2025 Open Championship First Round Leader Picks: Expect Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele To Start Hot
The most exciting part of betting on the golf majors is the first round leader picks, and Matt MacKay has cooked up a great selection here. He's expecting Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele to dominate in Thursday's opening round, so tail these bets bets for July 17th at Royal Portrush in The Open Championship.
Matt MacKay - July 16, 2025, 11:00 PM EDT
5 Minute Read2025 Open Championship First Round Leader Picks: Expect Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele To Start Hot
Northern Ireland's Royal Portrush is set to host the 2025 Open Championship for the final major of the PGA Tour season this week. It's a par 71 links course that runs nearly 7,400 yards, spanning scenic coastline that will have wind and rain in effect throughout the tournament.
Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm are currently the top three betting favorites ahead of Round 1. The opening round tees off at 1:30 a.m. ET on Thursday morning.
Defending champion, Xander Schauffele, is the fifth overall betting favorite at +2500 odds. He's coming off of a T8 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open, matching his best performance of the season.
PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is back with his favorite First Round Leader prop picks to tail during the Open Championship. Follow Matt's X account for more PGA betting analysis and free picks.
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2025 Open Championship Odds
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2025 OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: Thursday, July 17 - Sunday, July 20, 2025
- Time: 1:30 AM - 3:30 PM ET
- How to Watch: NBC, Golf Channel, Peacock, CBS, USA Network, NBC Sports App, The Open App
2025 Open Championship First Round Leader Picks
Jon Rahm (+2500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best The Open Championship odds
30-year-old Spaniard, Jon Rahm, has played well in all three majors in 2025. The LIV golfer hasn't gone lower than a 69, which he recorded during the U.S. Open at Oakmont last month.
Rahm is a bomber off-the-tee, averaging 322.4 yards per attempt. He's also third in scrambling, second in total birdies, and leads all LIV golfers with a scorching 74 percent greens in regulation percentage.
25-1 in the First Round Leader betting market is appealing enough to back Rahm at this price.
Xander Schauffele (+3500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best The Open Championship odds
In 2024, Xander Schauffele enjoyed a career year, winning two majors, adding nine total wins to his PGA Tour resume. It's been a slower start for this major's defending champion, although he just matched his best finish of the season with a T8 finish in Scotland on Sunday.
Schauffele plays well on links courses. He's currently ranked seventh SG: Approach, including 45th for approach shots from 200+ yards. Putting has been an issue in 2025 but Schauffele's talent on this type of course, combined with his improved form, warrants a First Round Leader wager at +3500 odds.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+5500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best The Open Championship odds
Matt Fitzpatrick is no longer flying under the radar. Despite posting consecutive top 10 finishes entering Royal Portrush, oddsmakers still have the Englishman valued at 55-1 in the First Round Leader market.
This feels like a great chance to grab value on the 2022 U.S. Open champion. Fitzpatrick just posted a T4 finish at the Renaissance Club, showcasing his skills on links courses. He's 14th on approach shots from 200+ yards, 15th in sand save rate and 46th in bounce back rate.
Most of his game is solid at the moment, so let's invest in Fitzpatrick's +5500 First Round Leader prop at Royal Portrush.
Harry Hall (+8000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best The Open Championship odds
I'm targeting another Englishman in the First Round Leader market, Harry Hall, who paces the PGA Tour in putts per round. The 27-year-old is also second in putting average and one-putt percentage, while sitting third in SG: Putting this season.
Hall's eighth in scrambling as well, which shows how effective he is with his short game. This has led to him ranked second in scoring average, third on par 4s and third in birdie average. Hall is also 35th in sand save rate, which helps when navigating pot bunkers on links courses.
Hall is third in Round 1 scoring average in 2025, so at +8000 odds, he deserves to be prioritized in this First Round Leader betting market.
Bud Cauley (+12500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best The Open Championship odds
Bud Cauley is a name that isn't as familiar as the other four golfers listed in this article. The 35-year-old American has four top 10 finishes this season, although he only has one top 25 finish since the beginning of June.
Cauley is a quality ball-striker who can also putt well, which makes me like him a lot at this lucrative 125-1 price in the First Round Leader market. Ranks 18th in total strokes gained, including 30th SG: Approach and 35th SG: Putting.
19th in sand save percentage, 33rd on par 4s and 36th putting average further demonstrates Cauley's talent. To top it all off, he's ranked 33rd in Round 1 scoring average, so don't hesitate to sprinkle on Cauley as a longshot First Round Leader on Thursday.
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