2026 U.S. Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back McIlroy, Reed for Strong Starts at Shinnecock

My Four Picks in the 2026 U.S. Open First Round Leader Market

Shinnecock Hills plays host to the U.S. Open for the third time this millennium, and if 2018's renewal is anything to go by, the players could be in for a tough week.

Couple a tough course with what looks like tough, breezy conditions again this week, and you are staring at a winning score around level par. Not one player finished under par in 2018, with Brooks Koepka getting the win at +1, but can anyone defy the odds and the weather and get off to a fast start this week?

To lead here in round 1 eight years ago, you had to shoot under-par, but four players were tied at -1 (69), and there is very little reason to believe anyone will go much deeper this time around either, with wind slated to play havoc in New York,

With that in mind, rather than the habitual low scorers you would typically look for in the first round leader market, you might this time be best served looking for those that can grind their way through tough conditions and limit mistakes rather than rack up the birdies here.

The weather, of course, can change, so I won't put all my eggs in one basket, but as it stands, expecting a player to go any better than -2 in these conditions looks a tough ask.

Let's dive into the data to see if there are any trends we can follow from past U.S. Opens, including the one here in 2018, to aid us in our picks for this market.

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2026 U.S. Open First Round Leaders Odds

2026 U.S. Open Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 18th - Sunday, June 21st, 2026
• Time: 6:30 am ET
• Where to Watch: USA, NBC, Peacock

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Former U.S. Open First Round Leaders - Who Has Led on Day One of the Most Recent Renewals?

Here are the last five first round leaders of the U.S. Open, as well as a glimpse of the 2018 renewal, as it was the last time Shinnecock played host.

2025 - J.J. Spaun (7:07 am #10) - 66

2024 - Patrick Cantlay (7:40 am #10), Rory McIlroy (1:14 pm #1) - 65

2023 - Rickie Fowler (8:02 am #10), Xander Schauffele (8:24 am #10) - 62

2022 - Adam Hadwin (2:09 pm #1) - 66

2021 - Russell Henley (8:48 am #1), Louis Oosthuizen (3:17 pm #10) - 67 - Fog delayed start by 90 minutes

2018 - Scott Piercy (6:45 AM #1), Ian Poulter (7:51 am #1), Russell Henley (12:52 pm #1), Dustin Johnson (1:47 pm #1)

It is noticeable that all four players who tied for the lead on day one teed off from the 1st tee in 2018, while generally, teeing off from the 10th tee in round 1 has been favorable in past U.S. Opens. In the case of 2018, I suspect it was the slightly easier start that let players get their scores underway and then hang on. For example, Dustin Johnson and Ian Poulter were both -2 on the front and +1 on the back in round 1, Russell Henley went -3 on the front and +2 on the back, while Scott Piercy broke the mould going -1 on the back after a level-par front nine.

With this in mind, I am going to be slightly favoring players starting on the 1st tee this week, and based on the weather, those who are starting early.

U.S. Open First Round Leader Trends

Major Champions Rule

Looking at the past five years of first round leaders in the U.S. Open and the 2018 renewal, a major winner has generally had a say on day one. J.J. Spaun led after round 1 last year and obviously went on to win, and Rory McIlroy, who was a four-time major winner at the time, tied with major contender Patrick Cantlay in 2024. Xander Schauffele, who went on to win two majors in 2024, tied with Rickie Fowler on day one in 2023, who we know contended in several majors, famously finishing in the top 5 of every major in 2014. Adam Hadwin broke the mould slightly in 2022, but Louis Oosthuzien, a former Open Championship winner, led with Russell Henley in 2021.

Then, here in 2018, the 2016 U.S. Open winner, Dustin Johnson, was among the four co-leaders, while Ian Poulter, who has multiple top finishes in the majors, got in on the action as well.

Deep First Round Leader Experience is a Must

If you are going to start fast at a U.S. Open, history suggests that you must have a deep history of being the fastest starter at some level.

J.J. Spaun, who led after round 1 in 2025, had held six first-round leads on the PGA Tour and a further two on the Korn Ferry before leading this major after round 1 twelve months ago.

Rory McIlroy had held 35+ first-round leads before leading the 2024 U.S. Open after round 1, with multiple coming in majors. Patrick Cantlay had held five on the PGA Tour, six if you include at lead with his partner at the Zurich Classic.

Rickie Fowler had held 9 career first-round leads before his 2024 first-round lead alongside Xander Schauffele in 2023, one of which was in a previous U.S. Open. Schauffele had only held one as an individual and two overall, but he has since gone on to lead at the 2024 PGA Championship, which he won as well.

Adam Hadwin had held three career first-round leads before his lead at the 2022 U.S. Open.

Russell Henley had led the 2018 U.S. Open here before his 2021 U.S. Open co-lead with Louis Oosthuizen, and had led three other events after round 1 as well. Oosthuizen had previous, having held ten first-round leads after round 1 in his career, and later leading the 2021 Open Championship after round 1 as well.

Weather Forecast for Round 1 of the 2026 U.S. Open

As mentioned earlier, the forecast for the opening round, and indeed much of the 2026 U.S. Open, is grim. Here is the forecast for day one, which suggests the very earliest starters could get out and post a score, before havoc wreaks in the afternoon.

