2024 FedEx St.Jude Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Horschel, Burns

2024 FedEx St.Jude Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Horschel, Burns

It is now time for the FedEx Cup Playoffs again, and the big guns are all back in the field, with Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy leading the way.

The FedEx St Jude Championship will feature 70 players, with the top 50 on the points list at the end of the week advancing to the BMW Championship. Then, finally, 30 players will make it to Atlanta for the Tour Championship.

With the best players back in the field, the odds on the middle of the pack are very enticing once again, and I am happy to pick out four players, who I think can pull off a win in Memphis.

Let's delve into what a player needs to do well to win here at TPC Southwind, so we can identify some of the best contenders from further down the odds board.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the FedEx St Jude Championship, check out the new FanDuel Sportsbook promotion, where new users can claim an epic bonus betting on golf this week. With the FanDuel promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 if your first bet wins. Bet on one of these picks below, and get an additional $150 if your wager wins. This promo is perfect for those looking to bet on one of the favorites this week, as you secure a huge bonus if they win.

What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 FedEx St Jude Championship

Here are the main statistics to note, ahead of the FedEx St Jude Championship.

SG Tee to Green - You need to be in total control of your game here, not only with your approaches but with straight driving as well. We have strokes gained data for four of the last five renewals of this event, and each of those four winners have ranked inside the top 6 for SG Tee to Green the week they won. Lucas Glover and Abraham Ancer ranked inside the top 31 in SG Tee to Green at the end of the season, Brooks Koepka ranked 12th, and Will Zalatoris and Justin Thomas led the Tour in the category the seasons they won here. It's for the best ball strikers, without a doubt.

Par 4 Scoring - Of the last five winners here at TPC Southwind, two have led the field in Par 4 Scoring, and the other three rank inside the top 3 inside that category. It is essential to take care of the business on the hardest holes on the course, with only two Par 5s on the course.

Scrambling - 3 of the last 5 winners have led the field in Scrambling the week they won here, while Will Zalatoris (7th) and Justin Thomas (6th) both ranked highly in that category as well.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win at TPC Southwind?

Below are the odds of each of the last 5 winners to win at this course.

2023 - Lucas Glover (+9000)

2022 - Will Zalatoris (+2800)

2021 - Abraham Ancer (+5000)

2020 - Justin Thomas (+1200)

2019 - Brooks Koepka (+1200)

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 FedEx St Jude Championship

Here are my picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 FedEx St Jude Championship.

Billy Horschel +5000 (FanDuel)

Billy Horschel is obviously a momentum player, we are going to hear all about it this week, 10 years on from his back-to-back wins in the 2014 FedEx Cup Playoffs. He won the BMW, the Tour Championship, and the FedEx Cup overall that year, and while the latter seems a pipe dream this year, he can get off to the best start.

After having a chance to win the Open Championship where he eventually finished 2nd, Horschel got right back to work, finishing 7th at the Wyndham Championship last week.

He ranks 5th in SG Tee to Green over the past 8 weeks, and he now returns to a golf course he clearly enjoys. There's every reason to expect a repeat performance this week, as he goes in search of a third-straight top 10, at a course where he has five top-10 finishes.

We know he's the man for this sort of occasion and it comes at a course he's capable of winning on, so I am happy to back an in-form Horschel at 50-1.

Sam Burns +5500 (FanDuel)

This is a value play for me. Full disclosure, I do struggle to get Sam Burns right, but at 55-1 this week, I think his current form is being slightly overlooked.

Burns has finished inside the top 15 in five of his last eight starts. It started with a 10th at the Canadian Open, where he was 5th going into the final round, and continued at the U.S. Open, where he posted his first top 10 in a major.

What I think has been lost in this run is the fact that he was in 2nd place going into the final round of the Open Championship, where a final round 80 saw him slip to 31st. Not to be discouraged, he bounced right back with a 12th at the 3M Open, where he was again better placed at halfway, sitting inside the top 10.

Burns now returns to a course where he has lost in a playoff and finished 20th a year later, when again he went into Sunday, positioned inside the top 10.

Sure, he's struggling to finish off tournaments at the moment, but he does know how to win, and the odds of him doing so here look generous.

Davis Thompson +7000 (bet365)

Davis Thompson has come on leaps and bounds over the past few months, and even outside of his win at the John Deere Classic, he's been incredibly impressive.

His stint in Scotland aside, where he actually played two really good rounds in the Scottish Open, Thompson has finished 27th, 9th, 2nd, 1st, and 12th in his last five American-based PGA Tour Starts.

This incredible run of consistency puts Thompson in the spotlight for me, and as he ranks 13th in SG Tee to Green and 15th in Par 4 Scoring Average he looks a perfect fit for the golf course here in Tennessee.

Thompson's approach play hasn't been quite as good in his past three starts, but his off-the-tee game is solid and around the greens, he looks good enough.

I think the value is there for a player who continues to play incredible golf each and every time he tees it up stateside.

Ben Griffin +12500 (BetRivers)

Ben Griffin is enjoying a fruitful run of form, which has led to three top 7 finishes at the RBC Canadian Open (2nd), the John Deere Classic (5th), and 7th again last week at the Wyndham Championship.

This run of form has been charged by excellent iron play, which has seen him gain strokes on Approach in 9 straight PGA Tour events. The best of those iron weeks came last week at the Wyndham Championship, as he ranked 2nd in the field in that SG Approach and 6th in SG Tee to Green overall.

It admittedly looks like an uphill battle for Griffin to win his first PGA Tour event among the very best players on the PGA Tour, but if a longshot is going to win here for a second year in a row, Griffin looks good as a candidate as any beyond 100-1.

Griffin finished 24th here on debut last year, breaking 70 in the first three of four rounds he played here at TPC Southwind.