2025 Charles Schwab Challenge Preview, PGA Tour Best Bets at Colonial
The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge will get underway from Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas this Thursday. Matt MacKay is getting you ready with his best prop bets for the challenge, featuring Aaron Rai, Scottie Scheffler, and more.
Matt MacKay
| 5 Minutes
2025 Charles Schwab Challenge Preview, PGA Tour Best Bets at Colonial
It's Scottie Scheffler's world and we're just living in it as the PGA Tour heads to Fort Worth, Texas for the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge this week. Scheffler just won his third major during the 2025 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club. Now, he's got an opportunity to record three straight wins on the PGA Tour for the first time in his career.
The top-ranked golfer in the world has had quite a bit of success at Colonial Country Club, which is the course that hosts the Charles Schwab Challenge. Scheffler has carded previous finishes of P2-T3-T2 at this event, losing by five strokes to Davis Riley last year.
There's a massive gap in the Charles Schwab Challenge outright winner betting market. Scheffler is the shortest he's been all year at +240 odds, followed by former Charles Schwab Challenge champions, Daniel Berger (+2200) and Jordan Spieth at +2500 odds. Riley's looking to become the first golfer to go back-to-back at Colonial since Ben Hogan accomplished this feat 70 years ago. His odds are currently +5000.
PGA handicapper Matt MacKay has a few best bets to place ahead of Round 1 at the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge. Follow Matt's X account for more PGA betting analysis and free picks throughout the 2025 PGA Tour season.
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2025 CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE ODDS
Click here for complete Charles Schwab Challenge Odds
2025 CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: Thursday, May 22 - Sunday, May 25, 2025
- Time: 8:15 AM - 7:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: ESPN+, Golf Channel, CBS
PGA Best Bets: 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge
Top 30 Finish
The Top Finish betting markets allow us to get action across all four rounds on select golfers. Oddsmakers are bullish on Aaron Rai to contend for the outright win this week at Colonial, available at +3000 in the outright winner market.
I think 30-1 is a bit short for Rai, who only has one top 10 finish on the PGA Tour in 2025. He did record his breakthrough win at the Wyndham Championship last year.
The Englishman is the best on the PGA Tour at driving accuracy, finding fairways with consistency to avoid bad lies. His putting has been a weak point, although Rai does sit 20th SG: Approach and 16th at finding greens in regulation at over 69 percent.
Short game remains an area of concern for Rai, who is outside the top 100 in scrambling, sand save rate, putts per round and approach shots from 200+ yards. Colonial is a par 70 that runs under 7,300 yards, with most par 4s running under 450 yards off-the-tee.
This course is well-designed for Rai to flex his tee-to-green accuracy. He logged a T32 finish at the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge, while recently stacking four top 30 finishes in his past five events. This includes a T19 at the PGA Championship last week.
Let's bet a unit on Aaron Rai to record his fourth straight top 30 finish at -120 odds.
- Best Bet: Aaron Rai Top 30 Finish (-120) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Charles Schwab Challenge Top 30 Finish Odds
Tournament H2H Matchup: Brian Harman (-125) vs. Andrew Novak (+100)
I'll target Brian Harman in the Tournament head-to-head matchup betting market as a slight favorite against Andrew Novak at -125 odds. Harman logged a T24 finish at Colonial in 2024 and a T29 finish in 2023.
Novak has had a great 2025 on the PGA Tour, winning at the Zurich Classic for his first career win and forcing a playoff against Justin Thomas at the RBC Heritage. Novak logged a T40 finish at Colonial in 2023 and missed the cut here last year.
Novak ranks 71st SG: Off-the-Tee, 109th SG: Approach and 168th at finding greens in regulation. He's strong with his short game, ranked 20th scrambling and seventh in sand save percentage. Also 39th in putting average.
Harman's much better than Novak tee-to-green in 2025. He's 39th in driving accuracy, 41st at finding greens in regulation, and 23rd proximity. Harman's putting is his primary weakness, while also lacking power off-the-tee.
Ultimately, Harman is the better fit at Colonial than Novak. Yes, Harman has slid outside the top 40 in back-to-back events. However, Novak's top 20 run ended with a missed cut at Quail Hollow Club during the PGA Championship.
Let's bet a unit on Brian Harman to win this Charles Schwab Challenge head-to-head matchup prop as a slight favorite at -125 odds over Andrew Novak.
- Best Bet: Brian Harman (-125)
Outright Winner
No surprise here but I'm willing to bet a unit on Scottie Scheffler to continue making history with three straight wins for the first time in his PGA Tour career. This event is in Fort Worth, making it a home town outing for the World's No. 1 ranked golfer who is a resident of Dallas.
Scheffler has been close to winning the Charles Schwab Challenge three years in a row. He's fallen short but right now, he's on top of his game.
Ranks first in total strokes gained, second SG: Off-the-Tee, first SG: Approach, and 15th SG: Putting. Second in proximity, third at hitting greens in regulation, 23rd on approach shots from 200+ yards and third in scrambling.
Simply put, Scheffler's short price is more than justified. Betting on a favorite at +240 odds before Round 1 tees off is not as much fun as tailing other favorites with significantly longer odds. However, there's no reason to fade Scheffler ahead of his return to Colonial Country Club this week.
Let's bet a unit, potentially up to two units, on Scheffler to finally win the Charles Schwab Challenge at +240 odds.
- Best Bet: Scottie Scheffler (+240) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Charles Schwab Challenge winner odds
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