Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Holger Rune Prediction: Can Rune Impress in US Open First Round?
Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Holger Rune battle it out in the US Open this afternoon. Can Rune impress in the US Open First Round? Matt MacKay answers.
Matt MacKay - August 28, 2023, 11:08 AM EDT
5 minRoberto Carballes Baena vs. Holger Rune Prediction: Can Rune Impress in US Open First Round?
The 2023 Men's US Open is officially underway after last week's qualifying matches determined seeding. Roberto Carballes Baena will face Holger Rune in a match that heavily favors Rune at -850 moneyline odds. Baena enters 63rd in ATP Tour Rankings, while Rune is ranked fourth. Baena hasn't competed since losing in the Round of 16 in Kitzbuhel, so the +580 underdog will enter Monday's match with more rest than Rune.
Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Holger Rune Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: August 28, 2023
- Time: 12:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Holger Rune Prediction
Rune had a strong run at Wimbledon in July, winning four consecutive rounds until losing in the quarterfinals to Carlos Alcaraz in three sets. Alcaraz would go on to beat Novak Djokovic in the Finals, so Rune's lopsided loss shouldn't be scrutinized too heavily. Since Wimbledon, though, Rune has lost two straight matches against Marcos Giron (70) at the ATP Masters 1000 Canada and Mackenzie McDonald (43) at the ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati.
Baena hasn't played as poorly as his odds suggest. The 30-year-old Spaniard has gone .500, with a 2-2 record, during his last two tournaments. However, he lost in the second round to a player ranked No. 72 both times, so his test against Rune should prove far more challenging. Baena performs marginally better than Rune in break points saved and break points converted metrics, which are key indicators of sealing games and potential sets.
We're digging into the set markets for a U.S. Open game prop that will deliver plus odds for us to cash. At FanDuel Sportsbook, we're getting +134 odds on Rune to win the match and both players to win a set. So, Baena just needs to win a set while losing to Rune to settle this as a winning wager.
The last time these two faced each other at Wimbledon, Baena lost in three sets, but he forced Rune to a seventh game in the second set, which required multiple breaking points, before losing 4-6 in the third set. With more rest and a template for Rune's gameplay, I think Baena will win a set, challenging Rune before ultimately losing in the third set.
Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Holger Rune Pick
- Holger Rune wins the match and both players win a set +134 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
US Open Odds
