2024 Belmont Stakes Betting Pick: How to Bet on the Belmont Stakes
2024 Belmont Stakes Betting Pick: How to Bet on the Belmont Stakes
This Saturday, June 8th, we have the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes in New York. There will be ten horses competition so let's take a look at my predictions and the latest odds for the Belmont Stakes.
For the latest 2024 Belmont Stakes odds, click here
2024 BELMONT STAKES MORNING LINE ODDS
| HORSE | MORNING LINE ODDS |
|---|---|
| Sierra Leone | 9-5 |
| Mindframe | 7-2 |
| Mystik Dan | 5-1 |
| Seize the Grey | 8-1 |
| Resilience | 10-1 |
| Antiquarian | 12-1 |
| Honor Marie | 12-1 |
| The Wine Steward | 15-1 |
| Dornoch | 15-1 |
| Protective | 20-1 |
2024 KENTUCKY BETTING DERBY PREVIEW - MAIN CONTENDERS
Sierra Leone
- Morning Line Odds: 9-5
- Trainer: Chad Brown
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
Sierra Leone gets a new jockey in Flavien Prat for the Belmont Stakes. Some folks may think that this is a big deal, and maybe it is - but this will be his fourth jockey in six races, so I don't think there is too much to worry about. Prat will be riding a very fast runner who on paper shapes up to be much the best in this field. Sierra Leone reminds me a bit of another favorite horse of mine: Essential Quality. EQ just barely lost the Kentucky Derby in 2021, but came back five weeks later to grind down a very fast Hot Rod Charlie. That was at Belmont Park at a mile and half, whereas this is at Saratoga at a mile and a quarter. Still, I think that Sierra Leone is the best in this field and should be bet accordingly. If we can get around 9-5 or higher, I'll be tickled.
Mindframe
- Morning Line Odds: 7-2
- Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
This horse does give me some pause when it comes to betting the farm on Sierra Leone. Mike Repole, Todd Pletcher, and Irad have teamed up to win the Belmont Stakes recently (Mo Donegal in 2022) and this could have another one brewing with this lightly raced son of Constitution. He won very easily, but got a little bit of a cushy trip his last time out against much weaker horses at Churchill Downs. Still, I have to think that this team would not send this horse into this spot if they didn't think he had a chance. Pletcher looks for Belmont number five this Saturday.
Resilience
- Morning Line Odds: 10-1
- Trainer: William Mott
- Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Going back and watching Resilience in the Kentucky Derby makes me confident that he is the best long shot value play of the race. He made an awesome move with Junior Alvarado and really didn't have too much of an excuse for falling flat other than just going a little too wide. I expect him, starting from the No. 2 post, to save ground this time and sit just behind the early pace. He's worth a second look.
Mystik Dan
- Morning Line Odds: 5-1
- Trainer: Kenny McPeek
- Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr.
The Kentucky Derby winner is all heart. I loved the efforts in both of the previous Triple Crown races, and I really hope he runs a strong race again. I do think he was the best horse in the Preakness, he just didn't quite have enough to run down Seize the Grey who got loose on the lead. Let's see if Mystik Dan can put one more good effort out before taking a little time off to prepare for the latter half of his three year old campaign.
Seize the Grey
- Morning Line Odds: 8-1
- Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
- Jockey: Jaime Torres
This is my biggest fade of the day. Seize the Grey is taking a lot of early money already (currently sitting at 7-2 and the second betting choice on Friday afternoon) and will continue to take money because half of the population of the United States owns a piece of this horse, and everyone and their brother, sister, nephew, and third cousin twice removed will be betting on the Pat Day Mile and Preakness winner. The horse give you a lot to cheer for (crowdfunded horse, charismatic 89 year old trainer, up and coming jockey, etc) but I am totally against the hype train. He's going up against the toughest field he's battled yet, and will absolutely not get an easy lead like he did in the Preakness. Fading this one hard.
BELMONT STAKES PICK
SIERRA LEONE
It's redemption time for Metz Bets. Sierra Leone was the best horse in the Kentucky Derby, and is coming back fresh and ready to rumble. With the Derby and Preakness winners both running and certainly taking a lot of money, I think that Sierra Leone is going to be pretty fair price when all is said and done. I'm hoping he goes off at around 2-1, sits not too far back in the early part of the race, and absolutely burns the competition down the stretch. He will get a lot of tiring horses in front of him, and he will get it done and get us our money back that we just missed on in the first Saturday of May. Good luck, everyone!
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