European Politics Betting Odds

Wyoming Republicans vote Tuesday, August 18, to choose their nominee for governor, with Eric Barlow entering election night as the clear prediction-market favorite. Megan Degenfelder and Brent Bien remain notable challengers in the four-candidate race, but traders increasingly expect Barlow to emerge with the nomination.

Alaska voters head to the polls on Tuesday, August 18, for a wide-open gubernatorial primary featuring 17 candidates competing for four spots in November's general election. Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson leads the prediction market among the three candidates shown, but Alaska's unusual top-four format leaves multiple candidates with a realistic opportunity to advance.

Florida Republicans vote Tuesday, August 18, to choose their nominee for governor, with prediction markets showing an enormous gap between Byron Donalds and James Fishback as voting concludes. Donalds enters primary day as the overwhelming market favorite, while Fishback's probability has collapsed after briefly attracting more attention earlier this year.

Brazil holds the first round of its presidential election on October 4, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva facing Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro. Can the younger Bolsonaro overcome the political baggage surrounding his family and recreate his father’s conservative coalition, or will Lula secure another term?

Israel will hold national elections on October 27, with Gadi Eisenkot now favored over Benjamin Netanyahu to become prime minister afterward. Can Israel’s longest-serving leader pull off another political escape, or will nearly three years of war and mounting pressure finally bring the Netanyahu era to an end?