Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Champions League Odds for Play-Off Leg 2
With a commanding lead from the first leg, Newcastle prepare to host Qarabag FK in the Champions League round of 16 second leg. The Magpies, currently sitting high in the overall tournament standings, will welcome their Azerbaijani opponents to St. James' Park on Tuesday, February 24th, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 20:00 UTC.
OC Staff - February 24, 2026, 10:15 AM EST
3 Minute ReadNewcastle vs Qarabag FK: Lineups, Team News and Prediction
With a commanding lead from the first leg, Newcastle prepare to host Qarabag FK in the Champions League round of 16 second leg. The Magpies, currently sitting high in the overall tournament standings, will welcome their Azerbaijani opponents to St. James' Park on Tuesday, February 24th, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 20:00 UTC.
Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Form
Newcastle's last outing saw them fall to a 2-1 defeat against Manchester City in the Premier League. This result followed a stunning 6-1 victory over Qarabag FK in the first leg of this Champions League tie. Looking at their last six matches across all competitions, the Tyneside club has experienced a mixed bag of results. After a 3-1 loss to Manchester City in the League Cup, they secured a narrow 3-2 home win against Brentford in the Premier League. This was followed by two crucial away victories: a 2-1 triumph over Tottenham and a 3-1 win against Aston Villa in the FA Cup. Their recent form suggests a team capable of both prolific scoring and surprising defeats.
Qarabag FK's last scheduled match against FK Neftchi in the Azerbaijani Premier League was postponed. Prior to that, they suffered the heavy 6-1 defeat at home to Newcastle in the Champions League. Before the first leg humbling, Qarabag FK had enjoyed a stronger domestic run, including a 1-0 away win against Imisli FK and a 2-1 away victory over Shamakhi FK. However, their Champions League away form has been significantly challenged, notably suffering a 6-0 loss to Liverpool in a previous group stage encounter.
Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Head to Head
The only previous meeting between these two clubs was the first leg of this Champions League tie, where Newcastle secured a dominant 6-1 away victory at Qarabag FK. This result gives the Magpies a substantial advantage coming into the second leg, with no prior history to influence the current encounter beyond that comprehensive win.
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Newcastle vs. Qarabag FK Odds
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Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Probable Lineups
Newcastle (4-3-3):
- Goalkeeper: N. Pope
- Defenders: L. Hall (DL), A. Murphy (DC), D. Burn (DC), K. Trippier (DR)
- Midfielders: J. Ramsey (MC), S. Tonali (DM), Joelinton (MC)
- Forwards: A. Gordon (FL), N. Woltemade (FC), H. Barnes (FR)
Qarabag FK (4-2-3-1):
- Goalkeeper: M. Kochalski
- Defenders: E. Cafarquliyev (DL), K. Medina (DC), B. Hüseynov (DC), M. Silva (DR)
- Midfielders: M. Jankovic (DM), P. Bicalho (DM)
- Attacking Midfielders: A. Zoubir (AML), J. Montiel (AMC), L. Andrade (AMR)
- Forward: C. Durán (FC)
Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Team News
Newcastle faces a significant list of absentees for this Champions League clash. Malick Thiaw is suspended after picking up a yellow card in the first leg. The Magpies also contend with a number of injuries, including Fabian Schär, who is out with a broken ankle, and Tino Livramento, nursing a hamstring issue. Lewis Miley is dealing with a dead leg, while Bruno Guimarães is unavailable. Further knocks affect Yoane Wissa and Sven Botman, suggesting that manager Eddie Howe might be forced into further rotation given the comfortable aggregate score.
Qarabag FK also have a couple of concerns. Bahlul Mustafazada and Shakhruddin Magomedaliyev are both listed as doubtful, which could impact their defensive solidity and goalkeeping options. If either misses out, it will add to the challenge for the visitors, who have struggled defensively in recent Champions League outings.
Prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Qarabag FK
Newcastle return to Tyneside with the tie effectively settled after last week’s 6-1 demolition in Azerbaijan. While the Magpies do not need to chase anything here, this match offers a chance to reset the mood after a recent Premier League defeat. Newcastle's offensive strengths, including their ability to score in bursts and their consistent goal-scoring record in this Champions League campaign, will likely shine through. They have found the net in every Champions League game this season, demonstrating their attacking prowess.
For Qarabag FK, the assignment is almost impossibly steep. They are attempting to overturn a five-goal deficit, something unprecedented in major European competition. Their defensive vulnerabilities are evident, having conceded six goals in each of their last two Champions League matches. While Qarabag FK possess attacking intent, especially when games open up, and Camilo Durán remains a threat on the break, their struggle for control against elite pressing sides will be a major hurdle. Newcastle’s ability to protect the centre and maintain a sharp counter-press should limit the visitors' opportunities. Despite Newcastle's recent tendency to concede two or more goals in some home games, their overall quality and the cushion from the first leg should ensure a comfortable home victory, even if Qarabag FK manage to grab a consolation goal.
Best Bet: Over 3.5 Goals (-140) Check out the best odds on Caesars Sportsbook
Given the 6-1 scoreline from the first leg and Newcastle's free-scoring form in the Champions League, an 'Over 3.5 Goals' bet presents a valuable angle. The Magpies have proven their offensive capabilities, scoring in every Champions League match this season. Qarabag FK, despite their defensive struggles, have shown they can contribute to high-scoring games when the match becomes open, and their need to attack will inevitably create chances at both ends. The prediction of a 3-1 Newcastle win already implies four goals, making this a strong betting proposition.
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