Lightning vs. Canadiens Best Bet: Victor Hedman is the Top Sleeper Value Pick for December 9th NHL Battle
The explosive Tampa Bay Lightning will look to get their offense back on track on Tuesday night against the Montreal Canadiens on their road trip. Can Victor Hedman help electrify this offense after a shutout loss on Monday? Let's take a look at the Wolf's NHL sleeper value pick for Lightning vs. Canadiens on December 9th.
The Wolf - December 9, 2025, 10:00 AM EST
4 Minute ReadTuesday NHL Diamond in the Rough Prop Pick: Will Victor Hedman Electrify Lightning on Road vs. Canadiens?
Some props scream for attention, but others hide in plain sight. On Tuesday, December 9th, The Wolf turns to the NHL board for a matchup between the Lightning and the Canadiens. Both teams are inconsistent, but Tampa leans heavily on its elite playmakers when it needs to reset. That leads us directly to defenseman Victor Hedman, who is finally settling back in after nearly a month away with injury.
Diamond in the Rough picks are all about finding mispriced edges the public overlooks, and this is a textbook example. Hedman’s point prop sits at plus money despite him historically driving offense from the blue line whenever Tampa leans on its top pair. With the Lightning coming off a shutout loss to the Leafs, The Wolf expects urgency and creativity in the offensive zone, especially on the road where veterans like Hedman tend to take control.
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Lightning vs. Canadiens Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, December 9, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: ESPN+
Lightning vs. Canadiens Odds
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The Wolf's Diamond in the Rough Prop Pick: Monday, December 9th
Victor Hedman (Lightning) Recent Trends
Hedman has recorded at least one point in 6 of his last 10 games, including a stretch of 4 straight before missing in the two games since returning from injury. That’s not a negative by The Wolf’s standards. Players often need a handful of games to rebuild timing and rhythm after falling out of game speed. This will be Hedman’s third game back, and historically he finds his groove quickly. His ice time is climbing, the touches are increasing, and his involvement on the breakout has already improved from his first game back.
Oddschecker+ Positive EV Tool Advantage
- AI Probability: 57.72%
- EV: 24.1%
- Trend: Hit in 6 of last 10 games, including 4 straight before the injury break
FairPlay AI projects Hedman to record a point at 57.72%, which gives this plus money prop a +24.1% EV. Anytime a player with Hedman’s role and usage shows a positive expected value at this price, it immediately hits The Wolf’s radar. The model loves the matchup too, projecting elevated offensive zone time for Tampa against a Montreal defense that struggles with structure against active defensemen.
The Wolf's AI Analysis
Montreal’s tendency to collapse around the slot opens up clean shooting and passing lanes for offensive defensemen. Hedman thrives when he can distribute from the top of the zone, especially on the power play. With Tampa coming off a shutout, The Wolf expects a more aggressive approach and heavier involvement from the top pair. The rust is shaking off, the minutes are stabilizing, and the plus money is too good to pass up.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Prop Pick
- Pick: Victor Hedman Over 0.5 Points (+115) Check out these best odds on BetMGM Sportsbook
NHL ODDS
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