Andrey Rublev v Nikoloz Basilashvili Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Italian Open Odds for Tuesday, May 12th
Andrey Rublev may be the higher seed, but Nikoloz Basilashvili has paid no attention to his opponents rankings so far in Rome. He's taken down two ranked Americans, and is gunning for Rublev now. Can he pull it off in the Round of 16 on Tuesday? Let's take a look at this Andrey Rublev vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili prediction and best betting pick for Tuesday, May 12th at ATP Rome.
Peter Alexis - May 12, 2026, 6:00 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadAndrey Rublev v Nikoloz Basilashvili Prediction: Can Basilashvili Continue Red-Hot Run of Upsets, Take Down Rublev at ATP Rome Italian Open Round of 16?
Andrey Rublev meets Nikoloz Basilashvili on Tuesday, May 12, at 9:10 a.m. ET in the Round of 16 at the ATP Rome Italian Open. Rublev is favored at -335, while Basilashvili comes back at +265 after forcing his way through one of the more impressive underdog runs of the tournament.
The best bet is over 22.5 total games at -104. Rublev is the rightful favorite, but Basilashvili is playing with confidence after taking down No. 5 Ben Shelton and No. 30 Brandon Nakashima, and this number leaves room for the Georgian to push one set deep even if Rublev ultimately survives.
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Andrey Rublev v Nikoloz Basilashvili Odds
- Moneyline: Rublev (-315), Basilashvili (+275)
Andrey Rublev v Nikoloz Basilashvili Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, May 12th, 2026
- Time: 9:10 AM ET
- Where to Watch: Tennis Channel
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Andrey Rublev v Nikoloz Basilashvili Prediction
Rublev’s Rome run has been steady rather than dominant. He has cleared his first two matches in straight sets, but both landed at 20 total games, leaving only a narrow margin between a controlled win and a match that pushes over the total. That matters against an opponent with Basilashvili’s current rhythm. Rublev can still dictate with forehand pace and baseline pressure, but if one set reaches 7-5 or a tiebreak, the over becomes live even without requiring a full three-set match.
Basilashvili has been one of the tournament’s best stories. He beat Shelton 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, then followed it with a 7-6, 6-4 win over Nakashima, showing that the Shelton upset was not just a one-off. The Nakashima match was especially important for this betting angle because it was driven by service holds, limited break chances, and one decisive tiebreak, exactly the kind of structure that can push a total over 22.5 games.
The head-to-head adds another reason not to expect a routine blowout. Rublev has the overall edge, but the series has been competitive enough, with Basilashvili holding at least one clay-court win in the matchup. That does not make him the better side outright, but it supports the idea that he can absorb Rublev’s pace and keep enough pressure on serve to make the favorite work.
Andrey Rublev v Nikoloz Basilashvili Best Bet
- Best Bet: Thiago Agustin Tirante Moneyline (+150) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Basilashvili is playing too well to price this like a simple Rublev cruise, and Rublev’s first two Rome matches have already hovered close enough to the total to make one extended set decisive. The Georgian does not need to take down another giant to cash this angle. He only needs to keep holding serve, drag one set into the late stages, and force Rublev into a more uncomfortable Round of 16 match than the moneyline suggests.
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