FedEx St Jude Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Conners, Thomas for Fast Starts

FedEx St Jude Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Thomas, Straka for Fast Starts

The FedEx St Jude Championship is the first event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and the players return a the familiar course, TPC Southwind.

Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy are the frontrunners in the outright market, but will they get off to a fast start and land a first-round lead?

With these players in the field, there is clearly going to be some value further down the FedEx St Jude First Round Leader market, but who could come through the pack and lead at the end of play on Thursday?

Let's look into what makes a strong first round leader candidate this week at the FedEx St Jude Championship.

2024 FedEx St Jude Championship First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

Let's look at the last five events to be held at this course, and which players left after round 1 of the tournament each year. The one notable difference this year is that there are just 70 players in the field, all of which will tee off the 1st tee.

There is still however a clear morning and afternoon wave, so that should be considered when analyzing the recent first round leaders here.

2023 - Jordan Spieth (10:51 am 1st tee) - 63

2022 - Si Woo Kim (7:48 am, 1st tee) and JJ Spaun (8:21 am , 1st tee) - 62

2021 - Harris English (10:43 am, 1st tee) - 62

2020 - Brooks Koepka (12:50 pm, 1st tee) - 62

2019 - Jon Rahm (11:53 am, 10th tee) - 62

Only once in the last five years has 63 been good enough to hold the first round lead. 62 is generally required, and while everyone will be off the 1st this week, it's good to see that over the years that’s been the better of the course to start on anyway.

Weather permitting, we should be looking at 62 as the target again.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 FedEx St Jude Championship

Earliest starters may have to deal with slightly stronger gusts, but generally speaking, the weather is fairly consistent throughout the day, and there doesn't look to be a wave advantage. Instead, it is worth slightly favoring the morning based on recent history, rather than the weather.

Who in This Field Has Started Fastest on the PGA Tour This Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

• Scottie Scheffler (1st Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 67.88 - Low Opening Round - 65 - (Houston Open and Travelers Championship)
• Xander Schauffele (2nd Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 67.94) - Low Opening Round - 62 (PGA Championship)
• Collin Morikawa (3rd Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.28) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Sentry, Heritage, Scottish Open)
• Alex Noren (4th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.47 - Low Opening Round - 62 (American Express)
• Patrick Cantlay (5th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.73 - Low Opening Round - 64 (American Express, Pebble Beach, Genesis Invitational)

Fastest Starters on the PGA Tour Over The Last 8 Weeks

Here are the five players in the field this week, that have found themselves making the fastest starts in recent weeks, based on their 8-week scoring average.

1. Justin Thomas

• Average Score - 66.00
• Lowest Round 1 Score Last 8 Weeks - 62 (Scottish Open, 1st Round Leader)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 26th, 1st, 3rd

2. Mackenzie Hughes

• Average Score - 66.20
• Lowest Round 1 Score Last 8 Weeks - 64 (I3M Open)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 6th, 23rd, 4th, 2nd, 27th

3. Taylor Pendrith

• Average Score - 66.75
• Lowest Round 1 Score Last 8 Weeks - 65 (Travelers)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 6th, 50th, 11th, 6th

4. Patrick Rodgers

• Average Score - 67.00
• Lowest Round 1 Score Last 8 Weeks - 65 (3M Open)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 6th 35th, 27th, 50th, 3rd, 42nd

4. Seamus Power

• Average Score - 67.00
• Lowest Round 1 Score Last 8 Weeks - 64 (John Deere)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 18th, 8th, 77th, 46th, 18th

4. Xander Schauffele

• Average Score - 67.00
• Lowest Score - 65 (Travlers, Olympics)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 6th, 77th, 4th, 2nd

What Score Is Required to Lead After Round 1 of the St Jude Championship?

62 has been needed to lead after day one, in four of the past five renewals of the FedEx St Jude Championship. As a result, this has to be the target score this week.

Who are the Favorites in the 2024 FedEx St Jude Championship First Round Leader Market This Week?

• Scottie Scheffler +1100
• Xander Schauffele +1600
• Rory McIlroy +1800
• Collin Morikawa +2200
• Ludvig Aberg +2800

2024 FedEx St Jude Championship Leader Picks

Here are my four picks in the 2024 FedEx St Jude Championship First Round Leader market this week.

