RSM Classic Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Sigg, Woodland in Sea Island

RSM Classic Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Eckroat, Sigg in Sea Island

This is it. This is the final event of our sleepers and value picks column in 2024, and that means it is our last chance to cash a winner at +4000 or bigger.

Sure, many of you may want to bet on the Hero World Challenge, but that event does not fit this article, and this is the last one I will cover for the year. That means I am all in on finding a big winner and ending the year the same way we started it...

Chris Kirk kicked off 2024 in style for us, with a win at The Sentry, cashing us a 200-1 ticket, and while we won't reach those dizzying heights this week, I am hopeful we can find a winner at +4000 or bigger.

The RSM Classic features a better field than we have seen in recent weeks, as defending champion, Ludvig Aberg returns from injury and leads the betting at +1200. Next up on the odds board are, Davis Thompson (+2200), Denny McCarthy (+2800), Si Woo Kim (+2800), and Brian Harman (+3000) all players who would have been favorites in recent events.

This event is played over two courses, with each player playing one round each at the Plantation Course and the Seaside Course for the first two days, before two weekend rounds at the Seaside Course.

What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 RSM Classic?

This event features Strokes Gained data, something recent events haven't, and that means we have a good idea of what is required here. It is worth noting that the Strokes Gained data is based on the three rounds at the Seaside Course and doesn't include play at the secondary Plantation Course.

SG Tee to Green - Of the past five winners of the RSM Classic, only one has ranked worse than 4th in SG Tee to Green the week he won. That was Robert Streb in 2020, who ranked 35th. Statistically, Streb didn't rank very well across the board, outside of ranking 9th in SG Putting.

Bermuda Putting - To hit the score needed to win here, you will need to make a bunch of putts, so strong putting form on Bermuda greens is a massive pointer. Make sure the player you are backing this week has shown some form on this week's putting surface.

Greens in Regulation - Four of the last five winners here ranked inside the top 5 in Greens in Regulation, with Robert Streb in 2020 again the only outlier.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the RSM Classic?

Here are the prices of the last 10 winners at the RSM Classic. From this, we will be able to tell whether longshots have a good history in this event.

2023 - Ludvig Aberg +1200

2022 - Adam Svensson +12500

2021 - Talor Gooch +4000

2020 - Robert Streb +35000

2019 - Tyler Duncan +20000

2018 - Charles Howell III +5000

2017 - Austin Cook +9000

2016 - Mackenzie Hughes +25000

2015 - Kevin Kisner +2200

2014 - Robert Streb +7500

The average winning price over the past 10 years at the RSM Classic exceeds +12000. In fact, in the history of the event, only Kevin Kisner and Ludvig Aberg were shorter than +4000 the week they won, so there is every reason to believe another longshot can win the 2024 RSM Classic.

Given this is such a good event for first-time winners, this range of odds should come as no surprise, particularly with the event being at the end of a long schedule, and at courses with changeable weather.

RSM Classic Betting Trends, Correlating Courses

Here are the betting trends and correlated courses, which have been established over the 14 years this event has been a part of the PGA Tour schedule.

Betting Trends

Younger Players Can Excel - Of the last 12 winners of this event, only two (Tommy Gainey and Charles Howell III) were older than 33. 6 of the 12 winners were still in their 20s, including Ludvig Aberg and Mackenzie Hughes who were 24 and 25 respectively at the time of their win.

Good Event for Breakthrough Wins - 9 of the last 12 winners were winning for the first time on the PGA Tour, the week that they won the RSM Classic. Chris Kirk (2013), Charles Howell III (2018), and Robert Streb (2nd time in 2020) were the three exceptions. For Ludvig Aberg and Tyler Duncan, it was their first pro win at any level.

Course Form Not a Necessity - You can overcome poor or even zero course form to win at this event. Robert Streb, Mackenzie Hughes, and Austin Cook all won on debut, while Tommy Gainey and Ludvig Aberg both missed the cut in their one-and-only course start before winning here. Adam Svensson missed four cuts in this event before winning, while Talor Gooch and Tyler Duncan had both failed to crack the top 20 before winning here. Kevin Kisner (4th), Charles Howell III (6th), and Robert Streb (Win) had all shown something before, but it isn't a key requirement.

