2025 PGA Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back DeChambeau, McIlroy in Round 1
One of the most exciting things about a PGA Tour major is the first round, and taking long shot odds on the leader of Round 1. Matt MacKay is here to help you out, looking for value on some of the top stars on Thursday. He's targeting Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy to start hot, among others. If you think they can win it all, the journey starts with a strong Day 1 at Quail Hollow for these 2025 PGA Championship First Round Leaders picks.
Matt MacKay - May 13, 2025, 7:47 PM EDT
5 min2025 PGA Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back DeChambeau, McIlroy in Round 1
The PGA Tour heads to Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the 2025 PGA Championship. It's the second of four majors played this season, following Rory McIlroy's breakthrough win in a playoff over Justin Rose at The Masters.
Let's get some early action at Quail Hollow and target a handful of golfers in the First Round Leader betting market. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, both co-favorites to win the PGA Championship at +500 odds, are each +1600 favorites in the First Round Leader market.
PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is back with three golfers who have a strong probability of leading the PGA Championship field after Round 1 at Quail Hollow Club. Follow Matt's X account for more PGA betting analysis and free picks throughout the 2025 PGA Tour season.
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2025 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS
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2025 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date:Thursday, May 15 - Sunday, May 18, 2025
- Time: 7:00 AM - 8:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: ESPN+, ESPN, Paramount+, CBS
PGA First Round Leader: 2025 PGA Championship
Rory McIlroy (+1600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best PGA Championship odds
Rory McIlroy has won four at Quail Hollow Club four separate times during his PGA Tour career. His last victory came in 2024 during the Wells Fargo Championship held here in Charlotte.
There's no doubt that McIlroy is comfortable playing this lengthy par 71 course. He's ranked 15th in Round 1 scoring average in 2025 (69.00) and has three outright wins, including the first major at The Masters.
Unlike Scottie Scheffler, who has not played this course outside of the Presidents Cup, McIlroy has a massive winning pedigree at Quail Hollow. He'll likely jump out to an early lead and build on it during Round 1, so let's bet half a unit (0.50) on McIlroy to win Round 1 at +1600 odds.
Bryson DeChambeau (+2200) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best PGA Championship odds
Bryson DeChambeau didn't lead after Round 1 at Augusta National but he was one of only six golfers to go 3-under-par or lower. The power-hitter is built for a par 71 like Quail Hollow, which runs over 7,600 yards.
He's coming off of a win at LIV Korea. Plus, DeChambeau has plenty of motivation to play better than the last time we saw him in a major, sliding down The Masters' leaderboard and out of contention on Sunday.
We've watched DeChambeau grab a First Round lead several times in majors throughout his career, so at +2200 odds, I'm willing to invest another half unit on DeChambeau as the third favorite in the First Round Leader betting market at this price.
Justin Thomas (+3500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best PGA Championship odds
After enduring a tough stretch on the PGA Tour in 2023 and 2024, Justin Thomas is all the way back in 2025. He's red-hot right now and a golfer worth backing in a variety of betting markets, including First Round Leader.
Thomas won the RBC Heritage with an impressive 28-foot birdie putt to end a three-year winning drought. He followed that performance up with a runner-up finish at the Truist Championship on Sunday. Both of these outings came at Signature Events.
Thomas ranks 39th in Round 1 scoring average (69.55) this season. He's first in birdie or better percentage, third on par 4 birdie or better leaders, while ranked third in total strokes gained. It also helps knowing that he won this major at Quail Hollow eight years ago.
Let's bet one more half unit on Thomas to rack up birdies early and wind up as the First Round Leader at 35-1 odds.
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