) - Low Opening Round - 64 (Amex, Pebble Beach, Genesis)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1?

It is hard to be too bullish on an opening-day score, when the course changes each year, but a 65 looks a good target. It has been the leading round 1 score in two of the last five U.S. Open's and it was the score Kaymer got to in 2014. He was three clear with that score though, so there is every chance a 66 or 67 puts you in the mix as well.

The Favorites in the 2024 U.S. Open First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 U.S. Open.

• Scottie Scheffler +1200
• Rory McIlroy +2200
• Xander Schauffele +2200
• Collin Morikawa +2800
• Viktor Hovland +3000
• Bryson DeChambeau +3300

2024 U.S. Open First Round Leader Picks

Without further ado, here are my five picks in the 2024 U.S. Open First Round Leader market this week.

Xander Schauffele +2200 (DraftKings)

This one shouldn't need too much explaining, but I will give you the method behind picking one of the favorites in this market nonetheless.

I bet on Xander to lead the U.S. Open after round 1 a year ago and had to settle for a dead-heat payout, as Rickie Fowler matched his opening 62! This time around I am looking for vengeance, and he's the man to pick again.

Xander led after round 1 of both the Wells Fargo Championship and the PGA Championship, and he got off to another quick start at the Memorial last week, sitting 3rd at the end of play Thursday. Not only has Xander started fast in each of his last three starts, but he's also a perennially quick starter in this event as well.

In his seven U.S. Open starts Xander has been, 2nd, 13th, 2nd, 8th, 5th, 26th, and 1st after his opening round in the event. Just twice has he found himself off the first page of the leaderboard, and on three occasions he's been inside the top 2 going into Friday.

This is an obscene record that sure you would bet against him keeping up, but given the run of form he's in and his new-found belief since winning his first major title, Schauffele should be as bullish as ever before Thursday's opening round.

Xander has held five first round leads in his career, one has come at the Donald Ross-designed East Lake, two have come in majors, and one has come at the PLAYERS Championship, so he is a big-game hunter, who is comfortable starting the game's biggest events in quick fashion.

Schauffele kicks off the week with the two best players in the world other than himself, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, and this should bode well for him. Xander has played with Rory 35 times in his career so it will be a comfortable pairing for him, and while he's typically not played that well when pegging it up with Scheffler, he did shoot a 63 at East Lake in his company.

Xander trails just behind Scheffler in Round 1 scoring average this season but has held four first round leads on the PGA Tour since the last time Scheffler led on Thursday (Charles Schwab 2022). He does prefer an early start, but the way he's playing, I am confident Schauffele can shoot a low one no matter the time of day.

This trio will tee off at 1:14 pm (ET) from the 1st tee.

Russell Henley +7000 (bet365)

Russell Henley is a first round leader legend, holding 9 first round leads in his career, and being within two of the opening-day lead 33 times in total. He knows how to start quickly on Thursday, and does so often.

Interestingly of his 9 first round leads, he's held two at the U.S. Open, two at the Northern Trust, and two at the Wyndham Championship. Simply put, he turns up in the same events, and it's encouraging that he's done so twice in this event before.

Henley has been inside the top 10 in two of his last four starts, so he's been getting off to quick starts of late as well, which is another huge bonus.

He has played four rounds with one of this week's playing partners, Patrick Cantlay, and while he's never beaten him head-to-head, he has impressed in the last two meetings, shooting 68 and 67. Matt Kuchar is a familiar face as well, and the pair have both beaten each other 5 times when paired together.

Henley will tee off with Cantlay and Kuchar at 7:40 am on Thursday morning, and the trio will start their week on the 10th tee.

Adam Hadwin +10000 (BetMGM)

Adam Hadwin tees off early on Thursday and on the face of it, has a comfortable pairing with both Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler.

Hadwin played with Rickie in the final round of the Rocket Mortgage last year, which the latter won, but it was Hadwin who came out on top on the day, shooting a 67 to Fowler's 68. That was the third time the Canadian beat him head-to-head in the five times they were paired together.

Hadwin has also got the better of Mickelson four times in the six times they have been paired together, so there are no worries about his playing partners this week.

There are also no worries about Adam Hadwin's current form, as he led the field after round 1 of the Memorial last week, and had been inside the top 20 after round 1 of three of his past five starts before that.

Hadwin led this event after round 1 in 2022 and was 11th after round 1 in 2021 as well, so he's comfortable with starting fast in the U.S. Open.

The Canadian also started fast in the 2018 Masters, so on three occasions he's started major championships in confident fashion, and I think he can do the same again this week. Last week's 3rd place finish was his fourth top 10 as an individual in 2024, so he's in fine form and can start the week off in a similar fashion here.

Hadwin might have liked to switch tee times with Schauffele, as he's preferred later starts this year, but again, in this event, I am not too worried about the tee time split.

Adam Hadwin will tee off with Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson at 7:51 am from the 1st tee.

Ryan Fox +10000 (BetMGM)

Ryan Fox could relish a test like this, as he has creativity in abundance, and has shown that in the Open Championship, and in links events like the Dunhill Links and the Scottish Open on the DP World Tour.

Strong performances in the Open Championship, the Masters, and the Players Championship show a taste for the biggest events, as does his 23rd in the PGA Championship last year at the Donald Ross-designed Oak Hill.

Top 10 finishes at the Myrtle Beach Classic and the Canadian Open show good form overall in recent weeks, and given he has made his last five major cuts, he is finally getting comfortable in these bigger events. The next step is to put himself in contention in one, and a fast start is his best path to doing so.

I would probably have preferred some familiar faces in his group, but he's instead playing with Daniel Berger and David Puig for the first time. He will tee off at 8:12 am from the 10th tee on Thursday.

Martin Kaymer +15000 (FanDuel)

Sure, you could look at this pick as me hoping for lightning to strike twice, but there's actually a bit more substance to it.

Yes, Kaymer led here after round 1 of the U.S. Open here in 2014, and he went on to be the wire-to-wire victor, but it's not just that.

The German led after round 1 of LIV Houston last week, and two starts before that in Singapore he also sat T2 at the end of the opening round, shooting a 66, so he's clearly finding form in recent starts. Add in a solid round of 68 to kick off the PGA Championship on his last major start, and things are looking good for Kaymer - at least in the opening round of recent events.

No one knows better than Kaymer when it comes to steering it around Pinehurst No.2, and I think he can show that in Round 1 given his current run of form.

Kaymer will start his tournament alongside Keegan Bradley and Shane Lowry, as the trio tee off at 1:47 pm from the 1st tee.

This should be a comfortable pairing for Kaymer, who played his first two rounds with Bradley here in 2014 when shooting a pair of 65s. While he's struggled when paired with Bradley outside of those rounds, those fond memories could come into play. Kaymer has also played 9 rounds alongside Lowry, with the pair winning four of those rounds each.