We look at the permutations in the race for a Premier League Top 4 Finish.
With the end of the season drawing near, the last two top four places are still up for grabs, with four teams still able to take the remaining two places left.
Manchester United fell in the Europa League to Sevilla, meaning they are unable to claim qualification for the Champions League via a Europa League win, so only four English teams will play in next season’s Champions League. The sides outside the top four will have to settle for the Europa League.
What do each team need to finish in the Top 4?
Newcastle
With a best price to finish in the top four of 2/7, the picture for Newcastle is simple. They have three games remaining and they will qualify for the Champions League for the first time since 2002/03 if they win two of those three games, regardless of goal difference. They sit level with Manchester United on 66 points, but hold a goal difference advantage of +22 on the Red Devils.
They host Brighton on Thursday night before playing Leicester City and Chelsea in their last two fixtures. Two wins from their next two can confirm Champions League football for next season before the final day, which will ease the nerves ahead of a final day trip to Stamford Bridge. They can finish on a maximum of 75 points, which neither Liverpool or Brighton can catch.
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Manchester United
The same is true for Manchester United, win two of their last three games and they’ll be playing Champions League football again (1/6 to do so), after playing in the Europa League this season.
Their maximum points tally of 75 points can only be matched by Newcastle, but as long as they get above 71 points, which they will do with two wins, they’ll be back in the Champions League.
71 points could be an issue for the Red Devils, which they can hit with a win and two draws from their last three games, as Liverpool hold a far significant goal difference over them and could finish above them on goal difference should they both finish on 71 points.
United have an away game against Bournemouth before two home games against West London sides Chelsea and Fulham to secure their top four finish.
Liverpool
As for Liverpool, a top four place is not in their hands, and they will need to win their two games left and hope the two sides above them don’t win two of their last three games, meaning they are a best price of 8/5 to secure a top four finish.
Their maximum points tally they can reach is 71, which both Newcastle and Manchester United can get above with two wins from their last three games. Liverpool have won their last seven league games, but the impressive run of form might be too late.
Poor defeats away from home at Wolves, Bournemouth, Brentford and Nottingham Forest derailed their season. They’ve picked up just 22 points on the road this season with one away game left against already relegated Southampton on the final day, a big drop off from last season’s tally of 43 points away from home.
Brighton
Despite a best price of a top four finish of 40/1, the Seagulls have had an extraordinary season, sitting in their highest ever league position and reached the FA Cup semi-finals.
Whilst they will be delighted with a Europa League finish, their chances of a Champions League finish are highly improbable, but not impossible. They have four games left to play against Newcastle, Southampton, Manchester City and Aston Villa and can reach a maximum points tally of 70 points.
All three of the teams above them in the race for top four could go above that target with two wins, and it would involve some unlikely results if Brighton were to sneak in to the top four places at the end of the season. It will be interesting to see how close they can come, which will be a real indication of how far they have come as a club and as a squad.
Premier League Top 4 Odds
| Team | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 2/7 | 1/7 |
| Manchester United | 1/6 | 2/11 |
| Liverpool | 8/5 | 6/5 |
| Brighton | 40/1 | 28/1 |
