PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is here with his latest power rankings ahead of Round 1 on Thursday from Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake, England.
PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 Golfers For 2023 Open Championship
The fourth and final major championship of the PGA Tour is set to get underway this week from Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake, England. The last time The Open Championship was hosted at this course, back in 2014, Rory McIlroy won with a final scorecard of -17-under-par, beating Sergio Garcia and Rickie Fowler by two strokes.
McIlroy is fresh off of an outright win at the Genesis Scottish Open, nailing an iconic approach shot to sink a 12-foot birdie putt for his first victory on the PGA Tour since the CJ Cup back in October.
Oddsmakers currently value the veteran Irishman as the outright betting favorite in his return to Royal Liverpool, as McIlroy (15/2) and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (8/1) favourites are both to secure the outright win at The Open Championship this week.
Scheffler has been on an improbable run, consistently finishing T12 or better since October, while recording seven consecutive T5 finishes entering The Open Championship. The Texas native's irons have been well-documented as the strongest part of his game, while his putting has held him back from logging a couple more outright wins on the PGA Tour this year.
Jon Rahm already has four outright wins, including his first win at The Masters, but he's cooled off lately, missing a cut and recording a T50 finish in two of his previous four events.
Fowler returns to Royal Liverpool after ending his four-year outright win drought during a clutch playoff win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic a couple of weeks ago. He's currently 25/1 to win, joining Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, and Xander Schauffele.
The three recent Open Championship winners are all sitting outside of the top three outright odds leaderboard, with defending champion Cameron Smith at 18/1, Collin Morikawa sitting at 35/1, and Shane Lowry not far behind at 33/1 odds.
Let's find out when the opening tee times will occur, how to watch The Open Championship, and then take a closer look at the current outright betting odds. We'll follow that up with a course preview of Royal Liverpool Golf Club, then reveal my top-5 power rankings explaining why we should be betting on each of the players' outright odds during the 151st Open Championship.
Click here to read Niall Lyons' 2023 Open Championship tips and preview.
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Open Championship Course
Royal Liverpool Golf Club has undergone significant renovations since it last hosted The Open Championship in 2014. Overseen by Martin Ebert, this course went from a par 72 to a par 71, removing the par 5 10th hole, while maintaining over 500 yards, making it a lengthy par 4 at the turn.
Like any links golf course, Royal Liverpool replaces water and tree hazards with tall fescue rough, coastal winds, and deep pot bunkers to punish errant tee shots and approach shots alike.
Players who start on the front-nine will open with four consecutive par 4s, while the 18th hole is a lengthy 602-yard par 5 that should create plenty of dramatic finishes. Fescue greens measure 11 to 11.5 feet via Stimpmeter, which is slower than the Bentgrass and Bermuda greens that typically comprise putting surfaces in the United States.
Slower putt velocity means players won't be afraid to let the flat stick rip, especially in wet conditions. Three par 5s remain for players to generate birdies, and possibly eagles, on a course that rewards iron precision.
| Name | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlory | 15/2 | 11/2 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 8/1 | 7/1 |
| Jon Rahm | 14/1 | 10/1 |
| Cameron Smith | 18/1 | 12/1 |
| Brooks Koepka | 22/1 | 16/1 |
2023 Open Championship Power Rankings | Matt MacKay Outright Bets
Scottie Scheffler 7/1
Scottie Scheffler has been the definition of consistency this season, brandishing the PGA Tour's top-ranked irons in nearly every strokes-gained category. Yes, his putter is a liability, but it's not as big of a deal on slow-paced fescue greens.
We're obligated to bet Scheffler at any number, especially while he searches for his first major win of the year during the fourth and final major event. His putter looked sharp at Renaissance Club last week, so let's pony up a multi-unit wager to place on the World No. 1 ranked golfer.
Tommy Fleetwood 29/1
I know, the narrative of Tommy Fleetwood being unable to close out on the PGA Tour continues after a disappointing final round at the Scottish Open. However, I expect Fleetwood to use it as motivation to start and finish stronger than he did a week ago. Fleetwood possesses plenty of enticing metrics, ranking seventh in strokes gained tee-to-green, seventh around the green, and 30th putting.
His driver is solid, his irons are sharp, and links courses are familiar to the 32-year-old Englishman. At 25/1, I love Fleetwood's outright odds once again, so let's put half a unit on him to finally emerge with his first win on the PGA Tour in a major event, just like Matt Fitzpatrick accomplished at the U.S. Open in 2022.
Shane Lowry 33/1
Shane Lowry won The Open Championship at Royal Portrush in 2019 and he looked the part during his play at Renaissance Club, drawing a T12 finish. Lowry started and finished poorly, which is concerning, but he has the talent and skill set to improve, especially on a links course. The Irishman is ranked ninth in total driving, 16th tee-to-green, 13th approaching the green, and 34th in hole proximity.
The putter needs to improve, but I'm willing to wager half a unit at +3500 for Lowry to end his four-year winning slump with his third career victory and second major championship at Royal Liverpool this week, where he previously logged a T9 finish in 2014.
Brian Harman 125/1
We're all the way down in the 125/1 and longer odds for Brian Harman, but he's been one of the best iron players on the PGA Tour in recent weeks. This includes a T12 finish at the Scottish Open, where Harman went -3-under-par or better in the first three rounds, before imploding with a +4 final round to drop out of contention.
Harman has improved at every Open Championship since missing the cut four consecutive times, logging T19 at Royal St. George's in 2021 and a T6 finish at St. Andrews last year. At 120/1 odds, let's wager a quarter unit on the Georgia native's strong iron play.
Nicolai Højgaard 150/1
22-year-old Nicolai Højgaard was impressive during the Scottish Open, recording a -7-under-par round to climb into a T6 finish. The Denmark native has not fared well at previous Open Championship events, missing the cut in 2018 and logging a T53 finish at St. Andrews in 2022.
However, as unlikely as this pick may appear, other previous Open Championship winners, like Lowry, have bounced back in a massive way after a missed cut or poor finish at the previous Open Championship. Let's invest a quarter unit and wager on Højgaard's ridiculously lucrative 170/1 odds to win the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.
