ZOZO Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Kitayama, Kuchar For a Fast Start

ZOZO Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Kitayama For a Fast Start

The PGA Tour goes international this week, as they head to Japan for the 2024 ZOZO Championship. The field is headed by Xander Schauffele, defending champion, Collin Morikawa, and the local favorite, Hideki Matsuyama, but will one of these elites get off to a fast start?

The tournament favorites also lead the First Round Leader market, as Xander is the outright favorite there too, at +1200.

We have only seen four renewals of the ZOZO Championship at this course, and we have seen Tiger Woods, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, and Collin Morikawa win these events. This is an honor roll that includes exclusively major winners, but is it the same story for the First Round Leaders? Let's look into the event trends below.

2024 ZOZO Championship First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

With only four years of form to go by and a limited field in each of them, there is no need to delve too much into this. The tee times will only be a couple of hours apart, between the first and last starter of the day, so don't worry too much about when your chosen pick will start. Let's just look at what score is required to get the job done.

2023 - Collin Morikawa (#10 Tee) - 64

2022 - Brendan Steele (#1 Tee) - 64

2021 - Hiroshi Iwata (#10 Tee) - 63

2019 - Gary Woodland (#1 Tee), Tiger Woods (#10 Tee) - 64

Weather Forecast at the 2024 ZOZO Championship

The weather forecast for Thursday's round (Wednesday Night in the US) looks rather pedestrian, and with a limited field there isn't a big draw bias, but here is the outlook for Round 1 regardless.

Who in this Field Has Started the Fastest on the PGA Tour in 2024?

Here are the fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average this calendar year.

• Collin Morikawa (2nd Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.15) - Low Opening Round - 64 (Sentry, Heritage, Scottish)
• Xander Schauffele (2nd Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.15) - Low Opening Round - 62 (PGA Championship)
• Ben Silverman (4th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.64) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Barracuda Championship)
• Henrik Norlander (5th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.69) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Black Desert Championship)
• Beau Hossler (6th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.75 - Low Opening Round - 60 (Wyndham Championship)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 at the ZOZO Championship?

Over the four renewals here, three of the four first round leaders shot an opening round of 64, while 63 was required in 2021.

The target score should be 63, but if you shoot a round of 64 you will certainly be in the mix for the opening-day lead here in Japan.

The Favorites in the 2024 ZOZO Championship First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market this week, at the ZOZO Championship in Japan.

• Xander Schauffele (+1200)
• Collin Morikawa (+1600)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+1600)
• Sungjae Im (+2200)
• Sahith Theegala (+2500)

2024 ZOZO Championship First Round Leader Picks

The ZOZO Championship kicks off on Wednesday night Eastern Time, so make sure you don't miss the start of this event.

Here are my picks for this week's PGA Tour event in Japan.

Kurt Kitayama +3000 (bet365)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 70.00 (71st on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 77-66-67-65-66
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 120th, 6th, 27th, 6th, 23rd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 21.85% (110th on the PGA Tour)

The stats across the whole season might not show it, but I believe Kurt Kitayama is tailor-made for the First Round Leader market this week.

In two starts here, Kitayama has shot a final day 65 and a third round 64 so twice he's had a shot at shooting the type of score required to lead here on Thursday. Better yet, he is now firing low rounds on day one, and he can carry that on this week.

In his last four events, Kitayama has shot no worse than 67 on day one, and he's been inside the top 6 in three of those five starts. He is averaging 66.00 in the opening round of his last four starts, tied for the lowest over the past three months, alongside Ben Silverman and Taylor Pendrith.

Kitayama ranked 2nd in SG Approach, in each of his past two starts and if can continue that ball striking form this week in Japan, he'll be ready to rock and roll in Japan.

Taylor Moore +5000 (BetMGM)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 70.04 (77tth on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 69-65-71-70-65
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 46th, 9th, 58th, 73rd, 12th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 21.29% (129th on the PGA Tour)

Taylor Moore has won at the Valspar, another test that rewards accuracy and puts a premium on birdies, and there has been a decent amount of crossover between these two events. Add in a 5th place finish at the FedEx St Jude Championship, a Par 70 that also features Zoysia fairways, and it's perhaps no surprise Moore has taken to this test so quickly.

In two starts here, Moore has finished 12th and 21st, and when 12th on debut he shot a third-round 65, to show he has what it takes to compete for the lowest score of the day in Japan this week.

He has certainly show sings of improvement in his game in recent weeks, and while his Approach game over the past two weeks has left much to be desired, I still believe in Moore's scoring ability. He has shown that by shooting at least one round of 65 or better in four of his last five starts, and now it is time for him to throw that round in on the opening day, and compete for the first round lead here.

Matt Kuchar +6000 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 70.86 (154th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 68-64-70-70-67
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 24th, 4th, 37th, 73rd, 32nd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 19.53% (168th on the PGA Tour)

Matt Kuchar is playing strong golf right now, finishing 14th or better in four of his past five starts. One missed cut has interrupted this run of form, but I believe this is an excellent course for Kuchar, who is playing at Naroshino CC for the first time.

On a shorter golf course, where accuracy is more important than distance, Kuchar has every chance of picking up his first win since 2019.

I won't bet on Kuchar to win, but I will instead bank on him firing at least one low round here, hopefully, to kick off the new week.

I have already pointed out a correlation between the Sony Open and the ZOZO Championship here, and the Sony Open was the scene of Kuchar's last win. Maybe playing at a course that has been kind to those who have excelled at the Sony, will bring out the best in this veteran one more time.

Kuchar ranks inside the top 20 for both Birdie Average and 1st Round Scoring Average, which puts a rest to the fears his season-long stats could create.