Correlating Courses

Here are the courses I think can provide clues for a potential longshot winner at the 2024 RSM Classic. There has been plenty of crossover between these events and the winners of the RSM Classic in the past, so it is worth considering form at these events.

Honda Classic (Cognizant Classic)

Here are some results that lead me to believe that form at PGA National, host of the Honda Classic/Cognizant Classic can point us in the right direction for an RSM Classic winner:

• Chris Kirk has won at both courses
• Mackenzie Hughes has won here, and finished 2nd two more times, while also finishing 2nd at the Honda
• Adam Svensson has won and finished 5th here, while also finishing 9th at the Honda
• Robert Streb is a two-time winner here and has finished 13th and 18th at the Honda
• Tyler Duncan has finished 1st and 3rd here and 3rd and 24th at the Honda
• Ben Crane won here and finished 3rd at the Honda
• Tommy Gainey won here and finished 5th at the Honda
• Austin Eckroat won the Cognizant Classic in 2024 and finished 8th here last year
• Blayne Barber has finished 2nd here and 3rd at the Honda
• Billy Horschel has finished 2nd here and 4th and 8th at the Honda
• Camilo Villegas won the Honda Classic and finished 2nd here
• Brendon De Jonge finished 2nd and 4th here and 9th at the Honda Classic
• Will MacKenzie has finished 2nd here and 5th, 6th and 12th at the Honda Classic
• David Toms has finished 2nd here and 3rd at the Honda Classic

Valspar Championship

Here is some correlation between the RSM and the Valspar.

• Mackenzie Hughes has won here and finished 3rd at the Valspar
• Robert Streb has won here and finished 7th at the Valspar
• Austin Cook has won here and finished 9th at the Valspar
• Tyler Duncan has won here and finished T25 at the Valspar
• Webb Simpson has finished 2nd at both events
• Brendon De Jonge has finished 2nd and 4th here and 5th at the Transitions Championship (Valspar)
• Will MacKenzie has finished 2nd here and 4th at the Valspar

Here are three events that provide plenty of correlation that should also be considered:

• Sony Open
• RBC Heritage
• Wyndham Championship

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 RSM Classic

Here are my picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 RSM Classic. This is our last chance to land a winner at +4000 and bigger before the end of the year, so let's go out with a bang!

Austin Eckroat +5000 (FanDuel)

Austin Eckroat has won twice this season, including last time out at the World Wide Technology Championship, and while some may find it hard to envisage him winning three times in 2024, this is a perfect setup for him.

Eckroat finished 8th on his RSM Classic debut last year, and his win at the Cognizant Classic this year gives him clear correlating form. Add to that a 6th at the Wyndham Championship, a 12th at the Sony Open, and a 17th at the RBC Heritage, and Eckroat looks a stellar fit for this event.

This has been a breakthrough year for Eckroat and while there will be plenty of sceptics about his ability to win three times in a year, that doesn't mean we should overlook him. At +5000, he looks too big in this field, especially with doubts over Aberg and his fitness at the top of the market.

Greyson Sigg +7000 (Caesars)

Greyson Sigg was my first bet this week. The Georgian is playing in his home event and over the past two years that has proved a positive, having finished 8th and 15th in those two starts.

In addition to his form here, Sigg is an improving player overall, as 6 of his top 20 finishes according to OWGR have come in 2024. The best of those was a 4th at the Procore Championship, which was the best effort of his PGA Tour career, and the first of three top finishes in this Fall Season.

Three of his top 20 best finishes have come in this Fall Swing, with his 9th last week at the Bermuda Championship adding to an 11th at the Black Desert Championship, and that 4th at the Procore. He hasn't looked like winning at any point during these three events, but he's in excellent form, and I think he can now make his first run at winning on the PGA Tour.

Sigg led the field in Greens in Regulation in Bermuda last week, and that is his biggest strength and one that can lead him to success here. If he can replicate that success and continue to improve on the greens, he has a great chance this week.

This event has been kind to first-time winners and Sigg certainly fits the mold of a player who can elevate their profile from a Korn Ferry Tour winner to a PGA Tour winner at this event. Chris Kirk and Kevin Kisner are other Georgians who have won here at their local course, and Sigg can join his fellow Bulldogs in getting a win on Sea Island.