Corey Conners +3500 (DraftKings)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 67.75
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 69.00 (11th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 69-67-65-71-68
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 9th,18th, 8th, 18th, 14th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.35% (38th on the PGA Tour)

I couldn't get to Corey Conners outright this week, the price was just too short, but he makes an obvious case again.

You have to go back to the Open Championship in 2023 for the last time Conners lost strokes on Approach, and in that span, he has only lost strokes off the tee in three events as well. Before those blips off the tee at the Valero Texas Open, an event he has won twice, The Masters, a major he loves, and his home event the RBC Canadian Open, you had to go back to the Players Championship in 2023 for a bad week off the tee. Simply put, Conners is striping the ball and should be in prime form for a first-round lead.

The Canadian has held the first-round lead six times in his career already and after posting a career-best finish of 6th here last year, thanks to a pair of 65s over the weekend, Conners should be confident of a hot start here.

Conners can kick off his playoff campaign with a fast start in Memphis, where his excellent tee to green game should come to the fore.

Justin Thomas +4000 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 66.00
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 69.13 (17th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 71-77-68-62-68
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 19th, 132nd, 26th, 1st, 3rd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.84% (23rd on the PGA Tour)

Justin Thomas has got some work to do to get back to winning ways, but he has all the tools to shoot a low round at this golf course, as he has done in the past when winning the tournament.

On top of his ability to play this golf course well, which has led to him sitting 18th, 5th, 13th, and 30th after round 1 here, averaging a score of 67 on Thursday, Thomas has also been starting fast of late.

1st and 3rd after round 1 in back-to-back weeks in Scotland and 26th in his last start in the United States, Thomas has averaged 66.00 in the opening round of his last three events, and he can start quickly again here.

Thomas showed strong iron play at the Memorial and the Travelers, so been good in two of his last three starts Stateside in that department, and he really should have got more out of his game in his two starts in Scotland. While that leaves question marks about his ability to finish all four rounds, I am still confident he can go low on Thursday.

JT is looking for the 13th first round lead of his career, which can come here this week.

Sepp Straka +5500 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 68.40
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 69.45 (30th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 69-66-70-70-67
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 33rd, 27th, 99th, 11th, 6th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 20.32% (149th on the PGA Tour)

Sepp Straka still probably sits in the category of "underrated" and his Approach play in recent months has gone a little under the radar.

The Austrian ranks 4th in this field in SG Approach over the past 15 weeks and given the elite company that puts him in, we should probably stand up and take notice.

Add in the fact that Straka has already come close to winning at this course, losing out to Will Zalatoris in a playoff, and you have a prime candidate for a fast start.

A glance at his course form shows that he was 4th after round 1, when he nearly one, and in his past two starts he has ended round 1 in 11th and 6th place respectively, so he's getting off to fast starts of late as well.

I like him as a fit for this course and he has a history of fast starts, leading after round 1 on five occasions in his career, and he can make it six this week.

Brendon Todd +10000 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 68.00
• Round Scoring Average (Season) - 69.50 (31st on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 71-66-65-73-64
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 75th, 27th, 8th, 42nd, 4th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 21.03% (122nd on the PGA Tour)

Brendon Todd was close for me in my Sleepers article, but I will settle for him as a First Round Leader pick instead.

In his last three opening rounds here at this course, Brendon Todd is averaging 66.67, sitting 2nd, 60th, and 15th after round 1 on those three occasions. 64, 69, and 67 are his last three opening rounds here, and he can fire another like he did three starts ago, given his recent form.

He already has five rounds of 66 or better under his belt here and was the 36-hole leader here in 2020, so he knows how to get off to a quick start.

That has been true in recent weeks as well, when he opened with a 64 last week to sit 4th on day one of the Wyndham Championship, and with rounds of 66 and 65 to sit 27th and 8th at the John Deere Classic and Scottish Open respectively.

Todd is hitting the ball well enough to make an impact this week, and while it might be tough to see him win, it would be no real shock to see him post a low round given his recent form.

This would be the fourth first round lead of Brendon Todd's career, were he to take the opening day lead at this week's FedEx St Jude Championship.