Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Picks and Prediction: Joker Feasts on a Curry-less Chase Center
The Denver Nuggets, sitting 3rd in the Western Conference at 36-21, travel to face 8th-placed Golden State at Chase Center on Sunday, February 22, tipping off at 3:30 PM ET on ABC. With the Nuggets riding a franchise-record 157-point road performance against Portland two days ago and Nikola Jokic posting MVP-caliber numbers across 28.6 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 10.5 assists per game, Denver arrives short-handed but dangerous, missing Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson to hamstring injuries with Jamal Murray questionable, while Golden State counters with their own walking wounded roster, operating without Stephen Curry until at least early March and Jimmy Butler for the season, leaning on Kristaps Porzingis just 48 hours into his Warriors debut as both Western Conference contenders jockey for playoff seeding with every game carrying genuine postseason weight in the 2025-26 campaign.
OC Staff - February 22, 2026, 1:55 PM EST
3 Minute ReadDenver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Picks and Prediction: Joker Feasts on a Curry-less Chase Center
Nuggets vs Warriors Recent Performance
Denver comes in at 36-21 and has won three of its last five, including that absurd 54-point blowout over Portland two days ago. The Nuggets have been a road wrecking crew all season, going 21-10 away from home while hitting the over in 21 of 31 road games. The offensive rating sits at 121.1, one of the better marks in the league, and their 61.6% true shooting is elite. The hangover risk from a 157-point performance on a back-to-back is real, but this is the team that has Nikola Jokic running the show.
Golden State sits at 29-27 and holds the eighth seed in the West, so every game from here out matters. The Warriors have lost three of their last five, including back-to-back home losses to Sacramento and Boston. Kristaps Porzingis made his Golden State debut Thursday, posting 12 points on 5-of-9 shooting in 17 minutes. That's legitimate rim protection and floor spacing the Warriors have desperately needed. The question is how much Porzingis can give them in his second game back from injury.
Nuggets vs Warriors Head to Head
Denver leads the all-time series 110-87, and the teams split their two matchups this season, each covering the spread once. The series tilt historically favors Denver, but Golden State at Chase Center with something to prove changes the dynamic. The Nuggets are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games, while the Warriors are 3-7 ATS over the same stretch.
Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, February 22, 2026
- Time: 3:30 PM ET
- How to Watch: ABC, NBA League Pass
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Nuggets vs Warriors Odds
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Nuggets vs Warriors Team News
Denver is playing shorthanded but still dangerous. Aaron Gordon (hamstring) is out, removing one of the team's most versatile two-way pieces along with his 15.3 points per game. Peyton Watson is also out with a hamstring issue. Jamal Murray is officially questionable with hamstring soreness after going for 25 on 6-of-12 from three against Portland Friday. If Murray sits, Julian Strawther and Tim Hardaway Jr. pick up the slack, which they did combine for 38 against Portland, but their ability to handle Golden State's pressure and avoid turnovers against a team that forces 15.5 per game is a different ask.
Nikola Jokic is simply cooking right now. The three-time MVP is averaging 28.6 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 10.5 assists on 58.6% shooting, and just went 10-of-15 from the field in 29 minutes against Portland Friday. He's the best player on the floor this afternoon by a considerable margin, and no one on Golden State can guard him one-on-one.
Golden State is without Stephen Curry (knee) until early March and Jimmy Butler is done for the season. Draymond Green (8.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.1 APG) will have to do as much connective tissue work as he can. De'Anthony Melton stepped up with 18 points against Boston, and Brandin Podziemski (12.0 PPG, 3.6 APG) remains the primary shot creator in Curry's absence. Porzingis, in just his second game as a Warrior, brings the rim presence that has been missing all season.
Prediction: Nuggets 122, Warriors 114
Denver has too much offensive firepower even short-handed, and Jokic drawing every defensive rotation on the floor means wide open looks for everyone else. Golden State's defense ranks 27th in points allowed since Curry went down, and while Porzingis helps, two games of integration isn't enough to slow a Jokic-led offense running at full tilt. The Nuggets grind this one out.
Best Bet: Over 230.5 (+120) Click here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
The over has hit in eight of Denver's last 10 games, and in each of Golden State's last three. Both teams are combining to average 236.3 points per game this season, a full six points above Sunday's total. Golden State's defensive rating ranks 27th in the league since Curry went down, and Denver plays at a pace that keeps the clock moving with transition buckets and quick Jokic post scores. Porzingis gives the Warriors more rim deterrence than they've had, but he's 48 hours removed from his debut. Without Gordon and Watson anchoring Denver's defense, the Nuggets give up points at a higher rate too. When two offensively gifted teams are both compromised on defense, points pile up. Lock in the over before line movement eats into this value.
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