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The run for the lilies in the Kentucky Oaks features the best 3 year old fillies in America. Nate Metz tells you why he thinks Just F Y I is the play. Check it out.
ANALYSIS

2024 Kentucky Oaks Prediction: Can We Trust Just F Y I at Kentucky Oaks?

There are 15 horses that you can choose from in the Kentucky Oaks this year, but only one can win. This year my pick out of the bunch is none other than the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies champion - Just F Y I. Here is my pitch for why the champ will be worth a win bet.

KENTUCKY OAKS DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

  • Date: May 3, 2024
  • Time: 5:51 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: USA, Peacock

2024 KENTUCKY OAKS Prediction

Just F Y I - A Case for the Champion

Just F Y I is a daughter of Justify, the most recent Triple Crown winner. Just F Y I started her career with a very impressive three straight wins. She won on debut by a head, jumped up an won the Grade 1 Frizette in the slop (which is helpful to know on a wet day like Friday) and then shipped over to California to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies race in November. She was darn near perfect as a 2 year old, but has not been bet down to heavy favoritism in any of her races. How?! She came back as the 2 year old champion in April after a four month layoff in the Grade 1 Ashland, and ended up being the 3rd betting option in the race. It blows my mind that an undefeated 2 year old champion making her 3 year old debut was not favored in that race. Just F Y I should be renamed to Just D T M - Just Doesn't Take Money. If folks aren't going to play her again in the Oaks and she is somewhere in the ballpark of the 5-1 range, I'm thinking she's my best bet of the day.

Running Style - What to Expect

Just F Y I is not a horse that needs the lead at all. I would like to see her break well in the Oaks the year (who wouldn't?) but I don't think that it's imperative that she is running up front early. I expect her to sit in the 4th - 8th position through the middle part of the race, and then make her big move. She isn't afraid to dive between horses to get up to make a big run, and I think that could be a really good feather in her cap with a big field of obstacles and other horses running around her. Expect her to swing wide at the top of the stretch and steamroll home.

Concerns - It's Still a Horse Race

Just F Y I will certainly have to deal with a big crowd and a big field on Kentucky Oaks Day. While I'm confident she'll be in with a big chance to win the lilies, it's still a horse race. Here is a list of my concerns.

  • She gets too wide on the first turn: Breaking from the 13 path, if she doesn't get good positioning behind the front runners by the time they reach the first turn, she may not have enough in the tank at the end.
  • She is too short of a price: In a race with many different horses that are in with a legitimate chance, if the money falls in love with Just F Y I for the first time in her career and she gets bet down to favoritism, how comfortable will you be? I'm ok with 7-2 or higher. If we start getting lower than that, I'll be a little less excited about the value of this filly.
  • Traffic: Finally, coming from off the pace can bring it's own challenges. If a horse that she's following ends up hitting the brakes and Just F Y I has to check and slow down, it could be the end of her rally and the end of her chances. If jockey Junior Alvarado can pick the right horse to tail, Just F Y I could find herself in the winner's circle (and I'll be cashing some tickets.)

Regardless of your pick, bet smart, and have fun! Good luck!

2024 KENTUCKY OAKS Pick

Just F Y I +550 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

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Think you know what is going to happen at the Kentucky Derby on Saturday? Make your picks below for your chance to win a $25 gift card if you get a perfect score!

KENTUCKY OAKS ODDS

Article Author

Horse Racing

Nate Metz joins Oddschecker just in time for the 2024 Triple Crown season. Nate brings his immense knowledge of horse racing to the site and looks to provide the OC readers with insight and picks for some of the biggest races in the country.

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