Kentucky Derby Prediction, Betting Picks, and Latest Horse Racing Odds for Saturday, May 3rd at Churchill Downs

The 151st edition of the Kentucky Derby is here, set at the iconic Churchill Downs race track in Louisville, Kentucky. Rain continues to be a factor, creating muddy conditions, which we saw during the Kentucky Oaks races on Friday.

The Run for the Roses is the 12th of 14 races on Saturday, starting at 7:02 p.m. ET. Two scratches in this field leaves 19 of 21 runners at the starting gate this evening. All runners are Thoroughbreds set to race on this 1.25 mile track.

Oddsmakers are currently valuing Journalism as the outright betting favorite at +350. Other notables include Sandman at +500, Sovereignty and Luxor Cafe at +900, as well as American Promise at +1200.

Matt MacKay has the latest Kentucky Derby odds, plus his prediction and best bet for Race 12 on Saturday afternoon. Follow Matt's X account for more analysis and free picks across most major sports betting markets.

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Kentucky Derby Odds

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Kentucky Derby Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Saturday, May 3, 2025
• Time: 6:57 PM ET
• Where to Watch: NBC, Peacock

Kentucky Derby Prediction Race 12

We're once again dealing with rain and muddy conditions at Churchill Downs on Saturday afternoon. Chalk favorite, Good Cheer (+160), just won the Kentucky Oaks on a sloppy track Friday. Will Journalism replicate this feat as the outright favorite at +350 during the Kentucky Derby?

There's good reason to expect this outcome. Journalism has won four consecutive races outright. Ranked second in power rating (86) and win percentage (80%), this Colt will be making his first appearance at a race outside California.

Sandman at +500 is intriguing. Two outright wins in the last four races and has shown consistency in closing distance speed. Odds opened at 6-1 for Sandman, shortening to the current 5-1 price.

Now we're getting into the 9-1 range with Luxor Cafe. This is a runner I really like to have a realistic chance at grabbing the outright win at a solid value.

Luxor Cafe is a Japanese runner is coming off of an outright win. Hailing as the son of American Pharoah, who won the Triple Crown a decade ago. Genetic breed proven on wet racks, which could explain why odds have moved from 15-1 to 9-1 on Luxor Cafe. Sovereignty and Journalism's sires are also equally proven in muddy conditions.

American Promise has shortened significantly from +3000 to +1200 since opening lines were released. Won two of the last four races, while trainer D. Wayne Lukas has recorded four wins at the Kentucky Derby.

American Promise is lightning-fast, coming off of a record-setting win. Sire with progeny that have at least a 20 percent win rate on muddy tracks, which further builds the case to back Sire at 12-1 odds.

The 151st Kentucky Derby comes down to Journalism or American Promise for me. Will the chalk hit two days in a row during the biggest races of the year at Churchill Downs? Or will we watch Journalism's four-race win streak get snapped with an upset?

I recommend sprinkling a quarter unit on American Promise at 12-1, while placing a full unit on Journalism based on proven win rate and power.

Kentucky Derby Betting Pick

• Best Bet: Journalism (+350) Click here to see which racebook has the best Kentucky Derby odds

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