Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers Picks and Prediction: Mavericks Look to End the Bleeding in Indy
Dallas Mavericks, sitting 12th in the Western Conference at 19-36, travel to face 15th-placed Indiana at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Sunday, February 22, tipping off at 5:00 PM ET. With the Mavericks riding a 10-game losing streak without rookie star Cooper Flagg (left midfoot sprain) alongside season-ending absences from Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II, this matchup pits a rebuilding squad limping through a brutal road stretch (5-19 away) against a Pacers team that is equally shorthanded, missing Tyrese Haliburton for the season and carrying a questionable tag on leading scorer Pascal Siakam, as both franchises sit among the league's worst records and compete at the bottom of their respective conferences in the 2025/2026 campaign.
OC Staff - February 22, 2026, 1:55 PM EST
3 Minute ReadDallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers Picks and Prediction: Mavericks Look to End the Bleeding in Indy
Mavericks vs Pacers Recent Performance
Dallas sits 12th in the West at 19-36 and has dropped 10 straight, including Friday's 122-111 loss to Minnesota where Anthony Edwards dropped 40 and the Mavericks couldn't close despite hanging around until the fourth. The losing streak goes all the way back to January 22nd. Without Kyrie Irving (torn ACL, done for the year), without Dereck Lively II (foot surgery, done for the year), and now without Cooper Flagg in his third straight absence, this is a roster in triage mode. Khris Middleton led Dallas with 18 points in the Wolves loss, stepping into a role that was supposed to belong to a top-five pick.
Indiana is 15th in the East at 15-42 and riding back-to-back losses after back-to-back bad weeks. The Pacers just got embarrassed by Washington twice on the road, including a 131-118 beatdown, and came home with a six-game road trip under their belt and a laundry list of injury question marks. Tyrese Haliburton is already done for the season with an Achilles tear. Now Pascal Siakam, their leading scorer at 23.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, is questionable with a hamstring issue. Andrew Nembhard is also questionable with a back problem. If both of Indiana's best offensive players sit, the Pacers are running out Jarace Walker and Jay Huff as their primary options, and that is not a winning formula for anyone.
Mavericks vs Pacers Head to Head
Dallas and Indiana have met once this season. The Mavericks won 107-105 on October 29th, with Flagg going for 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists in a game that came down to the wire. Indiana holds a 7-3 edge in the last 10 meetings all-time, but recent form and injuries are doing much more work than any historical trend line in this matchup.
Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, February 22, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Indiana, KFAA-TV, Mavs.com, NBA League Pass
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Mavericks vs Pacers Odds
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Mavericks vs Pacers Team News
Dallas has three rotation players locked in as out. Cooper Flagg (left midfoot sprain) misses his third straight game, and with it his 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per night. Kyrie Irving (ACL surgery) and Dereck Lively II (foot surgery) are both season-long absences. Jason Kidd's response when asked about Flagg: "Next man up. That's the best answer." Max Christie (ankle) and Daniel Gafford (ankle) are questionable. Caleb Martin is probable. Marvin Bagley III, acquired in the recent nine-player trade with Washington, has been productive in his four Mavs games, averaging 11.8 points and 9.3 rebounds with nearly five offensive boards a night. Khris Middleton and Naji Marshall (15.1 PPG) carry the offensive load until Flagg gets back, with Klay Thompson providing perimeter depth off the bench.
Indiana's injury report is just as messy. Aaron Nesmith is out with a right ankle sprain. Haliburton is out for the season. Ivica Zubac and Obi Toppin are both out. Pascal Siakam (hamstring), Andrew Nembhard (back), T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Kam Jones (back), and Micah Potter (ankle) are all questionable. If Siakam and Nembhard both can't go, Indiana's offensive ceiling drops dramatically. The Pacers average 111.0 points per game on the season and those two account for a massive share.
Prediction: Mavericks 116, Pacers 112
Two lottery teams meeting at the bottom of their respective conferences sounds like appointment viewing only for tank-watchers, and fair enough. The argument for Dallas here comes down to efficiency math. The Mavericks sit at a -3.4 net rating on the season. Indiana is at -7.4. Dallas is four points better per 100 possessions, and the projection model on this game spits out a virtual pick'em on a neutral floor, which means 2.5 points of home court puts Indiana right at parity at best. Dallas is 5-19 on the road this year, but Indiana is 10-18 at home, and the Pacers just got embarrassed by a Washington team on a two-game winning streak. When Siakam is missing his third straight game and Nembhard is a coin flip, Indiana's offensive engine stalls out. The Mavs aren't good, but they're better than what the last 10 games suggest, and they're catching a Pacers team that's running out of answers.
Best Bet: Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (+100) Click here to get the best odds at bet365 Sportsbook
The market respects Indianapolis as a home floor but the net rating gap doesn't. Dallas is four points per 100 possessions better than Indiana across the full season, and that edge compounds over 100+ possessions even when the Mavericks are shorthanded. The Mavericks are 4-8-1 ATS as favorites this season, but this is one of the better spots: they're catching a Pacers squad missing its best player, potentially its second-best player, and its starting point guard, all at once. Bagley has been a force on the glass since the trade, and Middleton provides veteran shot creation that doesn't depend on Flagg's involvement. Indiana allows 118.7 points per game and ranks among the league's worst defensive units. The Mavericks have been unlucky in close games and they keep losing by single digits. The losing streak ends here.
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