With that said, play could even be cancelled in the afternoon wave, so I wouldn't completely avoid the afternoon starters if you like someone, as they could have the chance to come back in better conditions on Friday.

Who are the Fastest Starters in the Field This Year?

Here are the top 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2026 PGA Tour season.

• Nick Taylor (3rd Overall in 2026 - Scoring Average 68:69 - Low Opening Round - 62 (Sony Open)
• Hideki Matsuyama (9th Overall in 2026 – Scoring Average 69.21) – Low Opening Round – 64 (Farmers Insurance Open)
• Kevin Roy (10th overall in 2026 - Scoring Average 69.23) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Sony Open)
• Davis Thompson (10th overall in 2026 - Scoring Average 69.23) - Low Opening Round - 66 (Valero Texas Open, Valspar Championship - *59 in Zurich Classic)
• Chris Gotterup (13th overall in 2026 - Scoring Average 69.29) - Low Opening Round - 63 (Sony Open)

The Sony Open has a lot to answer for, and it skews a lot of these results. While the above is factually correct, I would be hesitant to focus on these players based solely on season performance, as we can see, low opening rounds at the low-scoring Sony will bring their respective averages down considerably.

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1?

Based on the 2018 U.S. Open and the current weather reports, anything under par would make you a clear contender, so if you break 70 here, you are going to be in pole position to lead. I would suggest a level-par 70 could put you in the mix as well, unless the very early starters can get to a couple under, or the play gets delayed until Friday morning.

A punchy target of 68 (-2) looks ideal, but I think anything under-par will be competitive.

The Favorites in the U.S. Open First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2026 US. Open.

• Scottie Scheffler +1600
• Rory McIlroy +2200
• Cameron Young +3300
• Tommy Fleetwood +3500
• Jon Rahm +3500
• Ludvig Aberg +3500

2026 U.S. Open First Round Leader Picks

Here are my picks in the first round leader market for the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills.

Rory McIlroy +2200 Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 74-67-70-74-71
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 69-1-29-105-13

I like Rory McIlroy's chances of winning the U.S. Open, and when he wins a major, he quite often starts fast, having held the first round lead in 4 of his 7 major wins.

He has been the best major player this season, going wire-to-wire to defend his Masters title, and then bouncing back from a disastrous opening round at the PGA, where he was outside the top 100, to finish in 7th place.

There may be concern over his missed cut here in 2018, but that was the second of three straight missed cuts in the U.S. Open at the time, and after opening with a round of 80, he bettered his score by 10 strokes to shoot 70 on day two, a score that will put him in the mix this week.

Solid scoring is the order of the day on Thursday this week, as opposed to a lights-out performance, and McIlroy has the tools to grind his way to an opening-day lead at Shinnecock Hills.

If he does, this would be his fourth first-round lead of the season, having held a lone lead at the Dubai Invitational and a share of the lead at the Genesis Invitational and the Masters.

Patrick Reed +4500 Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook

• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 65-71-69-69-68
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 1-71-55-3-8

If you are looking for a grinder, then Patrick Reed is the absolute epitome of that, and I am very keen to have him on side in tough conditions.

Despite having no home and only making limited starts on the DP World Tour (where he has already won this season), Reed is playing well in the majors. 12th at Augusta and 10th at the PGA Championship, with no reps in between or since, suggests he's found his own (successful) way to prepare.

While I think the lack of playing time could be the difference between him contending and winning, I do think he has the right game to start well here, as he has done in the two majors so far.

He sat 3rd after round 1 at Augusta and 8th after the opening lap at the PGA Championship, and now he returns to the scene of his best-ever U.S. Open finish. His 4th here in 2018 is his sole top 10 finish in a U.S. Open so far, and while he's played them solidly, this is the only one where he cracked the top 10.

Reed did lead the 2015 U.S. Open at halfway and was 3rd after round 1, and two years later, he sat 7th after the opening day, so he has a history of starting this major well, and I will back him to continue the run of form he is showing both at this event and in the majors so far this season.

The fact that the leading score will be around level-par suits him to the ground, and I expect him to be a factor right from the outset this week at Shinnecock Hills.

Rickie Fowler +10000 Check out the best odds at bet365 Sportsbook

• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 69-74-70-70-79
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 9-61-34-83-68

Rickie Fowler's form has dipped of late, but he has a fantastic record in the majors, and has twice held the opening day lead, on his own in 2017 and there sharing the lead with Xander Schauffele in 2023.

His record in majors is spectacular in general, and he had a real shot at winning this tournament again back in 2023, where he led for the first three rounds.

He's going through a bit of a tough spell the last few weeks, but it's easy to forget that he racked up three-straight top 10s heading into the PGA Championship, almost winning the week before at the Truist Championship.

Fowler will have to reverse his current form, but like Reed, I like his ability to grind in tough conditions, highlighted nicely by three top 6 finishes in the Open Championship.

Sitting 32nd in Bogey Avoidance on Tour, despite a poor recent run, I think Fowler can get the job done here on day one, as the field battles against the elements for a good score. He played well enough here in 2018, bouncing back with a 69 in round 2 after an opening 73, and closing with a 65, to finish 18th. He's one to watch at triple-digits.

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