British Politics Betting Odds

South Carolina Republicans decide the party’s U.S. Senate nominee on Tuesday, August 25, as interim Sen. Darline Graham faces Rep. Ralph Norman in a special primary runoff. Graham has led the prediction market throughout the race, but a sharp late move toward Norman has turned what once looked like a comfortable advantage into one of Tuesday night’s most competitive election markets.

Karoline Leavitt is preparing to leave the White House press secretary role at the end of August after roughly 19 months behind the podium, opening one of the highest-profile vacancies in the Trump administration. Scott Jennings, Anna Kelly and Natalie Harp have emerged among the leading prediction-market candidates as traders react to a rapidly changing succession race.

Kalshi traders are pricing how low President Donald Trump's approval rating will fall before the end of 2026, with the market increasingly focused on whether the national polling average can break below 37%. With Trump's approval under pressure ahead of the midterm elections, how much further could the decline go before the calendar turns to 2027? Check out the latest Trump approval rating prediction-market odds and outlook.

Wyoming Republicans vote Tuesday, August 18, to choose their nominee for governor, with Eric Barlow entering election night as the clear prediction-market favorite. Megan Degenfelder and Brent Bien remain notable challengers in the four-candidate race, but traders increasingly expect Barlow to emerge with the nomination.

Alaska voters head to the polls on Tuesday, August 18, for a wide-open gubernatorial primary featuring 17 candidates competing for four spots in November's general election. Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson leads the prediction market among the three candidates shown, but Alaska's unusual top-four format leaves multiple candidates with a realistic opportunity to advance.