Gary Woodland +8000 (BetRivers)

I loved Gary Woodland's chances at the ZOZO Championship, and while that didn't work out, I am willing to chance him again here.

The 2019 U.S. Open winner has had a tough couple of years, dealing with a huge health scare, putting his life and career into perspective. The way he has bounced back in the second half of the year though has been really impressive, and I think it speaks volumes that he's playing here for the first time since 2012.

While the results hadn't necessarily been there until recently, Woodland had offered plenty of encouragement through his iron play, starting at the 3M Open in July. It's been pretty good ever since, ranking inside 2nd and 5th in SG Approach going into the ZOZO Championship. He didn't hit those same heights with his iron play at the ZOZO, but I think he can find it here again.

One start yielded one missed cut here, but that was just his second season on the PGA Tour, and from what we have seen of him since, this event should surely suit him.

Woodland's first PGA Tour win came at the Transitions Championship, or what is now known as the Valspar Championship and that is a correlation I like. One that is perhaps even stronger is the Honda Classic form line, where he's also finished 2nd. Add in two more top 6 finishes at the Honda and 3rd and 7th place finishes at the Sony Open, and you have a player who should like this course.

At 80-1, I will take a swing that Gary Woodland is ready to complete the comeback in his final start of the year.

Alex Smalley +12000 (FanDuel)

Alex Smalley is another player like Greyson Sigg who has yet to break through on the PGA Tour, the difference is he also hasn't won at the Korn Ferry level, so he is more in the mold of Austin Cook and Tyler Duncan than he is a Robert Streb or Adam Svensson.

That doesn't bother me though, there are plenty of signs to suggest Smalley can break through at this level and this course looks like as good a place as any for him to do so.

His 5th here in 2022 is one of five top-5 finishes for Alex Smalley on the PGA Tour, and that includes runner-up finishes at both the John Deere Classic and the Corales, two more low-scoring events.

5th at the Sanderson Farms kicked off a strong run of form for him this fall, as he's since finished 25th at the Black Desert Championship and made three cuts since. Just making the cut isn't enough in its own right, but he shot two rounds of 66 last week, and when you add that to his form at the Sanderson and Black Desert Championship, he's obviously playing some good golf.

After missing the cut on debut here, Smalley then finished 5th in 2022, and while he wasn't able to follow that up last year, middle rounds of 67 and 65 offer encouragement again, and suggest his 44th-place finish doesn't tell the full story.

T27 at the Valspar where he was on track to do better in 2023 is another good sign for me, as is his form at the Wyndham, where he has finished 13th and 29th.

His chances aren't as clear-cut as others, but that's why he's 120-1, despite finishing inside the top 5 already in this Fall Swing.

Wesley Bryan +12000 (FanDuel)

Following Wesley Bryan last week provided a rollercoaster of emotions. He was right in the mix on Friday, before closing his round out with two bogeys and a double over his last five holes. It was then that it felt like his good start was for nothing.

Then, Bryan proceeded to shoot 61 on Saturday courtesy of two eagles, six birdies, and no bogeys, putting himself right back in the mix. Then Sunday happened. A triple-bogey on the 4th killed his chances even with bogeys on either side, and two more bogeys and a double on the back 9 saw him tumble down the leaderboard.

The encouraging thing is that he kept making birdies all week and his 3 eagles were tied for the most in the field, so he's clearly found the scoring touch - now it is time to refine his game again.

Since the Fall season started, Bryan is 5/5 for made cuts with three top 20 finishes, a 21st, and a 37th. When 13th at the Procore he was 7th at halfway, and when 17th last week he was 4th going into Sunday, so he's been in the mix a couple of times and now it's time for him to put all four rounds together.

His correlative form suggests this might be the place he does it as well. Bryan's only PGA Tour win came at the RBC Heritage, an event that provides plenty of crossover, and his 4th at the Honda Classic and 7th at the Valspar Championship provide extra encouragement.

Now almost double the odds he was last week, despite another strong start, I will give Bryan one more shot to see out 2024.